Nothing that’s about to be said, nothing that happened as they lost two of three to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, should detract from a broader view of the New York Yankees‘ season.
Without Gerrit Cole throwing a single pitch, the Yankees are 25 games over .500, owners of the best record in the American League. If Cole and Juan Soto return healthy, their first World Series title since 2009 would finally appear to be within reach.
But just as the Dodgers have discovered that spending $1.4 billion in the offseason couldn’t buy an entire roster, the Yankees are discovering that their $300 million payroll only goes so far.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo’s struggles are a problem. Second baseman Gleyber Torres is unreliable defensively. Third baseman DJ LeMahieu needs to regain form after missing two months with a non-displaced fracture in his right foot. And the bullpen, while performing well, could use more swing-and-fall.
The current Yankees team is more balanced than the one that won 103 games in 2019, leading the American League in runs during the regular season but finishing 14th in ERA. That team saw its offense exposed by the Astros in the American League Championship Series, scoring just 14 runs in the final five games of a six-game loss.
These Yankees make better contact, presenting a greater challenge for opposing pitchers, thanks to the additions of Soto and Alex Verdugo. They entered Sunday seventh in the majors in runs per game, but first (again, even without Cole) in ERA.
We are presented with a rare opportunity. The trade deadline is seven weeks away. Tough decisions await general manager Brian Cashman, the kind of decisions that could take the Yankees from a mere World Series contender to a legitimate favorite. For a team in this position, even marginal improvements can make a big difference.
These are the areas that require the most scrutiny:
First baseman: Rizzo reeling
Is this just a rough 66-game stretch, or is Rizzo in steep decline as he approaches his 35th birthday in August?
Teams in this era of advanced data often justify a hitter’s poor performance by citing underlying metrics that indicate better days could be ahead. The Yankees can’t make that argument with Rizzo. From bat speed to exit velocity to chase percentage, his Baseball Savant page is a storm of negativity, showing one metric after another in the bottom 20 percent of the league.
Rizzo, 1-for-29 in June, was out of the lineup Sunday and could be out of the lineup Monday as well. His .284 slugging percentage against starting pitchers is the lowest in the majors. Since 2022 (and including his concussion-marred 2023 season), his .235 batting average against fastballs is the second-lowest, ahead of only the Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho. And it’s not like his defense is still an advantage.
The most damning Rizzo number of all?
His OPS-plus entering Sunday was 23 percent below average. Josh Donaldson’s OPS-plus when the Yankees released him last August 29 was 26 percent off.
Rizzo is more important to the clubhouse than Donaldson, and is particularly close to Aaron Judge. He is also owed about $10 million in salary plus a $6 million buyout, while Donaldson was owed just under $4 million. So the Yankees aren’t ready to give up on him just yet.
Anthony Rizzo after being fouled last week against the Twins. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
“There’s no question that the last two or three weeks, especially, it’s been a little difficult,” Boone said Sunday. “When you go through this and make small adjustments, they don’t always work right away. You go out and… ‘Oh, that adjustment didn’t happen right away.’ Maybe you’ll go back to something different.
“…Sometimes it is a process. Sometimes you have to make small wins along the way to get where you need to go and sometimes by being patient with that, which is hard when you’re going through this as a player, you have to have a little bit of that. “
Such an approach is reasonable with a player of Rizzo’s stature, at least in early June. The Yankees could always move LeMahieu to first and play Oswaldo Cabrera at third, as they did Sunday night. However, that plan would only make sense in the long term if LeMahieu revives. It might also be a stretch considering Cabrera seems more like a utility player.
Which makes a trade for a first or third baseman increasingly likely (in theory, at least).
The Yankees probably wouldn’t displace Rizzo for the Marlins’ Josh Bell, the first baseman most likely to be traded. A crosstown deal for the Mets’ Pete Alonso would spark a fan rebellion at Citi Field. The Rays and Blue Jays would also be reluctant to trade Yandy Diaz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. within the division when each is under club control beyond this season.
