The Texas Longhorns made the first four-team College Football Playoff last season. It was a dramatic turnaround after a decade of mediocrity.
The playoff berth marked what could be the beginning of a successful head coaching tenure for Steve Sarkisian. In one season, Sarkisian changed the course of his career and the trajectory of the once-dominant Texas football program. In an expanded 12-team playoff, the Longhorns could do it again.
Several things must go right for a team to reach the college football postseason tournament. Reasonable health, fortunate rebounds and a favorable schedule lend themselves to a postseason appearance. However, it takes a playoff-caliber roster for a team to realize its lofty aspirations.
Texas had all of the above traits in 2023: They stayed healthy, won close games, won winnable games and made the most of their best players in big moments. Can they do it again?
Let’s look at 10 reasons why the Longhorns will make the College Football Playoffs this season.
Favorable SEC Schedule
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There is no easy timeline for the SEC. The Longhorns got the closest thing to one in 2024. Here are some features of Texas’ 2024 roster.
offensive line
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Texas’ offensive line situation is much better than many of the top teams from a season ago. Four of the five starters return, including fourth-year starting center Jake Majors and third-year starters Kelvin Banks Jr. and Hayden Conner. Multi-game starter Cole Hutson is also back with several other skilled linemen vying for a starting job. Few, if any, have it better on the offensive line than Texas when it comes to quality and starting depth. The Longhorns could have the top line in the country.
Third-year starting quarterback
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It remains surprising that many give Quinn Ewers little to no credit for his 349-yard performance on the road against Alabama, his 31-of-37 efficiency against Oklahoma or his record-breaking performance in the Big 12 championship a season ago. Ewers has plenty of room to grow as a passer and defensive processor. Still, he was good enough to win big games and win consistently last season. He’s good enough to do it again.
Emergency backup
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In case you missed it, backup quarterback Arch Manning took a shot in the Orange-White game. The highlight pitches weren’t what impressed. What was impressive was the fluid movement from progression to progression, pocket presence, footwork and consistent accuracy. Arch isn’t the best quarterback option this season, but there is reason to believe he could be better than Ewers when he gets a chance next season. If Ewers were to get hurt and the opportunity came early, Manning seems ready to step in and win. That’s a luxury many playoff contenders don’t have.
Wide Receiver Corps
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If you’re expecting Texas’ wide receiver room led by Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, Silas Bolden, Johntay Cook and DeAndre Moore to not produce, you’ll be disappointed. Add in five-star Ryan Wingo, who caught multiple touchdowns in the Orange-White game, and this talent-laden group has enough to take little to no dip from last season. Bond, Golden and Bolden are proven enough players to expect the unit to be productive. To suggest otherwise is wishful thinking.
The calendar brings more urgency
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Texas’ past struggles in the Big 12 were not helped by a lack of compelling matchups. It’s much easier to get excited about facing Florida, Georgia and old rivals Texas A&M and Arkansas than it is to play Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor and TCU. Underestimating those opponents could have contributed in some ways to Texas’ problems in the league since 2009. Texas will have moments where it will be tempting to exhale against teams like Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but for the most part the schedule should do the trick. Attention to detail is easier to achieve.
Running over the top edge
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Texas’ top four pass rushers, Trey Moore, Ethan Burke, Barryn Sorrell and Anthony Hill Jr., had 28.5 sacks last season. Moore’s 14 sacks contribute heavily to that total, but those writing off his 2023 UTSA total might consider turning on the tape. Moore’s 14 sacks were three more than Khalil Mack had in any of his four seasons at a smaller school in Buffalo. Mack’s Group of Five production is translating quite well to the NFL. This pass rush for Texas should be strong.
The race for the edges balances the internal losses
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Texas’ losses at defensive tackle are significant, but they addressed playmaking elsewhere. The Longhorns added senior transfer Trey Moore and five-star freshman Colin Simmons to a productive core on the edge. Texas should have more sacks and pressures than last season. So when would defensive tackle be a problem?
Defensive tackle matters on the edges: If a team is undersized and turns the ball over, defensive tackle is a liability. If a player is a dominant force like T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, the defensive tackle has an incredible impact. The most competent defensive lines simply do their job and stay in their lane. Teams with solid size can do well in run defense.
Texas is not too small at defensive tackle. Most, if not all, of their contributing tackles will weigh over 300 pounds, with Sydir Mitchell last checking in at over 370 pounds. They added three 300+ pound players in the portal. I don’t anticipate scheduled opponents outside of Michigan and Georgia being able to put pressure on them.
Improved racing game
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Texas’ offensive line is primed to shift from blocking opponents to moving them by run blocking. The Longhorns’ entire starting line will be made up of players entering their third year or more on campus. The added maturity, improved technique and gained strength should allow the line to more forcefully clear defenders from the running lanes. We saw projected starters Kelvin Banks, DJ Campbell and Cam Williams punish their opponents last season, but those highlight plays could be more frequent in 2024.
they did it last year
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The current coaching staff led the Longhorns to the playoffs last year. We have already seen it happen. The schedule does increase in difficulty, but the margin of error also increases in a 12-team playoff. Sarkisian’s process works. No one else who made the playoffs last season returns all of their head coaches, coordinators, special teams coaches and quarterbacks from last season. Certainly, not all of those teams return 83% of their offensive line snaps from a year ago like Sarkisian’s team does. Texas to the playoffs is reasonable. The season will indicate whether the Longhorns can perform consistently in consecutive seasons.
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