Karl-Anthony Towns always remembers the faith Flip Saunders placed in him, and in turn, the promise he made to Flip Saunders back in 2015: that the Minnesota Timberwolves would rise again, thrive again, and one day dominate again.
“I told Flip from the beginning,” Towns recalled, “I wanted to be here.”
Saunders, then the Wolves president and head coach, made Towns the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 Draft. And Towns accepted everything that came with it: all the praise, all the expectations, all the burdens. “No. 1,” Towns told The Ringer last week, “they’re supposed to take their franchises to new heights.”
“No. The No. 1 picks are supposed to take their franchises to new heights.” —Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns said this at the beginning of the Western Conference finals between Minnesota and the Dallas Mavericks. The Wolves were four wins away from their first trip to the NBA Finals. Towns was closer than ever to fulfilling his promise. A championship seemed within reach for him.
Since then, that vision has become a faint flicker. The Wolves lost the first three games of the series, a deficit no NBA team has ever overcome. Although Minnesota rallied to win Game 4 on Tuesday, the odds of winning the series remain grim. That long-ago promise will almost certainly remain unfulfilled.
Towns has been with the Timberwolves for nine seasons, an All-Star for four of them and consistently one of the NBA’s top scorers. He has been paired with two other no. 1 picks: Andrew Wiggins (2014) for four-plus seasons and Anthony Edwards (2020) for the last four. However, before this year, Towns had not won a single playoff series. And now, even this exciting trip to the conference finals, marked by the Wolves’ shocking loss to the defending champion Denver Nuggets, somehow feels like a failure.
That’s the thing about being the first pick in the NBA draft: the label and the enormous expectations never fade. “I guess it’s an honor,” Towns said last week. “You know it comes with pressure.”
It will surely be some consolation, but Towns has a lot of company (and I mean, a lot of company) as a former no. 1 that he failed to get his team to the top of the mountain. If championships are the bar, there have been far more failures than successes over the past three decades. By the strictest definition, the only two do not. 1 picks since 1993 who have led their teams to the title are Tim Duncan and LeBron James.
If you loosen the parameters a bit, you could include Kyrie Irving, who won a title as LeBron’s co-star in 2016; Anthony Davis, who raised a banner with LeBron in 2020; and Wiggins, who helped Stephen Curry win it all in 2022. Some other former no. All 1 earned rings as role players: Glenn Robinson (with Duncan in 2005), Andrew Bogut (with Curry in 2015) and Dwight Howard (with LeBron in 2020). But that’s all. End of list.
If we talk about no. 1 choose who were the clear no. 1 option on a starting team, it’s really just Duncan and LeBron in the last 28 drafts. This doesn’t mean everyone else doesn’t. 1 was a bust, although many receive that label, it’s just that the vast majority never match the enthusiasm that greets them on draft night. Most don’t even make it to the final. Or win MVP. Or even become consistent NBA players.
Instead, the championship glory of recent years has been snatched away by a second-round pick (Nikola Jokic in 2023), or the 15th pick (Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 and Kawhi Leonard in 2019), or the seventh pick (Stephen Curry in 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022). The 2024 Finals will feature a Boston Celtics team starring two no. 3 (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) and, most likely, a Mavericks team led by another no. 3 (Luka Doncic), with Irving as a secondary star.
Which begs the question: Is the first choice really as good as it seems? Is it worth all the fuss? Obsessive speculation? The tank? Sure, from time to time there may be a Kyrie (2011), an AD (2012) or a Victor Wembanyama (2023). But if you’re more likely to get an Andrea Bargnani (2006) than a Blake Griffin (2009) most years, what’s the point?
“I think actually the no. 1 in the NBA primarily has a perception problem,” said Daryl Morey, president of the Philadelphia 76ers, “because there have been a lot of iconic players drafted no. 1. And the fanfare surrounding them is so great when they enter the league that people remember it.”
In our collective consciousness, that mystique was established long ago, by legends like Oscar Robertson (#1 in 1960), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1969), and the late Bill Walton (1974). There have always been disappointments, of course (Kent Benson in 1977, Pervis Ellison in 1989), but for a while, the men at the top of the draft board consistently shined a little brighter.
In the 14-year span between 1979 and 1993, we saw four no. 1 who would win multiple titles as the centerpiece of their team: Magic Johnson (1979), Hakeem Olajuwon (1984), David Robinson (1987) and Shaquille O’Neal (1992). Several others would become Hall of Fame members, including James Worthy (1982), Patrick Ewing (1985), and Chris Webber (1993).
