Jalen Brunson wanted to re-sign with the Dallas Mavericks in 2021. He was eligible for a four-year extension worth roughly $56 million, and as low as that figure seemed at the time, Brunson was risk-averse. “I want to be safe,” Brunson said of his thought process at the time in All the Smoke. “I’m not trying to bet right now. This is not something you would really play with if it exists.” The Mavericks refused to offer Brunson such an extension. He now he’s a New York Knick.
Three years later, Brunson suffers a similar situation, but in reverse. This time, his team is incredibly eager to hire him again. Brunson has become one of the best offensive players in the NBA and the face of the Knicks. In all likelihood, he will remain in New York for the foreseeable future. It’s just a question of what kind of contract will get him there, and this time, it’s not clear that an extension is his best option.
NBA rules allow players like Brunson to sign a contract extension that starts at 40% above his previous salary and includes 8% raises annually. The problem for Brunson is that his current $107 million contract not only pays him less than he’s worth now, but it actually drops in terms of annual salary. Brunson will make less next season than he did this season, and that also lowers the initial threshold for a potential veteran extension. If Brunson extends this offseason, the most new money he could add to his deal would be approximately $156 million over four years. Under this deal, Brunson would decline his player option for 2025-26, and his extension would take effect at that time. Here’s what that deal would look like:
Year | Salary |
2025-26 | $34,944,001 |
2026-27 | $37,739,521 |
2027-28 | $40,535,041 |
2028-29 | $43,330,561 |
Total | $156,549,124 |
That’s a lot of money. It’s not even close to what Brunson is actually worth. There are already 34 players in line to earn more than Brunson would make under this deal during the 2025-26 season, including Deandre Ayton, Michael Porter Jr. and Bradley Beal. That number will increase as the 2024 and 2025 free agents sign their own deals. Brunson was a second-team All-NBA player this season, suggesting he was one of this year’s 10 brightest stars. If he signs this extension, he won’t end up as one of the 50 highest-paid players in the league. He may not even start it as one of them.
So what is Brunson’s alternative? If he waits a year, he can use his 2025-26 player option to become a free agent next offseason. He presumably wouldn’t use this flexibility to leave the Knicks, but simply to do what he’s worth. Full Bird free agents, such as Brunson, are not limited in how much their starting teams can pay them. They can earn anything up to the maximum, a figure the Knicks would surely be happy to pay Brunson. We don’t know exactly what that number will be, but we can estimate it. As a seven-year veteran, Brunson would be eligible to make 30% of the salary cap. The projected salary cap for next year is $141 million. The widespread assumption is that the cap will increase 10% annually thereafter due to the new media rights contract. That would put the projected cap for 2025-26 at $155.1 million. If Brunson signed for his max under those conditions, this is what his contract would look like:
Year | Salary |
2025-26 | $46,530,000 |
2026-27 | $50,252,400 |
2027-28 | $53,974,800 |
2028-29 | $57,697,200 |
2029-30 | $61,419,600 |
Total | $269,874,000 |
A $270 million deal sounds closer to Brunson’s fair market value, doesn’t it? All Brunson would have to do to get it is wait one more year. It may seem obvious, but it is not. Steve Popper reported that “all indications” suggest Brunson is willing to take the $156 million now rather than wait a year for $270 million. So why would I do that? There are a few reasons.
Safety is the obvious one. As Brunson said of a possible extension in Dallas three years ago: “This is not something you really play with if it’s available.” Brunson has the opportunity to secure generational wealth for his family by signing a contract that is available to him at this time. Anything could happen if you wait a year. Sure, the Knicks would probably pay him anyway even if he got hurt next season, but you never know for sure. This is especially true for small guards.
Remember, a very similar situation happened to Isaiah Thomas in Boston. In 2016, he was the face of the Celtics. He joked that the team “better bring the Brinks truck” to pay him. At that time, he was two years away from signing a new contract. He followed up that quote by finishing fifth in 2016-17 MVP voting… but he also injured his hip in the playoffs and was then traded to Cleveland for Kyrie Irving in the summer of 2017. When he hit free agency in 2018, The only contract he could find was for the minimum salary with the Denver Nuggets.
Even if smaller guards face the brunt of this risk, it’s a threat to anyone, and some players are simply more risk-averse than others. In that same 2021 offseason in which Brunson was trying to get an extension from the Mavericks, Julius Randle was in the position Brunson now occupies with the Knicks. He was coming off a great season and was deciding between a seemingly below-market extension at the moment or free agency a year later. He chose the extension, a decision he’s probably grateful for given how hard he and the team struggled during the following 2021-22 campaign.
Security would be the main force behind an extension, but there is also an advantage to consider here. If Brunson is extended, assuming he picks up a player option in the final season of his contract, he could hit free agency again as early as the summer of 2028. At that point, he would only be entering his age-32 season, and theoretically prepared for another major contract. If he waits until free agency in 2025, he would be delaying his next free agency until the summer of 2029. Therefore, he would be a year older at that point. Maybe he is worth a lot of money at 33 years old. Maybe not. But in all likelihood, he is more valuable at 32, so he would be setting himself up to make some of this money in the end.
And then, of course, there are the benefits to the Knicks as a team. While New York is the NBA’s largest market and owner James Dolan has shown a willingness to pay the luxury tax in the past, the Knicks are about to become prohibitively expensive. Assuming the Knicks keep Bojan Bogdanovic’s non-guaranteed contract, they already have approximately $135 million in salary committed for next season. That number will increase significantly if they re-sign OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. The best-case scenario for New York, if they reverse it, would likely be to pay the luxury tax but fall short of the first projected apron of $179 million. Doing so would allow them additional flexibility in trades and signings, but they would most likely be somewhere between that figure and the $189 million second apron, which comes with all sorts of restrictions when it comes to player additions.
Brunson’s salary for next season is already set, but that shows how expensive this roster is. He’ll only get more expensive if the Knicks add another superstar, and because of all the new restrictions the second apron will introduce this season, every dollar Brunson saves the Knicks is worth several more when it comes to building a winning roster. The longer the Knicks can fend off the second apron, the better. Having Brunson on a salary that is well below his true value would be a huge help to the Knicks in keeping this season’s contending roster together and potentially improving it.
Brunson is already perhaps the most beloved Knick since Patrick Ewing. Even if he did it primarily for long-term financial security, accepting a below-market-value contract to remain in New York and help the Knicks continue to contend for a championship would cement him as perhaps the city’s most beloved modern public figure. . athletic or not. That has personal value and probably financial value as well. Brunson is on his way to becoming a New York icon. If he really left money on the table to stay there, he could ensure his sanctity throughout the city. Not a bad result for a player who, just three years ago, couldn’t get the Mavericks to extend him an offer for what is now basically mid-level money.
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