Until Monday night, an unusual possibility was at stake in the NHL Playoffs: If the Vancouver Canucks had defeated the Edmonton Oilers, the conference championship series would have featured four first-place teams for the first time. Of course, it didn’t happen. The Oilers won Game 7 of their series against the Canucks, sending them to Dallas to play the Stars in the Western Conference finals. In the East, it’s the Atlantic Division champions, the Florida Panthers, against the Metropolitan Division winners, the New York Rangers, playing for the Eastern Conference title.
Still, there were several developments to note as the NHL playoffs move into their second month and the physical grind begins to take its toll. The Oilers are the first team in NHL history to have three players with 20 or more points (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard) in the first two rounds. Whoever ultimately wins this year’s Stanley Cup will end a long championship drought. The Stars (1999), Rangers (1994) and Oilers (1990) have not won titles since the 1990s, while the Panthers have never won, although they were runners-up a year ago.
When Edmonton eliminated Vancouver as the road team the other night, it was the 16th win by a road team in the second round, where home ice barely mattered. Do you do it now?
The Oilers enter as underdogs against a Dallas team that has had a tough road to the finals: first eliminating the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights in the first round and the Colorado Avalanche in the second round.
The East matchup is even more intriguing. The battle of the Russian goalkeepers, Igor Shesterkin against Sergei Bobrovsky. The evil of Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk and others against the skill of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. The Rangers’ best forward in these playoffs might be Vincent Trocheck, who spent the first seven seasons of his NHL career with the Panthers. Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola played for the Rangers a year ago as playoff rentals. Now they are with Florida. And a trio of current Rangers (Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler and Jack Roslovic) played for Panthers coach Paul Maurice in Winnipeg. So there’s a lot of familiarity there.
We’ve assembled our playoff prediction panel (composed of an anonymous executive, a coach and a scout) to evaluate the Final Four, granting anonymity in exchange for candor. What will change the course of these series? Let’s ask our panel.
New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers
“You can throw out all the clichés and all the analysis when trying to figure out the winner,” said our executive, who wanted to remind us that he is 10-2 so far in the playoffs. “The only thing that is certain is that one great team will win this series and another great team will lose it. Neither team has a major flaw.
“I predict the key to the series will be who comes out on top between Florida’s Vladimir Tarasenko and New York’s Adam Fox. Both have been good but not as effective as they could be. Whoever wins that battle will help his team win the series. “I think it will be Adam Fox, so I think it will be the Rangers.”
But our other panelists took the opposite route and chose Florida.
“Florida is being tested,” our scout said. “Many times teams reach the final one year and it is difficult to return the next. It seems like they learned from last year and are hungry to come back. I said it from the beginning, I think they are made for the playoffs and that is the slight advantage I am going to give them. I mean, it’s a coin toss, but that’s my reasoning: that they’ve been through it recently; “They know what it takes and they are eager to go one step further than they were a year ago.”
Meanwhile, our coach believes the X-factor in the series could be the Panthers’ Bennett. In Calgary, before he broke out, Bennett had a nickname, Playoff Sam, because he tended to improve his play in the postseason. He has simply become more impactful as the years go by.
“There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t accept Sam Bennett on their team right now,” the coach said. “He is tough, he can go with the greats. He hits like a freight train and goes to the net. He is strong and plays behind Barkov. So he’s a pretty good one-two punch. That will be the interesting matchup in the middle against the Rangers because they have Zibanejad and Trocheck. It’s a wash, from one to four, in lines. The same with the D, the same with the goal. There is the Trouba factor: he changes the rules of the game in a different way. But there is something about the fact that Florida was there last year that could take them over the top.”
Executive: Ranger in 7
Explore: Panthers in 6
Coach: Panthers in 7
Consensus: The panthers advance
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
Our scout and coach began by disagreeing on what a factor fatigue could play in this series, given that Dallas has been resting and recovering, while Edmonton was on the edge.
Our coach thinks it’s real.
“29 (Leon Draisaitl) and 97 (Connor McDavid) in the middle of the series were playing 30 minutes and it showed in Game 5. This is the moment in the playoffs when the rest starts to play in your favor because Vancouver It took them to seven and I don’t think many people predicted that. And those Vancouver D greats leaned on their best players, something LA couldn’t do. And I think that will show in this series. That cliché that rest is a weapon is valid now.”
But our scout believes there’s enough time between now and puck drop on Thursday for the Oilers to reset.
“They have two days off,” the scout said. “If they didn’t have two days off, maybe that’s a problem. But I’m going back to Dallas. “They played seven games with Vegas and Colorado had a lot of rest and that didn’t affect the result.”
There was also a difference of opinion on what factor Edmonton’s goaltending struggles might have on the series. Our coach and executive thought that tipped the scales heavily in favor of Dallas.
“Say Edmonton’s superstars find a way to match Dallas’ depth, both offensively and defensively, the difference between Jake Oettinger and Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard in goal is simply too much for Edmonton to overcome,” our exec said.
But our scout disagreed and believes Skinner got his struggles out of his system and it will only go on and up from here. Edmonton fans can only hope he’s right.
“I think Stuart has had his crisis, his bad week,” our scout said. “He’s been solid all year and looked solid at the end. I think he’ll be fine. It’s a point that could definitely worry you, but it seems like he got it out of his system.”
Although Edmonton’s support team up front has had a mediocre tiebreaker so far, our coach believes the difference will ultimately be Dallas’ defensive corps and, of course, the big advantage in goal.
“If you watch the game (Monday) night, I know it happens to a lot of teams, but Edmonton in particular, every time they have to finish it, they struggle, and you can get to that goalie,” the coach said. . “Oettinger has gotten better and better in these playoffs. Dallas is a little deeper than Edmonton and Dallas can play however they want.
“Edmonton relies a lot on its power play. That would be the only thing leaning in Edmonton’s favor. Vancouver did an incredible job of shutting down Edmonton’s power plays and a big factor was Elias Lindholm winning draws on his side. I know it seems like such a small detail, but when Edmonton started with the puck in Vancouver’s zone, they were putting four and five shots on net on a power play. When they had to go back, escape and restart, it was a different animal. They have Pav (Joe Pavelski) as a matchup player on the right side, but they don’t want anyone like Lindholm to win draws in the defensive zone. That could perhaps harm them.”
Executive: Stars out of 5
Explore: Grease nipples in 6
Coach: Stars in 6
Consensus: The stars move forward
(Photo by Matthew Tkachuk and Barclay Goodrow: Bruce Bennett//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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