After starting the week against the Cubs, the Brewers will end Chicago Week with the White Sox coming to town. The White Sox have had a difficult season. Their 15-42 record is the worst in the majors and they are currently on an eight-game losing streak. A series like this may seem like an easy sweep, but if the Brewers aren’t careful, it could end up being a trap series. That’s especially true with a trip to the league-leading Phillies next week.
The White Sox offense has been near the bottom of the league all season. Their 73 wRC+ is last in the MLB and is the only offense with a negative fWAR. They have scored the fewest runs in the league and rank last in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They have also suffered some injury losses. Yoan Moncada is on the 60-day injured list, Eloy Jiménez is on the 10-day injured list and Luis Robert Jr. will return from injury shortly after his current rehab assignment. Tommy Pham has been one of the few bright spots in the lineup, posting a .294/.344/.429 batting line with a wRC+ of 121. Gavin Sheets has also helped provide some stability with a . 241/.354/.414. Prospect Corey Julks was recently acquired from the Astros and is 10 for 33 with six walks, three doubles and a home run in his first 11 games with the White Sox.
The Brewers also have a significant advantage in the bullpen. They have better ERA (3.61 vs. 4.10) and FIP (3.90 vs. 4.70). Michael Kopech has been the White Sox closer with 13 finished games and five saves so far this season. He also has a 4.01 ERA and 5.16 FIP in 24.2 innings. Also in the bullpen mix are Tanner Banks (4.68 ERA, 3.21 FIP), Jordan Leasure (2.66 ERA, 4.31 FIP), Tim Hill (4.05 ERA, 3.48 FIP) and Jared Shuster (2.70 ERA, 3.73 FIP).
The starting rotation is the only place the White Sox are close to the Brewers. Although the White Sox have a higher ERA (4.04 vs. 5.19) and FIP (4.38 vs. 4.72), the White Sox have a higher fWAR (2.7 vs. 2.5) as well as a better strikeout rate (8.47 K/9 vs. .7.97K/9). Additionally, the Brewers will see the White Sox among the top two starters in this series. The Brewers will counterattack with their ace and a rising rookie to match the White Sox.
Probable pitchers
Friday, May 31 at 7:10 pm: Erick Fedde (2.80 ERA, 3.88 FIP) vs. Tobias Myers (4.43 ERA, 5.77 FIP)
Erick Fedde is the first half of the White Sox starting duo. He has allowed no runs in four of his starts and two or fewer runs in eight of 11 starts. However, he has also made three starts, in which he has allowed five runs. He has a 58:18 K/BB ratio this season, with a season-high 11 strikeouts on April 23. In his last start against the Orioles, he did not allow a run in 6 1⁄3 innings. He struck out six and allowed three hits and three walks.
Tobias Myers has returned to the majors after Joe Ross’ injury. He has made one relief appearance and one start since his return on May 21. In his start on May 26 against the Red Sox, he had a good day. He allowed just one run in 4 1⁄3 innings, but the Brewers’ offense couldn’t back him up in a 2-1 loss.
Saturday, June 1 at 3:10 pm: Garrett Crochet (3.88 ERA, 3.05 FIP) vs. Robert Gasser (1.96 ERA, 2.52 FIP)
The other end of the White Sox starting duo is Garrett Crochet. Although the effectiveness is greater, Crochet has been better than Fedde in some aspects. He has a 0.93 ERA and 1.92 FIP in the month of May and is a strong strikeout pitcher with 85 strikeouts compared to just 14 walks. He has also recorded three double-digit strikeout days this season. His last start was one of those, as he struck out 11 against the Orioles with just one walk and three hits. Unfortunately, he also gave up a two-run home run and the White Sox offense was unable to provide him with any run support. The White Sox offense averages 2.57 runs scored on starting days.
It will be difficult for the White Sox to overcome that scoring deficit against Robert Gasser. He has allowed one or fewer runs in three of four starts. One of those outings was his last time against the Cubs. He allowed just three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts. The Brewers’ offense has also been good to him, averaging nine runs in his starts. If Gasser keeps this up, he will be a permanent starter in the rotation this season.
Sunday, June 2 at 1:10 pm: Nick Nastrini (9.92 ERA, 7.85 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.61 ERA, 3.37 FIP)
On the other side of the rotation, Nick Nastrini is in his rookie season with the White Sox. He was acquired in a trade with the Dodgers last season and has been called up a couple of times this season. It’s been a rough start for him in the majors; He has allowed at least two runs in every start, including starts with five and eight earned runs allowed. His last outing on Monday was a little better. He allowed three runs in five innings against the Blue Jays.
He will face a mismatch as Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers. Peralta has had a rough May, with the Brewers only winning one of his starts. Nor has it been for lack of effort from Peralta. He allowed just one run in seven innings against the Marlins on May 22, but the Brewers lost 1-0. He then got off to another strong start with just one run allowed against the Cubs on Tuesday, but the Brewers trailed 1-0 heading into the ninth inning and ended up losing 6-3 in extra innings. Hopefully, Peralta’s luck will change when the calendar turns to June.
Prediction
On paper, this is a pretty big mismatch between the teams. The White Sox are near the bottom of the league in offense and pitching. The Brewers’ offense is still near the top of the league. Meanwhile, while the starting pitchers may be closer, the Brewers also have a big advantage in the bullpen. The series is very likely to be won here, as is a sweep. However, when a team has lost 12 of 13 and eight in a row, at some point it is going to break a good streak. Let’s hope that doesn’t come here.
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