There is an air of confidence within the Edmonton Oilers after crushing the Florida Panthers 8-1 on Saturday to secure their first Stanley Cup Final victory.
Make no mistake, though, confidence is different from arrogance.
“It’s just a victory. That’s it,” Connor McDavid said. “It doesn’t matter if you score eight or one, it’s just a win.”
The Oilers still have their work cut out for them as the series moves to South Florida for Game 5 on Tuesday. There’s no margin of error.
They must win again to keep their season alive (and then do it twice more without fail) to win the Cup.
“We have to go to Florida, do a job and drag them back to Alberta,” McDavid said.
The Oilers aren’t done yet, even if they’re down. They still have a chance if everything goes well.
That’s his thinking.
“This is another time where people have written us off,” coach Kris Knoblauch said. “But there is a lot of faith in this team. They feel good about themselves. “If they play their best, we have a chance.”
Here are three reasons why you should be optimistic about your Stanley Cup hopes:
The general perception is that Stuart Skinner’s performance has not been good enough in the playoffs this year. That is not an unfair point of view.
The Oilers goaltender has an .898 save percentage and lost his job for seven periods in a highly scrutinized Vancouver series. None of that is particularly inspiring.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Skinner Peaks have been as high as a mile. Check out this post by analytics expert Meghan Chayka.
While Sergei Bobrovsky has 3 of the top 9 GSAx single game performances during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Stuart Skinner now has 3 of the top 10, including his +2.38 GSAx performance in Game 4 on Saturday (4, +2.85 in Game 4 vs Kings | 10. +2.33 in Game 6 vs Stars). pic.twitter.com/FFnKfuvhod
—Meghan Chayka (@MeghanChayka) June 16, 2024
Skinner has had streaks, but his best starts came late in the series.
He stopped 60 of 61 shots in Los Angeles to help the Oilers take control in that matchup. He turned away 29 of the 32 pucks he faced in Games 6 and 7 after rebounding from his starting duties against the Canucks to lead the Oilers to the top. He outscored his counterpart Jake Oettinger in the final three games of the Western Conference finals, highlighted by his 33-save-on-34-shot effort in the deciding game. That might have been the best game of his NHL career.
Saturday’s blowout meant that Skinner’s work was largely overshadowed by his point-producing teammates. However, it is important to remember Skinner’s stop on Carter Verhaeghe in a two-on-one at 12:05 of the first period.
The score was only 2-1 then, so things might have been different if it weren’t for Skinner stretching to knock down Verhaeghe’s cross. Dylan Holloway scored the first of two goals that night 2:43 later to start the offensive attack that would eventually send Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to the bench.
“That was the biggest save you can get,” McDavid said.
“That was a message sender,” Oilers winger Connor Brown said. “A lot has been said about Bobrovsky in these first three games, but we have a young guy in goal who has an old soul, playing far above anything I could have done (25).
“Anytime he faces adversity, he’s a beast, and he makes timely saves like that. When he starts to find his rhythm, he is a scary goalkeeper.”
Skinner could have found that groove once again.
STUART SKINNER WITH AN INCREDIBLE SAVE 🔥
(🎥: @BR_OpenIce)pic.twitter.com/LALAZVuC5O
-TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 16, 2024
The power play could be finding its groove
It was only one goal, and with a two-man advantage no less, but the Oilers finally scored a goal on their power play. That happened when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins pocketed a loose puck off a Leon Draisaitl goal in the second period.
It wasn’t as pretty as most of the goals the Oilers scored in that situation, but you’re not asking how, are you?
“We’ve had a lot of looks over the first four games,” Draisaitl said. “It was certainly created enough for a couple to come in. But sometimes the game doesn’t work like that.
“I’m proud of the way we always stuck to it and continued to work at it and stay work-based. Hopefully we can take advantage of that a little bit.”
The Oilers didn’t take advantage of their success on the power play later in the game with the score already one-sided, so they are just 1 for 16 for a surprisingly low 6.3 percent.
But Draisaitl is surely right to suggest that he and the rest of his first unit teammates have his looks. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers have 21 shots and 11 high-danger opportunities in the series.
Maybe they just needed one to get things going. Remember, they went 4-for-5 against the Stars after failing to convert on their first six chances. Surely they do not suffer from a lack of faith in their abilities.
“The power play has been together for a long time and we’ve been great at what we do,” McDavid said. “We usually solve penalties and I hope we solve this one too.”
Control the flow of the game and possibly reach Sergei Bobrovsky
Aside from Game 2, the Oilers have had leads in the other three games at five-on-five. The numbers confirm it.
The Panthers have four more shot attempts, but the Oilers are outscoring them 87-77 and have an expected goals percentage of 53, according to NST. They have a 9-8 lead on the scoreboard, but that was reinforced by scoring six times in that situation on Saturday.
They feel like this series should be no worse than tied, but at least they’re finally starting to be rewarded for their efforts.
“There are no moral victories in hockey,” winger Zach Hyman said. “You’re losing three (games) even though you think you played pretty well. The key is to keep going.
“People on the outside see the score and see what the score of the series is. But in the locker room we feel that we are there. “That fueled the belief in this group.”
The other part of Saturday’s offensive breakthrough was Bobrovsky’s break. He was pulled after allowing five goals on 17 shots in 24:59. Consider the third period of Game 3, where the Oilers scored twice on six shots and have now beaten Bobrovsky on seven of the last 23 attempts on net.
“It’s a pretty simple game,” Hyman said. “You win more battles than the other team, you get more looks and you’re going to score.”
The Oilers are still waiting for their two leading scorers from the regular season and playoffs, Hyman and Draisaitl, to join the party. Hyman hasn’t found the net since Game 6 against Dallas. Draisaitl has not scored in six games.
If one or both break out, the Oilers will be in a good situation.
(Stuart Skinner Photo: Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire via /Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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