The Royals have been on a six-game winning streak, and while the offense appears to be firing on all cylinders, there is some cause for concern. The bottom of the lineup has struggled to get going offensively, with outfielders MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe among the worst hitters in baseball. Kyle Isbel and Nelson Velázquez have also had slow starts. In fact, collectively, Royals outfielders are hitting .201/.261/.327, giving them a wRC+ of 65, the worst in baseball.
The Royals are in contention early in the season and place a premium on winning each game. Their evaluation phase from last season is over, raising questions about how patient they should be with MJ Melendez as she continues to slump. But it seems clear, seven weeks into the season, that the Royals need to make some changes in the outfield.
Royal Gardeners
Player | Outings in the gardens | Pennsylvania | licensed in letters | OBA | SLG | fWAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Outings in the gardens | Pennsylvania | licensed in letters | OBA | SLG | fWAR |
MJ Melendez | 40 | 155 | .179 | .232 | .3. 4. 5 | -0.2 |
hunter renfroe | 38 | 144 | .160 | .236 | .282 | -0.9 |
isbel | 38 | 140 | .214 | .259 | .344 | 0.1 |
Dairon Blanco | 12 | 54 | .250 | .308 | .375 | -0.1 |
Garrett Hampson | eleven | 58 | .264 | .304 | .321 | 0.3 |
Nelson Velazquez | 10 | 146 | .226 | .295 | .368 | -0.2 |
Adam Frazier | 4 | 111 | .188 | .197 | .250 | -0.4 |
The Royals have internal options they could turn to. Drew Waters, the switch-hitter the team acquired from the Braves in 2022, almost made the Opening Day roster this year. He went to Triple-A and hit .302/.373/.504 with eight steals and could at least provide solid defense and speed. The 25-year-old has been a bit disappointing in 445 career MLB plate appearances, but his .231/.306/.402 line would still represent a major improvement over what they have been getting the Royals.
Then there’s Nick Loftin, the former first-round pick whom the Royals praised effusively when he was selected, even suggesting they considered him with the No. 4 overall pick. Loftin homered for the third time in 21 games for Omaha last night and is batting .301 /.402/.494 in Triple-A overall. His time in the big leagues has been much more limited, but he has held his own, hitting .308/.369/.385 in 103 plate appearances.
JJ Picollo has talked about wanting players on the roster with options, giving flexibility to the team’s roster. They have it with Meléndez and Velázquez, and either of them can be sent to the minors without risking losing the player. So why haven’t the Royals made what seems like an obvious move?
Many have suggested that perhaps the Royals are stashing Waters and Loftin in the minors to preserve their trade value, lest they be exposed in the big leagues. Perhaps that could be the team’s thinking, but if so, it makes little sense.
First, it’s harder than ever to make the transition from Triple-A to the Major Leagues. A player who wins in the minors will not necessarily perform at the major league level. That might be why the Royals don’t believe Waters or Loftin are an upgrade over what they have now, but it also shoots down the idea that protecting big league players will increase their trade value. Waters has already proven that he can hit in the minors, the only way he can increase his limited trade value is to hit at the major league level.
Second, the Royals are in a pennant race right now. Depriving yourself of a player who could help your offense and keep you in contention so you can trade him in July is shortsighted. Victories matter now. Any help, even at the margins, is important. If the team doesn’t maximize its chances of success now, there may not be a reason to make a midseason trade if the team is left out.
Finally, if we’re being honest, Waters and Loftin won’t be the centerpiece of a deal. They now project as role players, who could still make positive contributions at the big league level! – but the trade value is more of a complement to a deal that would surround a younger prospect with more potential. There is little commercial value to protect there.
The Royals most likely believe in the players they have in the Major Leagues. They selected these players and are making the calculation that the players they have now project to outperform their internal alternatives. Are they correct in those projections? Melendez certainly has some decent underlying metrics, but he is trending in the wrong direction and looks lost at the plate. Velazquez may be warming up a bit, but ZIPS doesn’t project him to be above replacement level the rest of the way. The Royals certainly have more information than we do. But they must be correct in their evaluation.
Perhaps the solution will come at the end of this summer through a transfer or signing. But the Royals can make changes now, and while things are going well this week, the outfield will eventually need to produce to keep the good times going.
Keynote USA
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