The contender-building model in the NFL these days tends to involve finding a franchise quarterback (or someone close to that level), then paying big money to defense and skill-position players to maximize the roster. You have to accomplish this in the available period before giving a historic big money to the quarterback on his second contract. We’ve seen some outliers of this model in recent years, but for the most part, that’s what NFL teams are trying to do.
The NBA is different for multiple reasons, though. When it comes to collective bargaining agreements, roster sizes and overall player empowerment, things are apples-to-apples.
As this new collective bargaining agreement has come into play in the NBA, we are seeing a more calculating approach from many teams. The roster restrictions and penalties (no longer just monetary) for applying the luxury tax and the first or second seed associated with that level of spending have already scared off two Western Conference teams.
The Clippers decided it wasn’t worth limiting what the roster could do if they gave Paul George the four-year max. He’s now headed to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Warriors made the tough decision to let Klay Thompson know they couldn’t value him in a way that would put them in the dreaded second tier. Now we’re watching him take his ship to another team in the West.
These are the tough decisions teams are facing as they ponder whether what they have is worth not only the taxes but also the restrictions of restructuring the roster. For the Clippers and Warriors, they were no longer close enough to a title to justify sticking with the core and the status quo.
However, four teams appear to be looking at this new CBA and questioning it.
• The first was last year, when the Phoenix Suns decided to bring in Bradley Beal to pair with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Despite a new collective bargaining agreement designed to ruin the idea of superteams, Mat Ishbia and company decided they weren’t going to be told how they were allowed to build a championship-contending team. Unfortunately for them, they quickly discovered how difficult it is to sign minimum-salary players to fill out a championship-level rotation. By the time we got to the playoffs, the flaws were glaring and unavoidable, and Phoenix was swept in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Suns had to start from scratch again this summer to find minimum-salary players who can give Mike Budenholzer the kind of rotation that complements the stars on the court. Title hopes have been thrown cold water on them, as they appear stalled unless they part ways with Durant, Booker, or both. (Remember: Beal is in a good position with that no-trade clause.)
• The Boston Celtics have acquired a six-man core that is a wealth of talent but has been devastating over the past year. With a historic contract already offered to Jaylen Brown, the Celtics realized they had to keep this window open for a couple of years.
Brown is under contract through 2029 with nearly $300 million tied up with the reigning NBA Finals MVP. They brought in Jrue Holiday and quickly signed him to an extension that will keep him in Boston through at least the summer of 2027. He has a $37 million player option for the 2027-2028 season. Kristaps Porziņģis has two more years with the Celtics under contract for $60 million. Derrick White just received a four-year extension worth nearly $130 million. And now Jayson Tatum has received his historic supermax deal that should keep him with the franchise through 2030 or so. And it looks like Wyc Grousbeck will be able to offload the bill by selling his stake in the team, not having to make any of the tough decisions down the road about where to cut costs when the CBA calls for parts of this roster and collecting billions as a hero owner who brought multiple titles back to Boston.
• The Sixers know the limitations of this collective bargaining agreement, but they’re still going with the three-star strategy. Daryl Morey believes the combination of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and soon-to-be-signed George is the right balance for what his team needs.
They’re adding Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Jared McCain to the fold, and they also brought back Kelly Oubre Jr. from last season’s team. But in the process of assembling these three stars, Morey still has the task of filling out a roster with mostly minimum-level signings, and competing with other contenders or potential contenders to court difference-makers who might be willing to accept a huge discount in pursuit of a championship.
The problem for the Sixers is that they don’t have anyone who can really sell these potential signings on a clear path to contention that will take them to the top. Embiid’s health and playoff performance will always be in question until he proves that they shouldn’t be. George has made a pair of conference finals, but he’s never been a true contender. The Sixers could find themselves in a less dramatic situation, but one similar to Phoenix’s the past two summers.
• The fourth team to blow up their Venmo account against the CBA is the Oklahoma City Thunder, and this is where we get back to that NFL construction model.
The Thunder have one of the youngest teams in the NBA, but they just finished a season as the No. 1 seed in a crowded West and a second-round playoff appearance. It’s a big step up from last year, when they had 40 wins and didn’t make it past the play-in tournament. They have a ton of young talent that continues to develop in real time.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is under contract through the summer of 2027, when he will receive his own landmark contract (the Thunder’s hope). A year from now, the Thunder will likely offer max extensions to Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the other two stars alongside Gilgeous-Alexander. They have a window of probably three or four years before the CBA comes knocking on the Thunder front office’s door.
That’s why you see the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein, who will add some weight to balance out their attack. That’s why you saw them trade Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, even though Caruso will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Thunder see their opportunity before the small-market team has to make some very tough decisions about how to pay the tax or keep the team together (or both). They almost have to make these bold, high-cost, short-term moves before those extensions are implemented, because the new CBA isn’t designed to help teams that were built the right way stay together.
More teams are likely to replicate what the Sixers, Celtics or Suns are attempting than the Thunder, because it’s really hard to get the kind of young player acquisitions OKC has done in recent years. But it will be fascinating to see how teams approach the CBA in the coming years.
(Photo of Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant: Maddie Meyer//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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