The Hotline mailbag is published weekly. Send your questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or contact me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
The Pac-12 needs to reorganize before turning into a pumpkin in the summer of 2026. To do this, it will likely need to establish membership by the summer of 2025. This could be difficult with all the current realignment turbulence. What would happen if Washington State and Oregon State tried to get a deadline extension? – Dave Bakken
As for the timeline, yes: ‘Pac-2’ schools have about a year to execute their strategy in order to rebuild the conference by the summer of 2026, when their two-year grace period expires.
Membership changes take at least nine months, and usually between 12 and 15, due to legal and financial components.
If the Cougars and Beavers plan to poach the Mountain West, or execute a reverse merger with MW, or invite teams from other leagues, they must have firm plans for next spring.
But they may not have complete clarity at that time on the realignment, especially as it relates to the ACC turbulence.
What you call “an extension,” the Hotline views as an exemption. And we’ve been mulling over that idea for months, to the point where we asked the NCAA for clarity on the process.
If WSU and OSU believe that flexibility is paramount and determine that buying time is the appropriate course of action, could they request a waiver to extend the two-year grace period?
After all, the NCAA landscape has changed dramatically in the nine months since Cal and Stanford agreed to join the ACC and the ‘Pac-2’ became a reality.
Several months ago, we posed the following question to an NCAA spokesperson (via email):
“If schools wanted to extend the legislated two-year grace period to a third year, would that require a waiver? What NCAA body/committee would handle something like that?
The NCAA’s response:
“Generally, the Division I Board of Directors (composed of representatives from other Division I schools) would have the final say on membership status and related matters, including an extension of the grace period.”
Would the D-1 board accept a waiver? La Línea Directa does not wish to negotiate with the NCAA on any issue.
We are also not convinced that extending this period of purgatory is the optimal course of action for WSU and OSU. The longer they are adrift as a two-team conference, the greater the risk of irrelevance.
Put another way: We will re-evaluate after football season.
The Cougars and Beavers will have a lot of eyes on them this fall, thanks to a large number of games broadcast on television and the unprecedented nature of their situation.
If they win regularly, if they get into the national rankings and produce an upset or two and are bowl eligible, they will get a lot of attention. They would be part of the national narrative.
But if they struggle on the field, ‘Pac-2’ schools will quickly lose traction.
Any loss of traction in the fall of 2024 will make it extremely difficult to return to relevance. Extending the NCAA grace period to a third or fourth year in that environment would be counterproductive.
It all depends on his performance this fall. Before requesting a waiver and extending their purgatory, the Cougars and Beavers need to win.
What are the pros and cons of private equity in college athletics? And what do you think about the Big 12 rumors of a private equity deal? — @kmasterman
We have several thoughts on KeynoteUSA Sports’ report that the Big 12 is pursuing a private equity deal that would exchange a 15 to 20 percent ownership stake in the conference for roughly $1 billion.
A Hotline column on that very topic will be published early next week.
But there is one point worth mentioning here and now: The success of any capital deal would depend on schools making wise use of the cash injection.
Major college athletic departments aren’t exactly known for their fiscal efficiency. The nature of its ecosystem, with the endless search for recruits and so many money-losing sports, means expenses exceed income.
In some cases, expenses far exceed income.
(Arizona and Arizona State are two excellent examples. If direct cash transfers and central campus loans are eliminated, the two athletic departments produced an operating deficit of $87.2 million in fiscal year 2023.)
If schools manage their expenses better, a private equity deal could be beneficial and allow them to maximize cash for competitive purposes.
If they mismanage budgets, the parameters of an equity agreement could be disastrous.
What would be the benefit and likelihood of the Big Ten adding Stanford and Cal, should the ACC fall apart? — @CelestialMosh
The benefits are clear, especially from the perspective of the Big Ten presidents.
Cal and Stanford are elite academic schools with well-connected alumni networks, deep donor bases (especially Stanford), vital ties to Big Tech, and fabulous Olympic sports. Additionally, there are tens of thousands of Big Ten alumni in the Bay Area.
But convincing Big Ten presidents of their institutional value is less than half the challenge for Cal and Stanford.
