Optimism about the 2024 NFL season has not been overflowing for the New York Giants, neither among their fans nor among the (supposed) football intelligentsia. For example, Pro Football Focus recently ranked the Giants 31st out of 32 NFL teams heading into the season, falling short with a projected total of 6.5 wins. That means they don’t think the Giants have improved at all since 2023, when they went 6-11.
They’re not alone: NFL.com ranks them 27th, KeynoteUSA has them 28th (no effect from drafting Malik Nabers), KeynoteUSA Sports ranks them 29th, Fox Sports ranks them 30th. (with no anticipated effect of any of their off-season moves), and The Athletic has them at No. 27. Even their hometown New York Post only has them at No. 25. Sports Illustrated at least ranked them at No. 20. Judging by the Giants’ Twitter discourse, I would informally estimate that segment of the fandom ranks the Giants no higher than No. 33 (behind at least one college or UFL team).
But are things that bad? The Giants were not the worst team in the NFL in 2023 (the proof is that if they were, they would have a new quarterback this year). They beat two playoff teams, Green Bay and Philadelphia, and only lost three more games against playoff opponents (the Rams, Buffalo and Philadelphia for the second time). Yes, they lost Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney and Tyrod Taylor in free agency. On the other hand, they signed several free agents who should help and found some interesting players in the Draft. How do you weigh the gains and losses?
Back in March, we discussed a method used by Kevin Cole of the Unexpected Points blog to evaluate how much a given addition to a team improves that team’s Expected Points Added (EPA) relative to a generic replacement-level player. The approach uses a “Plus/Minus” metric that estimates how well a particular player has performed relative to the typical player in his “type,” where “type” is not just the position he plays but what he is like. used as defined by various standard NFL statistics (e.g., primarily slot versus primarily wide receivers, but also number of routes, yards per route, etc.).
At that time, only the results of the first week of free agency were available and the NFL Draft had not yet occurred. Cole has now updated the results to include all free agency to date plus the draft. That’s a lot of players, so let’s focus on the NFC East, which is of most interest to Giants fans. Here are the division’s Over/Under rankings for new players:
Courtesy of unexpected points
Not surprisingly, the Washington Commanders‘ selection of quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second pick in the draft is rated as the division’s biggest addition. The Giants are doing quite well, with many high-value additions, including the second (Jermaine Eluemunor), third (Brian Burns) and fifth (Jon Runyan Jr.) most valuable players on the roster; Note also that Aaron Stinnie is No. 12 even though he is not expected to start.
Malik Nabers is there too, at No. 11, the second-highest ranked rookie in the division, but you might be surprised to find him just above Stinnie instead of closer to the top. This is because even “replacement level” receivers do some good things and, at worst, are ignored in favor of the team’s best receivers, which has little effect on expected points, while “Replacement level” offensive linemen may be directly responsible for making plays happen. ruined by the defense and contributing negative expected points (due to sacks, rushing losses, etc.). Saquon Barkley was the only Giant to lose to a team in the division, but his Over/Under impact in Philadelphia is less than Eluemunor and Runyan’s for the Giants. That’s not an attack on Barkley, but rather a reflection of the fact that in the current NFL value system, OL > RB.
Cole also calculates an “Improvement Rate” for each team based on the players they have gained and those they have lost. The improvement rate per added player is based on the same Plus/Minus concept, weighting factors such as projected playing time, opponents, etc., but with another important factor: the estimated improvement is relative to the replaced player and not a Generic replacement level player. Cole doesn’t say it, but the 2023 players who will be replaced on the Giants’ OL in 2024 could have been worse than the generic replacement-level offensive line on many teams.
Here is the improvement rate for all 32 NFL teams:
Courtesy of unexpected points
Atlanta leads all NFL teams in projected improvements. That’s because they signed Kirk Cousins, by far the most valuable player who changed teams in the offseason, to replace Desmond Ridder.
