Over the past month, it has become clear that parity is increasing in the NASCAR Cup Series.
The season began with Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing dominating, winning 10 of the first 12 races (including all eight on non-drafted ovals). It was clear that everyone else was in catch-up mode.
But recently, Fords have made a resurgence. They’ve combined to win three of the last five, and they’ve had plenty of tough moments along that stretch, too. Instead of having a handful of cars in competition, we’re sniffing around double digits.
That is reflected in my betting pattern for this week. Eight drivers have winning odds between 9.8% and 7.0% before things finally start to go downhill. There are drivers we can favor because of their track record, but the pool of drivers who can win is quite large.
When looking at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NASCAR betting odds for New Hampshire, it’s the lower end of that tier that stands out the most. We get a somewhat similar advantage without having to pay a total price as low as +450.
Let’s discuss who that driver is from time to time and then describe other points where I see value before practice and qualifying.
Chase Elliott will win (+1400)
Chase Elliott enters New Hampshire as the Cup Series points leader more due to consistency than advantages. He only has one win and his 137 laps led rank 11th in the series right now.
However, that advantage has been greater on tracks like this, allowing me to back Elliott on the lower end of that top tier.
Of Elliott’s seven top-five finishes, three came on short, flat tracks. He has had an average top-10 finish in the five races in this group (if you include Gateway), and finished third last week at Iowa. Although he won at a 1.5-mile track, Elliott has been more consistently on the Hunt on short, flat trails.
Elliott’s history in New Hampshire is strong. Before a poor performance last year, he was runner-up in 2022 and led 53 laps in 2021. Last year’s disappointing performance was part of a bad situation for Hendrick on this type of track, something they have apparently corrected this year.
For me, Elliott is near the bottom of the top tier of drivers. I have him with a 7.9% chance of winning, ranking seventh among all drivers. But with its implied odds of just 6.7%, I think the market overstates the gap between Elliott and the top six a bit.
Bubba Wallace will finish in the top 5 (+550); Wallace will finish in the top 10 (+170)
Bubba Wallace He began his recovery on short, flat tracks in New Hampshire in 2022. He’s continued that progression since then, and I think we should be very excited about him when he returns to the track.
In that 2022 race, Wallace had a race-average position of sixth and finished third. It was his first career top 5 finish on a track less than 2.5 miles, so it was a big departure in form for him.
Since then, he has proven that it was no coincidence. Wallace has had an average top-eight finish in four of the last eight races on short, flat tracks, converting one of them into a fourth-place finish at Martinsville this year. Beyond Martinsville, the results haven’t always been there, but Wallace appears to be in line for a positive regression.
As a result, I am well above the market in Wallace for both a top 5 and top 10 finish. Therefore, I would like to take my typical bet size and split it, putting the majority on Wallace finishing in the top 10 and the rest on finishing in the top 5, which would give me an advantage in case Wallace has another attack here. I also show value for Wallace to win at +4000 if you’re feeling really frisky.
Daniel Suárez will finish in the top 10 (+500)
Daniel Suarez He’s coming off a great run last week at Iowa when he ran up front all day and finished ninth. I think he can do it again this weekend.
New Hampshire was a great track for Suarez back in the day. He had a pair of top 10s here as a rookie in 2017. Sure, he was on a great team with Joe Gibbs Racing, but it was his age-25 season. He proved it wasn’t all down to the JGR team when he finished ninth here with Trackhouse Racing in 2022.
Like Wallace, Suárez has had bad luck finishing on short, flat tracks. Only two of his four average top-10 finishes in short-flat track races in the Next-Gen era have resulted in top-10 finishes. This could be fundamentally wrong, but it usually hints at an upcoming uptrend.
My model has Suarez at 29.5% of finishing in the top 10, well above his implied odds of 16.7%. Like Wallace, I also show value for Suarez to finish in the top 5 at +2000, but I’m a little more skeptical about the advantages here. That is why for now we will only stick with the top 10.
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Which New Hampshire driver stands out to you? Check out the latest NASCAR betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for the full menu of options.
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The author above is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the opinions of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
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