Third, the Rockies only seem to move players when they’re miserable or overpaid, and Ryan McMahon doesn’t qualify as either. It’s fun to think about how Yankees fans would rationalize seeing Alex Bregman in a pinstripe suit. It’s also pure fantasy, considering Astros owner Jim Crane’s reluctance to budge.
Second base: The curious case of Torres
It’s a different scenario than the one involving Rizzo. The fear is not that Torres, 27, is finished, although as a potential free agent, he could soon be done with the Yankees.
Torres’ offense is fine, even if his 24.4 percent strikeout rate entering Sunday was his highest since his rookie season in 2018. He had a .550 OPS in late April, but he’s at . 725 since May 1, still significantly below his career. He hit .789 to start the season, but well above the league average of .698.
The Yankees would probably be fine with it if Torres also didn’t make 10 errors, tied for second in the majors behind Elly De La Cruz, who has 11. Torres’ advanced metrics (he entered Sunday ranked 13th among second basemen in Outs above average). and ninth in Defensive Runs Saved: he shows that he is still capable of making plays. But his lapses in concentration, as best demonstrated by the popup of him falling on Friday night, are alarming.
The problem is: where else can the Yankees turn?
LeMahieu can’t play every position in the infield. Jon Berti, 34, is not close to returning from a left calf strain. Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe’s former rival for the shortstop job, has a .594 OPS in Triple A. Caleb Durbin, the top internal option to replace Torres next season, can’t be expected to be a savior when only He has played 48 games. above Double A.
Torres, then, will likely remain in second position the rest of the season. But the Yankees might be holding their breath for every ball they hit in October.
The bullpen: Looking for puffs
Some might ask: What’s the problem? The Yankees entered Sunday second only to the Guardians in bullpen ERA. The problem is that his relievers don’t miss enough bats, at least by today’s standards. The bullpen’s strikeout percentage was 21st in the majors.
Aside from Clay Holmes and the newly dominant Luke Weaver, who does Boone really trust? Ian Hamilton, coming off big success in 2023, has been inconsistent. The same goes for lefties Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez, both acquired from the Dodgers during the offseason, and Tommy Kahnle, who is frequently injured.
A rampaging lefty like Tanner Scott or the Marlins’ Andrew Nardi would be ideal, but the Yankees will likely pursue any reliever with high strikeout potential, no matter what hand he pitches with. A right-hander like Michael Kopech of the White Sox would be among the many possibilities.
The acquisition cost for a pre-arbitration reliever like Nardi or Mason Miller and the A’s Lucas Erceg would be considerably higher, but the Yankees aren’t necessarily opposed to that route. They acquired Scott Effross as a pre-arbitration reliever in 2022, giving up Hayden Wesneski.
One internal option: Clarke Schmidt, assuming he recovers well from his lat strain and assuming the Yankees don’t need him back in their rotation. Before his injury, Schmidt increased his strikeout rate from 21.5 percent in 2023 to a career-high 27.1 percent in 2024. His relief talent could improve further.
Soto: A necessary piece, for 2024 and beyond
The Yankees glimpsed their potential future without Soto over the weekend, and they looked like… well, the pre-Soto Yankees, the version that was much easier for pitchers to handle.
Verdugo, who entered Sunday with the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in the league, has played a significant, if less celebrated, role in the transformation of the Yankees’ offense. Like Soto, he is in his walking year. The Yankees, trying to balance their payroll, will likely replace him with Jasson Dominguez, making re-signing Soto even more critical.
If we remove Soto and Judge, the team’s No. 2 and No. 3 hitters, the rest of the lineup, as a whole, is about league average. The Orioles, in particular, are better in those other spots. So are several other clubs, including the Guardians, who came in third in the majors on Sunday in runs per game after finishing 27th last season.
Another bat or two would make the Yankees that much more formidable. They’re already pretty good, yes. But as the deadline approaches, Cashman will be operating under renewed pressure.
Try to discover which deficiencies require more attention. Exploring every avenue you can to improve your team. Looking for every possible advantage, in the year in which the Yankees will surely have Soto to win a World Series.
— The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty contributed to this story.
(Top photo of Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres: Jim McIsaac//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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