This was one of the weeks where you could hear a groan when the NASCAR Xfinity Series entry list came out.
That’s because you knew Christopher Bell swooped in to ruin the fun.
Bell is always a threat when coming from the Cup. But he had to do it in New Hampshire, possibly his best track.
Bell has made nine races at the track in NASCAR’s three major series. He won five of them, including all three in Xfinity, and finished second in two others.
He is a demon.
That’s why Bell is -110 to win at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds. He’s getting the full Kyle Busch treatment in a truck, and you can understand why.
My model just can’t get there right now. With only 200 laps scheduled, the margin for error is minimal, both during qualifying and during the race.
Therefore, it’s important to note that Bell is lurking, and any player we like will have to outplay him to win. But this is what my model has before practice and classification.
Christopher Bell | 34.9% | 68.5% | 79.4% |
Alex Bowman | 10.7% | 33.3% | 52.0% |
Chandler Smith | 9.2% | 30.8% | 48.4% |
Cole Custer | 8.5% | 28.8% | 46.9% |
Justin Allgaier | 6.1% | 20.5% | 36.0% |
Samuel Mayer | 5.0% | 17.4% | 31.2% |
Sheldon’s Creed | 4.7% | 15.7% | 28.8% |
Even sitting at 34.9% is huge for Bell. If I run the simulators pretending that practice and qualifying have already been done with Bell on pole (and no key competitors showing flashy speed) I would shoot up to 52.2%. But with much still to be decided, Bell is not a value at his current number.
The problem is that it also sucks up tons of profit in the Sims, so finding value elsewhere is difficult. Alex Bowman he’s slightly undervalued at +900 (10.7% for me vs. 10.0% implied), but with rain in the forecast, there’s a decent chance Bowman starts from behind. Therefore, I would like to see them post qualifying times before endorsing Bowman.
To find the next driver where I am above the market, you need to jump up to +8000. That is Brandon Jones.
Jones is similar to Bowman: He’s in trouble if qualifying is rained out. So, once again, it may be best to postpone the bet if he wants to.
But Jones is a value simply because positive regression awaits him. He has failed to finish three races in a row and six of the last 10. Many of them have not been his fault; He’s just been unlucky.
However, when things go his way, Jones has shown his potential on tracks like this. He won Martinsville and was runner-up at Phoenix in 2022, and averaged three top-eight finishes in short- and flat-track races last year, his first season with JR Motorsports. Jones also had a win at Phoenix in 2020, meaning two of his five career wins came at venues similar to New Hampshire.
The model doesn’t necessarily adore Jones; has only 2.2% to win. But that’s still well above their implied odds of 1.2% at +8000. Again, concerns about qualifying being rained out are real, but if I had to place a bet before I had that information, it would be on Jones.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in bonus bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See full terms and conditions here. Check out today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which driver catches your attention in New Hampshire? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds for the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The author above is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the opinions of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
Keynote USA
For the Latest Sports News, Follow Keynote USA Sports on Twitter.