Falling to the Florida Panthers in six games in the Eastern Conference finals after winning the Presidents Trophy in the regular season has left the New York Rangers in an interesting situation.
They are clearly a very talented team. Not only are you lucky to lead the League with 55 wins and 114 points in the regular season, setting new franchise records in the process.
However, failing to advance past Game 6 of the conference finals for the second time in three seasons and a poor performance against a powerful Panthers team has left the organization with some tough questions to answer.
Certainly, there is an obvious need on the right. The expected departure of Jack Roslovic in free agency exacerbates the hole in the top six, and general manager Chris Drury said internal and external candidates would be considered to fill that spot.
As it happens, this year’s free agent market could boast two standout options.
Sam Reinhart of the Panthers and Jake Guentzel of the Carolina Hurricanes will become unrestricted free agents on July 1. Adding either of them would be an incredibly difficult move for Drury given the Rangers’ current salary cap situation, but it would certainly solve a lot of problems.
While Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere thrived together, Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad couldn’t find the same level of success with a rotating cast of partners last season. After New York’s stars were stifled by a dominant Florida team, the demand for a dynamic first-line right winger has never been greater.
The Rangers have $13.7 million in projected cap space after the San Jose Sharks claimed veteran forward Barclay Goodrow off waivers on Wednesday. They still need to re-sign defensemen Braden Schneider and Ryan Lindgren, each of whom will be restricted free agents. Getting them back will likely cost a combined $6-7 million for the Rangers.
New York also needs a sixth or seventh defenseman and probably a cheap veteran center for the fourth line now that Goodrow is gone.
That doesn’t leave much cash to add a quality top-six right wing, especially one of Reinhart or Guentzel’s pedigree, unless there’s a planned buyout for captain Jacob Trouba or a trade that frees up a few more dollars.
Therefore, a lot would still have to happen for the Rangers to have enough cap space to offer Reinhart or Guentzel a competitive contract. That said, it’s hard to think of anyone who fits better on the right than Reinhart.
Related: What the Devils’ trade for Jacob Markstrom means for the Rangers
Sam Reinhart is an intriguing free agent fit for Rangers right wing
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Reinhart offers solid size (six-foot-two, 193 pounds) and plenty of offensive talent. He is coming off a career year in which he finished second in the League with 57 goals and 94 points. It is the first time he has surpassed the 50 goal and 90 point mark in any season.
The 28-year-old was incredibly opportunistic on the power play, leading the NHL with 27 man-advantage goals. The Rangers were excellent in the regular season with the third-best power play in the League, but it petered out in the postseason, finishing two of their last 25 and 1 of 15 against the Panthers. Reinhart has 105 career power play goals of his own, so he would help out there.
Even if Reinhart never leads again this season, as it would be difficult to replicate a League-leading 24.5 shooting percentage year after year, he has still set a high standard of excellence since joining the Panthers three years ago. He scored more than 30 goals in each of the previous seasons and scored 82 points in the 2021-22 season.
If there’s a problem with Reinhart, it’s that he’s not as explosive even at strength. He scored less than half of his goals this season (25) at even strength, still a big number, but he had 32 on special teams (27 on the power play, five shorthanded). He has typically scored between 15 and 17 goals per season in his career. In total, Reinhart has 255 goals in 696 NHL games.
His offense alone makes him a tempting target, and his two-way game really makes him an ideal candidate for New York.
Reinhart finished fourth in Selke voting this year and in the top 30 in each of the previous two seasons. He has bought into coach Paul Maurice’s system, fitting in perfectly with Florida’s relentless forechecking. Along with Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov, he has helped give opponents top-line attacks this postseason.
Coach Peter Laviolette’s 1-3-1 neutral zone setup is a little different than the front control run in Florida, but Reinhart’s defensive ability and aggressiveness would still be a huge asset in Broadway.
Guentzel is an excellent scorer, scoring 30 in 67 games this year, but he is nowhere near the two-way player that Reinhart is. Guentzel ranked below average in defensive percentile this season; Reinhart ranked in the 98th percentile.
It’s hard to top the postseason resume of Guentzel, who made the Stanley Cup Playoffs in seven of his eight NHL seasons, winning the Cup in his 2017 rookie campaign, when he led all postseason skaters in goals. . The Rangers could certainly use someone with proven playoff success, particularly after a conference finals when most of their stars were neutralized.
But Reinhart is no slouch in his own right. He has played a big role in helping the Panthers reach the Stanley Cup Final, a series they lead 3-2 after losing Game 5, 5-3 to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday. In fact, he has been a key part of Florida reaching the final round in consecutive seasons.
His nine goals are second on the team in these playoffs, behind only Carter Verhaeghe, and he scored eight in last year’s postseason, which also tied him for second on the team in that streak. He has made the playoffs in each of the three seasons since the July 2021 offseason trade that sent him from the Buffalo Sabers to Florida.
Reinhart is likely to land a long-term deal with an AAV of over $8 million. Guentzel could see even more.
Either contract would put Drury in an incredibly difficult situation next offseason. In addition to Panarin ($11.6 million AAV), Adam Fox ($9 million), Zibanejad ($8.5 million), Trouba ($8 million) and Kreider ($6.5 million), all still under contract, Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller will need to sign new ones RFA reaches deals after next season and Igor Shesterkin could be in line to become the NHL’s highest-paid goaltender as he faces free agency no restrictions after the 2024-25 season.
Adding another big contract to the mix certainly won’t make the offseason any easier. However, the next year or two could be the Rangers’ best chance to win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994.
If you look at things from a purely “win now” perspective, adding a right winger like Reinhart could be just what the Blueshirts need to finally take them over the top and hoist the Cup.
It’s a short-sighted, improbable outcome, a dream scenario, whatever you want to call it. But in theory it could be done, and when it comes to major updates, it doesn’t get any bigger than that.
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