Obviously, there are a lot of big things happening off the field in college athletics, but with spring football in the rearview mirror and many transfers set to report to their new programs in the coming weeks, now is a good time to take a look at the next season. Betting houses have published their teams’ win totals, an ideal barometer to know the expectations of each program. Here are the five most tempting picks I see to review and the ones that will end up at the bottom.
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Prediction of weeks 1 to 3 of the television calendar of the CFB 2024 season
The best bets to review
Georgia – 10.5 wins: This is a program that has gone 24-0 in the SEC regular season the last three years and is 42-2. Alabama broke the Dawgs’ 29-game winning streak in the SEC title game last year, but they’re still loaded and now Nick Saban is working in television. Georgia returns 16 starters and has arguably the best quarterback in the country in Carson Beck, a bright and accurate trigger man with some new talent around him in wide receiver Colbie Young and running back Trevor Etienne to go along with an experienced offensive line. Nazir Stackhouse and Mykel Williams headline a talented defensive front, and safety Malaki Starks anchors the secondary. The calendar is not easy. The Bulldogs open with Clemson in Atlanta and have trips to Tuscaloosa, Austin and Oxford, but the hunch is that Kirby Smart will have this team ready for 2024, and I don’t see Georgia losing more than once this fall.
Florida State – 9.5 wins: The Seminoles topped the ACC (and LSU) to finish 13-0 before being snubbed by the College Football Playoff selection committee last December. Only eight starters are back, but word in Tallahassee is that they’ve reloaded and should be nasty again on defense. Cornerback Azareye’h Thomas, a 6-foot-1 Hawk, had a fantastic spring and should lead one of the best secondaries in college football. Patrick Payton has continued to develop into an excellent defensive end, and Marvin Jones Jr. is expected to have a monster year on the other end. Darrell Jackson will give the Noles a big presence in the middle of their defense. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei improved as a passer and processor at Oregon State and should be a dual threat with his ability to break through tackles in the run game. Bama transfer Malik Benson and Indiana transfer Jaylin Lucas add playmaking skills. They have Clemson at home and have trips to Miami and Notre Dame, but assuming they don’t lose all three (there’s a better chance they win at least two of those three) they’ll be in great shape to reach double digits. .
Colorado – 5.5 wins: Deion Sanders took over a one-win team last year and led it to 4-8. I’m hoping for another big jump or at least bowl eligibility. The Buffaloes have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Shedeur Sanders, a tough and accurate quarterback, and the team has good talent, led by Travis Hunter. The Buffs will miss Dylan Edwards, but Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden, a speedster who ran for 553 yards and five touchdowns last year, should be a good fit. Better yet, CU has improved its O-line, which was terrible last year. The Buffaloes have also made big strides in revamping their defensive front, led by Pitt transfer Dayon Hayes (10.5 TFL in 2023). CU has a tough first game against FCS power North Dakota State, then has to go to Nebraska, but with the younger Sanders leading the offense, this group should improve enough to achieve at least six wins.
Iowa State – 7.5 wins: The Cyclones had a challenging setup for 2023 as ISU and rival Iowa faced a gambling investigation. Matt Campbell’s program ended up being one of the youngest teams in Power 5 football, with freshmen playing prominent roles. After opening 1-2, which included a 10-7 loss at Ohio, the Cyclones bounced back and finished 7-6 and 6-3 in Big 12 play. Almost all of the key pieces are back and have a lot more seasoning . Rocco Becht, now a sophomore, is a star in the making. He threw 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in 2023. He has a fantastic group of WRs led by Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Abu Sama III, a dynamic RB, ran wild against K-State for nearly 300 yards as a true freshman. The Cyclones also have five offensive linemen, each with starting experience. Middle linebacker Jack Sadowsky and safety Beau Freyler give ISU toughness and craftsmanship in the middle of the defense. The tough games: at Iowa, at WVU, at Kansas, at Utah and then at K-State in the season finale. Don’t be surprised if Campbell has a Top 25 team this year. These guys could be good enough to sneak into the CFP if Becht plays as well as some people within the program believe he can.
