Let’s imagine, for a moment, that someone other than John Henry owned the Boston Red Sox, and that owner was hell-bent on accelerating the team’s astonishing progress rather than worrying about how it might stagnate.
What is the first thing that owner would do? Throwing Craig Counsell’s money at Alex Cora. That’s right, ignore Cora’s comments about her not wanting to negotiate during the season. Make him an offer of $40 million and see how quickly he becomes attentive.
What would our owner do next? Declare, unequivocally, that the Red Sox are buyers, to further convince Cora to stay. Sure, there’s a chance the team could tank in the next month, as evidenced by its two lopsided losses to the San Diego Padres over the weekend. It doesn’t matter. The expanded playoffs are a gift that keeps on paying off for teams that really try, a six-month lifeline.
Season-ending injuries to shortstop Trevor Story and right-handers Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock should have crushed the Red Sox, whose opening-day payroll of $171 million was the franchise’s lowest since 2014. Instead , the team is 44-39, 1 1/2 games back in the race for the third wild card, thanks to its improved pitching and wave of young athletic talent. And first baseman Triston Casas, who has been out since late April with torn cartilage in his left rib cage, is expected to return after the All-Star break.
Cora made his feelings known last week, telling reporters: “I know we’ve been talking about the wild card and all that. Hey, let’s be ambitious… This type of baseball, I think we can maintain the level we’re playing. Let’s not settle for the third wild card, let’s go higher and see where the season takes us.”
In today’s game, where teams are constantly hedging their bets, thinking about their playoff odds and hoarding prized prospects, this kind of talk is unusually bold. For the Red Sox, who were largely inert over the past two deadlines under Chaim Bloom — “Honestly, we didn’t get better,” Cora said. “We just stayed the same” — it’s practically a radical manifesto.
A pair of trades to add significant help at the deadline would put a smile on Alex Cora’s face. (Douglas P. DeFelice//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
Bloom, who has since been replaced by Craig Breslow, deserves credit for developing much of the young core, and also for a trade for which he was heavily criticized: Christian Vazquez to the Houston Astros for Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. For all anyone knows, he could have pushed ownership to spend last offseason, feeling the team was ready to move on. Instead, the Red Sox strayed from president Tom Werner’s promise to go “full steam ahead,” and largely hesitated again.
Henry, who rarely gives interviews, recently offered the Financial Times insight into his thought process, making two particularly outrageous comments.
No. 1: “Because fans expect championships almost every year, they get frustrated easily and don’t accept the real odds: one in 20 or one in 30.”
No. 2: “(Werner’s comments) overshadowed every word, paragraph and interview of the winter because they cut so deeply into the false beliefs held by many fans and media outlets that the future must be mortgaged each year for the present.”
Number 1 is false. The Red Sox’s odds shouldn’t be 1 in 20 or 1 in 30, not with the advantages they have as a high-revenue club.
Point 2 is also false. Almost no fan or media believes that teams should mortgage the future in exchange for the present. If anything, too many fans and media are conditioned to accept otherwise, to believe the hype about prospects, to “trust the process” and applaud their favorite teams for not spending.
The Red Sox ended the “curse of the Bambino” under Henry and won four World Series in 15 years. Those achievements, while considerable, do not entitle him to baseball’s version of diplomatic immunity. Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski, fired shortly after building championship clubs, received no such grace. Players on those teams also did not receive lifetime contracts.
In an interview Saturday, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy vowed to be more transparent about the team’s intentions at the deadline, saying, “I need to do a better job of being very clear about the direction and where we’re headed.” The Red Sox, like many teams, haven’t decided whether to buy, sell or do both. But they’re most likely in the same undefined position they were in at the past two deadlines. Their playoff odds right now are about 32 percent.
No rational fan would expect the Red Sox to make a risky trade for one of their top three prospects — shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony or catcher Kyle Teel. But Breslow, in a Q&A with The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey, acknowledged that the system has plenty of middle infielders. Surely, the Red Sox can find a deal or two that will help them both now and in the future.
The team’s No. 1 need is a starting pitcher — someone like, ahem, Chris Sale, traded by the Red Sox in late December for infielder Vaughn Grissom, who has been injured for much of the season. The Red Sox’s rotation ERA has risen from 2.00 in March/April to 4.49 in May to 5.22 in June. And the team’s depth probably isn’t enough to withstand another starter injury.
The middle infield is another area of potential improvement. A rental shortstop would be ideal, with Story expected to return next season and Mayer close to the majors. There likely won’t be one available, but Angels second baseman Luis Rengifo, who leads the American League with a .317 batting average, would be a useful addition. And he’s under club control through 2025.
For all the talk about moving Kenley Jansen, the Red Sox should only do so if they can find a team willing to trade a potential free agent starter for a potential free agent reliever. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and is currently out with inflammation in his right hip, might not be the right fit, but that would be the idea. An even better idea would be to keep Jansen and trade him for a starter in some other way. If the Sox really want to contend, they shouldn’t rely on Liam Hendriks, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, to close.
And that’s the thing: The Red Sox should get serious about competing. Their average attendance is down just a bit from last season, largely because fans appreciate the Fenway experience. But if the team is in a reasonable position, trades for potential free agents like Jansen, outfielder Tyler O’Neill and right-hander Nick Pivetta would further alienate the fan base. They would also seal Cora’s departure, which shouldn’t be inevitable, but it sure seems that way.
“The best way to make a statement is to do the right thing in the entire baseball operation. Invest in every area of the operation: scouting, player development, analytics, big league level,” Kennedy said. “I know the focus can be on dollars spent. We understand that. We accept that. But the best way to make a statement is to do what we’ve done often over the last 23 years: (play) baseball in October.”
That’s fine, but it’s ridiculous that this discussion is even taking place. The Red Sox don’t cover themselves with their ticket prices, which are among the highest in the sport. They didn’t cover themselves with their expenses from 2004-2020, when they had 17 consecutive top-five payrolls. And now that the team is back on the rise, they shouldn’t cover themselves with their desire to win.
Make a statement. Try.
(Top photo by John Henry: Maddie Meyer//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
Keynote USA
For the Latest Sports News, Follow Keynote USA Sports on Twitter.