The idea that there is such a thing as a “Raptors-type prospect” has taken a hit in recent years.
With their two lottery picks since 2020, they chose college freshmen (Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick). With their two picks in the middle third of the now two-day affair, they chose players who logged three college seasons, but one who was relatively new to the sport (Christian Koloko) and another who grew up around the game (Malachi Flynn). . ). There was no clear line between their three picks in the second half of the second round (Jalen Harris, Dalano Banton and Jalen Harris).
There is little to conclude within that group. Duration, positions and playing styles vary. There are elite shooters and non-shooters. Sometimes it seemed like they recruited out of necessity (with Dick and Koloko, particularly) and other times it seemed like position was a tertiary concern.
The Raptors enter next week’s Draft with picks 19 and 31. They have so many needs and no consistent track record in recent years that it seems silly to fixate on one trait or position. Even its timeline, which would affect whether long-term growth should be prioritized over the potential for immediate impact, is open to interpretation.
With that in mind, let’s get to know the six players most likely to become Raptors at the end of next week’s draft. We’ll start with the guards today and move on to the wings and bigs later in the week. (Special thanks to Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, whose work scouting is invaluable to readers and colleagues alike.)
Isaiah Collier | Southern California | 19 years
6ft 4 | 210 pounds | First year student
16.3 points per game | 4.9 assists per game | 49.0 field goal percentage
Collier is the guard with the greatest potential who could fall to the Raptors. He is an athletic beast who routinely tries to put pressure on the rim. Most of his creation for others comes from the ability to draw help defenders in the paint. He is very strong for such a young player, and strength generally improves as the player approaches his 20s.
Unlike the Raptors’ recent point guards, Collier is excellent at finishing at the rim thanks to his athleticism. That should open up more passes for him and make them easier too.
Since he is a freshman, Collier’s game needs refinement. He is prone to turnovers and his defense, which could be a positive in the future, was not good for USC this year. His shooting is inconsistent and he doesn’t see the floor excellently if he doesn’t get to the rim. Presumably, many of those things could come over time.
The raptors fit: The Raptors expect Immanuel Quickley and Dick to fill out their backcourt for a long time. They need depth beyond them, especially if Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown leave this summer. Collier represents one of the biggest trades the Raptors could make with raw talent, should he drop to 19.
On the other hand, he doesn’t play with enough control to automatically elevate the floor for the Raptors’ reserves. He will likely take a while to thrive within Darko Rajaković’s offensive system, given that he is not a developed shooter and is used to having the ball in his hands.
Jared McCain | Duke | twenty
6-3 | 200 pounds. | First year student
14.3 points per game | 1.9 KeynoteUSAG | 41.4 3-point percentage
He’s more of an off guard than a point guard, but McCain can shoot well. He is one of the best pure shooters in his class. He’ll probably be gone before the 19th pick, but his size at least makes it possible for him to slide.
In a perfect world, McCain would develop his playmaking skills and become a combo guard. He still isn’t (see the assist totals), but at least he showed he can make passes in straight sets for him. He won’t be an offensive initiator early in his career, but he could grow into that role.
He is a player with a lot of character and that often translates into being a better defender than projected. McCain’s combined metrics say it will be a challenge to become a good defender. His wingspan is only 6-3.5.
The raptors fit: In the short term, he would make sense in hybrid lineups with Barnes as the de facto point guard. Playing Quickley would be a tall order at this point, except in offensive lineups in comeback situations.
He doesn’t have as high a ceiling as Collier, but his shot probably makes him an effective scorer off the bench, at worst.
Ja’Kobe Walter’s height would make him a good fit for the Raptors. (Justin Ford//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
Ja’Kobe Walter | Baylor | 19
6ft 4 | 198 pounds.| First year student
14.5 points per game | 1.4 KeynoteUSAG | 37.6 field goal percentage
Like McCain, he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard at this point. However, he has more size than his fellow freshman. He didn’t have an efficient season, but that’s in part because he made tough shots with regularity within Baylor’s offense.
Walter has a 6-foot-10 wingspan, which should allow him to be an impactful defender once he adds more muscle. Still, he has a better chance of being an asset on offense, due to his polished footwork and movement, than on defense.
He will have to refine his shot selection in the NBA. Moving down the offensive pecking order should allow him to do so, but he’s not super athletic, which makes getting to the rim a challenge.