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Memphis – 8.5 wins: Ryan Silverfield’s group is an AAC team that could be CFP caliber. The Tigers finished the year by beating ISU in the Liberty Bowl en route to a 10-win season. Better yet, Memphis kept its big stars, which is no small feat these days outside of the Power 5. QB Seth Henigan is super smart, moves well and doesn’t make mistakes, and WR Roc Taylor is 6-3 and weighs 225 lbs. A monster that is a nightmare for defenses in confrontations. RB Sutton Smith has game-changing speed and will remind people of former Tigers star Kenny Gainwell. These guys are dangerous. They have to go to FSU in September, but beyond that, the Tigers should have more talent than everyone they face, although the games at USF and Tulane won’t be easy.
Best bets to sink
Cal’s road games in 2024 include Auburn, Florida State, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU. (Petre Thomas / USA Today)
California – 5.5 wins: The Bears finished 2023 on a good note and kept running back Jaydn Ott, but bowl eligibility looks like a steep climb as they enter their new existence in the ACC. They open at UC Davis, which should get 2024 off to a good start. After that, it’s not ideal. They cross the country to Auburn, then return home to play San Diego State, then return to the opposite corner of the country next week to visit FSU. They arrive in Miami at home before a third trip to the Eastern Time Zone to play at Pitt. Later in the season, they have to travel to Wake Forest. Other seemingly winnable games include Oregon State and Stanford.
UCLA – 5.5 wins: The only team that might have an even less forgiving travel schedule than the Bears is the Bruins. They open in Hawaii, which they should beat, but after facing Indiana they have a brutal three-game road trip at LSU, at home against Oregon and then at Penn State. After that, they host Minnesota before traveling further east to play at Rutgers. Later, there’s a trip to Nebraska, and six days later, Iowa visits. The good news is that UCLA has a good QB in Ethan Garbers; When he was healthy last year, the Bruins were good. But much of the defense needs to be rebuilt. Laiatu Latu and several others left for the NFL, and a couple of their most talented defensive backs left to cross town to USC with defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Notre Dame – 10.5 wins: The Irish have a good chance of making the playoffs this year, but I was surprised to see this number was so high. Marcus Freeman improved his staff in some key spots, especially with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. I like ND’s defense, especially on the D-line and in the secondary. QB Riley Leonard, the Duke transfer, is a tough kid and an excellent runner, but starting at Texas A&M against the coach who probably knows him best, Mike Elko, his former head coach with the Blue Devils, seems less than ideal . The Irish also get visits from Louisville and FSU (both are talented and well-coached) and then go to USC, where the Irish embarrassed last season. I suspect ND will split those four games.
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Believe the coaches who worked alongside him, it’s easy to bet on Mike Denbrock.
Washington – 7.5 wins: Yes, UDub just played for the national title and went 25-3 the last two seasons, but Michael Penix Jr. and almost every other starter on those teams are gone. The entire O line will be new. Jedd Fisch did an incredible job in his three years in Arizona, but here he faces a major rebuild. Except for the linebacker position, the Huskies will bring in guys with little experience. On the plus side, they have a manageable schedule for the first month: no road games, and it’s Weber State, EMU, Washington State and Northwestern. At worst, they should be 3-1, and 4-0 seems realistic. After that, it becomes much more difficult. They go to Rutgers, then host Michigan, visit Iowa, have a bye week, visit Indiana, play USC and visit Penn State before closing with UCLA in Seattle and visiting Oregon. Given all the roster turnover, I suspect getting past six wins will be a challenge.
USC – 7.5 wins: Lincoln Riley’s team went 7-5 last year, and that was under Caleb Williams. Can the Trojans be much better off without him? Miller Moss looked good in the bowling game, but the O-line still looks disappointing, and could look like a bigger problem without Williams’ wheels. Lynn will try to fix the defense, but it seems like he had better talent to work with at UCLA than he did this year. Many games seem thrown into the air once you get through a rough first month. Opening with LSU in Las Vegas seems risky. The Tigers still have a lot of talent. Towards the end of September, USC visits Michigan and then plays Wisconsin. It seems like a stretch to expect anything better than 2-2, and that’s when the tone could be set for a show still trying to figure out its identity. The good news is that the Trojans don’t have to play Ohio State or Oregon, but they will still play Penn State and Notre Dame and have some long trips to Minnesota and Maryland, with a closer test in Washington.
(Top photo by Florida State’s Jaylin Lucas: Melina Myers/USA Today)
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