Jake Guentzel would solve many of the New York Rangers‘ problems. Unfortunately, adding him to the roster would be a nearly impossible task for general manager Chris Drury.
The 30-year-old future forward is coming off three consecutive 30+ goal seasons, finishing the most recent with 30 goals and 77 points in 67 games split between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes. He is a left shooter who can play on the right, a spot where the Rangers desperately want more production.
Unless he re-signs with the Hurricanes in the next two weeks, Guentzel will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and one of the most sought-after players this offseason.
There is no doubt that he would fit perfectly on the first line alongside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, who have been looking for a long-term partner since Pavel Buchnevich was traded to the St. Louis Blues in 2021.
The Rangers and Drury also think so and are reportedly pushing hard to acquire the best winger available as a rental before the NHL trade deadline.
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In other trade rumors, I still hear #NYR They are very interested in conversations about Guentzel. It seems that CAR and VGK could be the main competitors.
Several sources wondered if Drury can pull it off without using a top prospect. Perreault still sounds like a firm no, but could he soften on Othmann?
– Vince Z. Mercogliano (@vzmercogliano) March 7, 2024
Drury reportedly put together a competitive package, but it wasn’t enough, and Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas sent him to the Hurricanes in exchange for Michael Bunting, three forward prospects, and conditional first- and fifth-round picks.
“As far as I can tell, the only way the Rangers were going to convince the Penguins to trade Guentzel to New York instead of Carolina was to bring in top prospect Gabe Perreault or two of three from Will Cuylle’s group of young forwards. Kaapo Kakko and Brennan Othmann,” USA Today Rangers reporter Vince Mercogliano wrote in his post-deadline recap.
Drury was unwilling to meet those demands, and Guentzel joined the Hurricanes, scoring three goals and five points against the Rangers in the second of the Stanley Cup Playoffs despite New York emerging victorious in six games.
The 2017 Stanley Cup champion has a knack for putting the puck in the net, particularly in the playoffs, where he has scored 38 goals and 67 points in 69 career postseason games. That’s something the Rangers would love to have after getting two combined goals from Zibanejad, Kreider, Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox in a six-game losing streak to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals.
Related: Why Tyler Toffoli could be a eligible free agent for the Rangers
Rangers face major hurdles in trying to sign free agent Jake Guentzel
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Signing Guentzel will not be an easy task this summer. Trying to acquire him before the deadline was already difficult, but that pales in comparison to trying to fit him under the salary cap this offseason.
After re-signing Kakko to a one-year, $2.4 million contract last week, the Rangers have $10.05 million in projected cap space, ninth-lowest in the League, according to PuckPedia. Drury can still trade Kakko and get his $2.4 million off the books, but that doesn’t give them much cushion.
The Rangers must make a decision with defensemen Braden Schneider (expected to sign a bridge deal) and Ryan Lindgren (seeking a raise and long-term security), who also must sign new contracts with the RFA. If both return, it will likely be at least another $6-7 million against the salary cap.
Alex Wennberg, Jack Roslovic, Blake Wheeler and Erik Gustafsson are eligible to be unrestricted free agents on July 1, although it’s doubtful New York will bring back any of them.
Still, that doesn’t leave much cap room. Even if the Rangers buy out the contracts of Jacob Trouba and Barclay Goodrow, an unlikely move but one that would free up more than $7.6 million next season, it still might not be enough to give Guentzel the contract he’s seeking.
Timo Meier earned an eight-year, $8.8 million AAV extension with the New Jersey Devils after posting three consecutive 30+ goal seasons with point totals relatively similar to Guentzel’s. Wingers like Panarin ($11.6 million AAV) and Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75 million AAV) landed even bigger deals after testing the open market.
Guentzel may not be the point producer and all-around playmaker that Panarin and Gaudreau were upon signing, but he will likely be one of the two best wingers available this summer, which should result in a very large paycheck. nice when all is said and done. If Guentzel hits free agency, there will be plenty of teams pushing hard to land him, and with that in mind, it’s not unrealistic to think his next deal will approach, if not exceed, $9 million AAV. He is coming off a contract that averaged $6 million per.
A trade for Kakko, combined with the buyout of Trouba and Goodrow’s contracts, frees up about $10 million in cap space next year. That gives the Rangers a chance to sign Guentzel, but would he really improve the team at that point?
Sure, they would finally acquire the prolific scoring right wing that the team has clearly been looking for. However, they are probably left with more problems than answers.
Even with RFA deals for Schneider and Lindgren and making Zac Jones a regular, you would still need to sign a defenseman to replace Trouba and possibly another to have him as your seventh D-man.
Guentzel swaps with Kakko, but you’d still need another right-wing option with Roslovic gone. Then you also need to replace Goodrow, who may not be a consistent source of offense but logs important minutes, playing center on penalties and on their top check line.
The Rangers would be forced to fill most of those holes internally, and while prospects like Brennan Othmann and Brett Berard are intriguing, it would create a lack of depth throughout the lineup and a largely untested bottom six for a contender. the Stanley Cup.
Not to mention it would shock the locker room to part ways with Trouba, the Rangers captain and a stand-in captain at Goodrow. Maybe this Rangers core needs a little shock, but that seems excessive.
Mind you, that’s just to be under the salary cap for next season. Next summer, the Rangers will still have Panarin’s $11.6 million on the books and will also have to pay for Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller, assuming they all re-sign.
Shesterkin, who can be a UFA at the end of the 2024-25 season, has a strong chance of becoming the NHL’s highest-paid goaltender, while Lafreniere and Miller could get substantial pay raises as RFAs.
Turning 30 next season, this is likely Guentzel’s last chance at a big payday. You have to think he’ll be looking for the maximum seven years on his contract (eight if he re-signs with Carolina), something most elite forwards get in their big free agent contracts.
Rangers are in a “win now” window and should therefore take advantage of every opportunity to become Cup contenders next season. However, if you put them in a position where it’s harder to extend Shesterkin and/or Lafreniere’s extension, that’s a really tough pill to swallow and would make it very difficult to compete after Panarin’s contract expires after the season. 2025-26.
In the grand scheme of things, the Rangers’ best chance to hook up with Guentzel was probably at the trade deadline. Hindsight is 20/20, but the way the offense dried up in the conference finals paints last season in a much different light than it did for most of the year.
In retrospect, perhaps Drury should have been more willing to part ways with both Kakko and Othmann to acquire the elite right winger with proven postseason success before the trade deadline. And maybe that would have been the offensive boost the Rangers needed to overcome the Panthers and reach the Stanley Cup Final.
But hypotheses are just that. Guentzel went to Carolina and couldn’t get past the second round. He’s now in for a big payday, one that isn’t worth it for the Rangers considering all the heavy lifting they’d have to do to make that a possibility.
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