The raptors fit: His length alone makes him a possibility for the Raptors. Sure, the team’s defensive philosophy has changed since the departure of Nick Nurse, but his size will make up for some of his athletic deficiencies. He understands the team’s defense well, which could get him on the court even if he was targeted on the ball.
I’m more concerned about his offensive fit, even if that’s where his advantages lie. Any player who relies as much as Walter on long 3-pointers will have to get that out of his NBA system. Doing that while the game is speeding up could be problematic, so it makes it a more long-term project than it seems at first glance.
Most importantly, it would allow me to purchase a t-shirt with the appropriate name for my dog.
Ajay Mitchell | California-Santa Barbara | 22
6-3 | 200 pounds. | junior
20.0 points per game | 4.0 KeynoteUSAG | 39.3 3-point percentage
Mitchell is one of the most polished point guards in this part of the draft, a potential opening night reserve. Unsurprisingly, as a college student, his game is much more developed than that of the three freshmen above him. He has counterattacks when his initial movements are stopped and can excel in areas where defenses try to funnel players.
His shooting is a big question mark. He was good from deep this year, but he lived in the 20s and 30s his first two seasons. He has been efficient in other areas throughout his career, but the 3-point shot is new and therefore not guaranteed to stick.
He doesn’t have the burst that Collier has. He has very good size for his position, but he will have to use that and his intelligence instead of his speed and jump to make things work in the NBA. If his shot doesn’t land, that would really limit his offensive ceiling.
The raptors fit: Mitchell’s shot is the issue. If he can stay in his mid-to-mid 30s, he is a legitimate prospect and has the size and intelligence to be a really good third guard for the Raptors. Otherwise, he could be eliminated from the league.
His intelligence should allow him to thrive in a structured environment, so I think Mitchell could pick up pretty quickly on what the Raptors want to do on both ends. Plus, he grew up in Belgium, which means more stories about international basketball. Hurrah!
It would make a lot of sense at 31 years old, less at 19.
Jamal Shead | Houston | twenty-one
6-0 | 201 lbs. | senior
12.9 points per game | 6.3 KeynoteUSAG | 40.9 field goal percentage
He is a human lightning bolt who uses his speed on both ends: to create space for his teammates and eliminate space for his opponents. He has the potential to be a fan favorite.
He is also small. He was excellent defensively in college, but he may not be able to overcome his size playing against bigger players more regularly. He is not a 3-point shooter, which will hurt his ability to be a maestro in the NBA like he was in college.
Even without a jumper, he is excellent using screens. The NBA will force you to develop more of an intermediate game, but you can slow down when necessary to allow a play to develop.
The raptors fit: Shead has some shades of Fred VanVleet and very different shades of Markquis Nowell. His soft skills (leadership, confidence, experience) make him a natural for the Raptors.
However, his size and lack of shooting put him at great risk of failing or perhaps having an Ish Smith-type journeyman career. The latter is a good result for the 31st pick in what is considered a weak draft, but the Raptors are at a point where they need to swing a little harder. I would be surprised, if not surprised, if it ended up in Toronto.
Cam Spencer | Connecticut | 24
6-4 | 205 lbs. | senior
18.9 points per game | 3.2 KeynoteUSAG | 35.3 3 point percentage
He’s an older prospect, but he’s a winner. He has all the soft skills you’d want in a player, including a willingness to talk trash, apparently. He is a good decision maker. He is a good shooter and last year he represented his group.
The downside, to be frank: He’s old, small, and unathletic. Spencer would be the opposite of a positive choice. His shooting could help him hang around, but considering he’s not a pure point guard, he would be a handful for any team.
He will be attacked defensively. At both Connecticut and Rutgers, he was part of great defenses, but that had more to do with the players around him than his own play. He plays hard, but that’s not as important in the battle in the NBA as it is in college.
The raptors fit: I love the idea of Spencer at the bottom of the Raptors roster. This roster doesn’t have a lot of swagger and I think Spencer’s toughness and confidence would be important elements in helping the franchise regain some of that lost luster.
He may not be a good enough or big enough athlete to hang. I would love to have a two-way contract, but I think you have to go a little further with the picks the Raptors have. If they add another late second round? Sure.
(Top photo: James Snook / USA Today)
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