The Giants, however, sit fourth on the list, well above Washington and miles beyond Philadelphia and Dallas, both of which are estimated to have lost significant value in the offseason. Washington isn’t ranked higher because it lost as many decent starting players (e.g. Kendall Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Kamren Curl) as it gained. Philadelphia lost key players like Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Dallas did little in free agency and lost multiple offensive and defensive linemen. More to the point, however, the players these teams added didn’t improve much over the ones they’re replacing. For example, the Eagles added pass rusher Bryce Huff… but lost Haason Reddick.
That’s something fans tend to not think about enough. It’s not just that the Giants added two decent offensive linemen in free agency. It’s that they will replace linemen who performed terribly last season. If Jermaine Eluemunor and Jon Runyan Jr. allow the Giants to run Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka’s offense, it will be a big improvement over 2023, even if neither is Pro Bowl-caliber. That will be true whether Eluemunor ends up at guard (hopefully) or right tackle (if Evan Neal doesn’t show progress). Regardless of what you think of Brian Burns relative to the league’s best edge defenders, the relevant question is: How good is he compared to whoever the Giants had running the right side last year? Azeez Ojulari missed time again due to injury and didn’t do much when he was on the field. Jihad Pavilion? Boogie Basham? They could have lined up a blocking dummy on the right side for all the good those players did. So Burns is no Myles Garrett, but relative to his Giants counterparts last season, the improvement is huge.
Otherwise, the 9.7 points added by Nabers relative to a generic WR are probably about the same amount in the improvement rate calculation, as the Giants’ only losses at WR will be at the bottom of the depth chart . Second-round safety Tyler Nubin’s 4.9 points made up for more than half of the 8.6 points lost by McKinney’s departure. Devin Singletary’s 5.4 points made up for about half of the 10.6 lost from Saquon Barkley’s departure (and D’Andre Swift’s departure to Chicago makes up for about half of Barkley’s gain for the Eagles).
Of course, it’s not just the players. Philadelphia has presumably upgraded its coaching staff with Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio as the new offensive and defensive coordinators. Dallas now has Brian Schottenheimer and Mike Zimmer in those roles. Washington has an entirely new staff led by Dan Quinn with Kliff Kingsbury and Joe Whitt Jr. running the offense and defense. Meanwhile, the big question for the Giants is whether Shane Bowen will be as effective or more effective than Wink Martindale as defensive coordinator. The second big question is whether new offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo can fix Neal specifically and get better results from the offensive line overall.
It’s hard to say whether those coaching changes favor any NFC team more than others, although it’s hard to imagine Moore and Fangio not being better than the circus the Eagles had on their coaching staff, especially on the defensive end, Last season. That said, Moore’s record as an offensive coordinator is somewhat checkered and he may not be an ideal match for Jalen Hurts. Washington will likely be better with Quinn, but will Dallas’ offense be as good under Schottenheimer?
If you believe Cole, the Giants have made huge strides this offseason, while the Eagles and Cowboys regressed considerably personnel-wise. Will that be enough for the Giants to compete in the division? They finished 3-3 in the NFC East in 2023 and were competitive in both Eagles games, winning one. It’s Dallas that is now more of the Giants’ enemy.
Interestingly, the Giants’ projected improvement in the chart above is only slightly less than Chicago’s. The Bears were only one game better than the Giants last season, however, they are now considered a chance to compete in their division even though their offseason roster changes are not considered dramatically better than the Giants’. . However, The Athletic ranks them at No. 13, Fox ranks them at No. 15, and KeynoteUSA ranks them at No. 16. That’s mostly a reflection of the quarterback situation. If Caleb Williams is the next CJ Stroud, it makes sense. But Bryce Young, Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the counterarguments for a high-profile rookie quarterback to parachute into the NFL and become a star.
Let’s face it, for the Giants it’s all about the offensive line, no matter who lines up behind center. Malik Nabers seemed pretty quarterback-proof in OTAs. If he turns out to be as good in real games, freeing up Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson to be covered by opponents’ CB2 and CB3, then the offensive line will have a lot to say about whether 2024 is a Year to remember or forget.
Keynote USA
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