Editor’s note: Sheng Peng will be a regular contributor to Keynote USA Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.
Who couldn’t help the San Jose Sharks improve next season?
When you’re arguably the worst team of the salary cap era (the Sharks’ -150 goal differential last season was the largest since the Ottawa Senators‘ -196 in 1993-94), it seems like practically half from the NHL would be an improvement.
Then, of course, top UFAs like center Sam Reinhart, winger Steven Stamkos and defenseman Brady Skjei could make a difference. Of course, big-name trade targets like Mitch Marner, Martin Necas and Nikolaj Ehlers would be great additions.
But realistically?
The Sharks need to balance that desperate need to create a more positive and competitive environment for star prospects Will Smith and expected No. 1 overall Draft pick Macklin Celebrini to enter, perhaps as early as next year, without going overboard.
The Sharks aren’t close enough to Stanley Cup playoff contention, where they would be attractive to an older free agent accustomed to winning, like Stamkos, or where it would make sense to offer a 29-year-old 50-goal scorer. like Reinhart, a maximum contract.
Likewise, they are not yet in a good position to offer significant assets to land a star like Marner via trade.
Simply put, the Sharks must improve considerably next season, but without seriously mortgaging their future. At this point in their rebuild, it remains crucial to retain their future first-round picks and avoid handing out long, potentially crippling contracts.
So, with that in mind, here are four positions of need the Sharks need to address, along with most likely trade or free agent targets.
Haute couture insurance
Let’s assume center Logan Couture, who was only able to play six games last year, is unable to start the 2024-25 NHL season.
That leaves little depth at center for the Sharks, after Mikael Granlund, Nico Sturm and likely Celebrini.
Smith is a natural center, but having two teenagers to anchor key roles in the middle could be a recipe for disaster. Still, Wing might be a more ideal place for Smith to start his NHL career.
So, San José could use another veteran center who has mid-level skills, is very competitive and will be a great example for the young players. If you could clone Couture or Granlund, that would be ideal.
But if not, the cap-strapped New York Islanders could be looking to cut some salary.
Could the Sharks trade for Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has two years left on his contract for $5 million AAV?
“It almost seems like they can’t move forward without moving him, considering his cap (holding),” Andrew Fantucchio of NYI Hockey Now told San Jose Hockey Now.
Keep in mind that the 31-year-old has a 16-team no-trade clause.
But the Islanders’ alternate captain is a more defensively inclined, all-purpose center who has averaged about half a point per game since 2019-20. His production dropped to 11 goals and 22 assists in 82 games last year.
But the 5-foot-11 center is a solid addition that should come at a reasonable acquisition cost.
So if Couture is healthy? That’s just a huge advantage.
Courageous scoring winger
General manager Mike Grier has consistently talked about making the Sharks harder to play against.
A Pageau helps in that regard.
But the Sharks also need help on the wing, a highly competitive player who has a scoring touch in the middle and who defends his teammates.
Let’s include Will Smith, William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund, Luke Kunin, Klim Kostin, Filip Zadina and Justin Bailey in the wing lineup.
Thomas Bordeleau and Danil Gushchin are also knocking on the door.
Could free agent Dakota Joshua be a solid addition to this mix?
The 6-foot-3 Joshua blossomed with a career-high 18 goals in 63 games last season, also leading the Vancouver Canucks in hits and tying for the team lead in fights.
At 27 years old, he could be a late bloomer.
AFP Analytics predicts, on May 20, that UFA will sign a four-year contract with an AAV of $3.253 million.
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🚨Our 2024-2025 #NHL Contract screenings are live! Final projections, comparable players/contracts, and a new tax/take home pay section can be found in the following document: https://t.co/BYLLymUBCd
– AFP Analysis (@AFPAnalytics) May 20, 2024
Not one, but two defenders
On a team full of weaknesses, the defense might have been the ugliest on the Sharks last season.
They couldn’t kill plays or move the puck (essentially, they couldn’t do much of anything right), so adding well-rounded defenders should be the priority.
The Sharks could use at least two complete blueliners who belong higher on the depth chart than current lefties Mario Ferraro, Henry Thrun, Shakir Mukhamadullin and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and righties Jan Rutta, Matt Benning, Ty Emberson. and Kyle Burroughs.
There’s a chain reaction: Pushing players like Ferraro down the lineup improves the entire defense. For example, instead of Ferraro playing his usual 23-plus minutes, dropping him to the 19-20 range is probably better for him and the team.
So maybe a pair of UFA righties like Dylan DeMelo and Sean Walker would be a good fit?
An NHL scout outside the Sharks organization believes DeMelo and Walker should be a little less in demand than the bigger middle-class names on the market, such as Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev.
Offensively, both DeMelo (31 points) and Walker (29) would have led Sharks defensemen in that category, ahead of current leader Ferraro (21). Neither are true power quarterbacks, but they are capable of moving the puck.
Defensively, both DeMelo and Walker are very competitive defenders who can handle tough matchups, and they are also penalty kill games.
Ideally, he’d like bigger (DeMelo is 6-foot-1, Walker 5-foot-11) and younger (DeMelo is 31, Walker is 30) blueliners, but beggars can’t be choosers. And his will to fight makes up for a lot.
Ideally, DeMelo and Walker are middle rearguards on a deeper team, but at least they shouldn’t look as overmatched as Sharks D was last year in high-leverage situations.
AFP Analytics projects that DeMelo will get a four-year deal with an AAV of $5.3 million and Walker will get a three-year deal with an AAV of $4.63 million.
Projected lines
“Definitely (plausible),” the scout, who examined these needs and additions to the roster, told SJHN.
The Sharks will likely have to overpay players like Joshua, DeMelo and Walker, but with more than $30 million in cap space at their disposal, they can afford it. They are risks, but not significant risks.
Make no mistake: This theoretical Sharks team won’t make the playoffs:
Eklund-Granlund-Kostin
Joshua-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Kunin-Pageau-Will Smith
Zadina-Sturm-Bailey
Ferraro-DeMelo
Thrun Walker
Mukhamadullin-Benning
Mackenzie Blackwood
Vitek Vanecek
But it should be a more competitive group that will create a more positive environment for Celebrini and Smith to develop.
And that’s the point: Don’t put the weight of the world on Celebrini and Smith until they’re ready for it.
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