They must convince Fox executives of their media value, because none of the Big Ten presidents will approve Cal and Stanford’s membership if expansion means the loss of a single dollar in media rights distributions.
Fox would have to finance the move, and Fox didn’t think the Bears and Cardinal were worth it last summer.
Could that change in the coming years? Sure, and we think Stanford’s new president (Jonathan Levin) and Cal’s chancellor (Richard Lyons) should start putting pressure on Fox immediately in case the ACC collapses.
In that situation, Bay Area schools would have a reasonable chance (maybe 30 percent, maybe 40 percent) of making the Big Ten.
With the “intentional advancement” of the NFL, wouldn’t it be better in the long run to preserve the College Football Playoff, especially since the college is the feeder system? — @crashlit
The Hotline has addressed the NFL’s threat to college football on two occasions recently, and we have no plans to stop.
In our opinion, the NFL’s “intentional advance” (a phrase coined by retired Fox Sports president Bob Thompson) represents an existential threat to the college football postseason.
Which means he’s an existential threat to college football itself.
With the agreement between the House and the NCAA, is it safe to assume that most athletic departments must eliminate some non-revenue generating sports to get closer to a balanced budget? — @TerryTerry79
If we assume that Judge Claudia Wilken approves the terms of the House agreement that have been made public, specifically, the $20 million (approximately) revenue sharing agreement with the athletes, then it is difficult to see all FBS schools maintaining the current scope of their athletic departments. .
Of course, the FBS includes both the state of Florida and Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma and Ohio.
Schools in power conferences could dodge the executioner of Olympic sports. We are not entirely convinced, but it is possible that everything will remain intact.
(The blowback that comes with eliminating teams could be fierce, depending on the school and sport.)
Group of Five athletic departments are in a more precarious position, but they will also face less pressure to meet the maximum revenue sharing amount.
The big unknown, of course, is Title IX. And that question must be decided by the courts.
Despite multiple leadership changes in multiple areas, the Pac-12 continued to have very serious management and performance problems. Do you think the Pac-12 was “irreparable” and should be destroyed? — @Jalex0077
I’m not sure “had to be destroyed” is the right phrase, even if you assumed the conference was doomed as soon as USC and UCLA announced their departure on June 30, 2022.
The Hotline believes it could have been saved, but only with the right leadership.
Former Commissioner George Kliavkoff was ill-equipped for the task, especially with a group of presidents that exuded ignorance and arrogance in equal measure and with two schools (Oregon and Washington) threatening to flee to the Big Ten.
As we noted last fall, the Pac-12’s demise unfolded over many years and required numerous strategic mistakes. Every school except Washington State and Oregon State has fingerprints on the gun.
Will any West Coast media members travel with the realigned teams to games on the East Coast? Or is on-site coverage another loss? – @KevinGH158627
We cannot speak for other reporters or media outlets. but my strong suspicion is that some outlets will make all the trips, most will make some trips, and some will rarely make any trips.
How’s that for a concrete answer?
Basically, it depends on the magnitude of the confrontation and the quality of the opponent.
(We’re equally curious how many West Coast fans travel to Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC territory for matchups against mid- and lower-tier conference opponents.)
The Hotline will continue our current focus, which means site-specific coverage of events both on and off the field (i.e., conventions and meetings) that have the broadest appeal and deepest meaning.
With football media days coming up in July, what do you think the ‘Pac 2’ schools will do? Could the Mountain West invite them as special guests? – @cubsfan7331
I can answer that question definitively, because the Pac-12 revealed their plans this morning.
Instead of a traditional summer media event, the conference will host what it has called “After Hours with the Beavs and Cougs, presented by the Pac-12.”
The event is scheduled for Las Vegas on the evening of July 10 and coincides with the Big 12 and Mountain West media events in Sin City that week.
The Big 12 version is July 9-10, while the Mountain West is scheduled for July 10-11.
Coaches (and players) from Washington State and Oregon will meet with assembled media members and Pac-12 Commissioner Teresa Gould at the Bellagio on the evening of the 10th.
The plan seems appropriate to us both in terms of schedule and scope.
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