But the last 25 years have been filled with disappointments, from Kwame Brown (2001) to Greg Oden (2007), Anthony Bennett (2013) and Markelle Fultz (2017). Some don’t. All 1s found sustained stardom (Griffin, Derrick Rose (2008), John Wall (2010)), but hit a ceiling or were weakened by injuries. Even Deandre Ayton (2018), who made the 2021 Finals as the Phoenix Suns‘ third-best player, now looks like another cautionary tale.
It’s not just about championships, which usually require a co-star (or two), a solid supporting cast, and a little luck. But even in terms of individual praise, our no. The 1’s fall short.
“I think actually the no. 1 in the NBA mainly has a perception problem, because there have been so many iconic players drafted than not. 1. And the fanfare surrounding them is so great when they enter the league that people remember it.” —Daryl Morey
Of the 27 players chosen first between 1994 and 2020, only four have won the MVP (Allen Iverson, Duncan, James and Rose). Only nine of those players made All-NBA at least twice. Eleven reached at least one final, but seven of them did so while linked to a better player. Of course, that group includes young stars like Zion Williamson (2019) and Edwards (2020), who have plenty of time left to make their mark.
Still, draft experts acknowledge that, despite all the modern advances in analytics, scouting and video, the exercise remains as complicated as ever. “We know the draft is always a game of chance,” said one veteran Eastern Conference scout. “Is it clear? Never.”
For decades, recruits came mostly through the NCAA, after several years in college, and arrived in their early 20s. Then came the pro-prep era (1995-2005), followed by the so-called one-and-done era and the modern influx of international prospects, all of which infused the draft with more youth, uncertainty and risk. .
“The recruiting pool has doubled and tripled,” said another veteran scout. “In the ’80s and ’90s, how many freshmen entered the draft? So you have to make decisions through a different lens (now). How will Giannis transfer from a third division Greek team to the NBA? And how will this 18-year-old develop into what we hope he will be in a few years? “Those parts of the equation just weren’t a factor (in earlier times).”
There’s a reason “re-drafts” have become a favorite staple of every NBA website and podcast over the past 20 years: because most drafts, in retrospect, are full of mistakes. , blunders, conjectures and overreach. In retrospect, very few don’t. The 1’s are still the no. 1.
Even now, the draft is “definitely more art than science,” said Morey, who generally prides himself on the science part.
Six years ago, at MIT’s Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Morey posited that the NBA, collectively, had actually gotten worse in the draft. Although he hasn’t reviewed the data recently, Morey said that’s likely still the case.
“I know we’ve reached more consensus (on the draft order), so now we’re all collectively stupid,” he said with a laugh. “I know the top 20 of mock drafts has been pretty stable. And then after 20, it explodes into a lot of opinions.”
And yet, Morey said, all the volatility is “very good for the league,” and perhaps one of the reasons for this modern era of parity. If teams can land stars like Tyrese Haliburton at the no. 12, or Devin Booker at no. 13, or Jalen Brunson at no. 33, or (as Morey did) Tyrese Maxey in no. 21, gives teams across the spectrum the opportunity to improve. And it creates an even bigger argument (along with the league’s revamped lottery odds) against failure.
“Between the draft reform and the fact that it’s hard to predict, it allows you to have a competitive team and have a reasonable chance of taking a very, very good player,” Morey said.
Four weeks from now, the Atlanta Hawks are scheduled to get the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, from a class that has been derided as the worst since 2013, when Cleveland took Bennett with the No. 1 pick. As we now know, there was a future superstar lurking in 2013 (Antetokounmpo), along with a future defensive ace (Rudy Gobert, picked 27th overall). The same will undoubtedly be true for this draft class, scouts said. We just won’t know who the stars will be for a few years.
“If there was ever a year where you’d say, I’m fine with the fourth or fifth pick instead of one, this would be it,” the second-ever longtime scout said.
Meanwhile, the Wolves and their two no. The 1’s will attempt to defy the odds (and recent history) and revive their championship hopes. More performances like Tuesday’s will be needed, when Towns scored 25 points on 9-of-13 shooting, and Edwards had a near triple-double (29 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists), statistics worthy of a pair of proud first-round picks. position. .
“I came in with an expectation,” Towns said last week, “and every day I try to not only meet that expectation, but exceed it.”
A championship would validate it all and put Towns and Edwards on what has become a surprisingly exclusive roster. But if they never win it all, it won’t necessarily be a failure: just the typical result of the non-modern. 1 choice.
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