CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs honored Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg by unveiling a statue of him outside Wrigley Field before Sunday’s loss to the New York Mets. The team then did its best defensive imitation of the Gold Glove second baseman, showing the leather on multiple occasions. But he may have taken the tribute too far because it looked too much like some of those terrible Cubs teams of the ’90s that couldn’t score runs and bored the crowd on a regular basis.
After a 5-2 loss to the Mets, the Cubs are now 37-41 on the season, going 4-5 in their nine-game homestand.
“We certainly didn’t gain any ground here or do anything to advance,” manager Craig Counsell said. “It will take more than 4-5, there is no doubt about it. Try to start tomorrow.”
Here are three takeaways as the Cubs continue to search for that elusive hot streak.
Lack of power with men on base.
When the offense has a good game, it almost inevitably means it needs power with runners in scoring position. Take a look at Saturday’s 8-1 win. The Cubs had four extra-base hits and no home runs. Three came with runners on base, and each time the hit scored runs.
On the season, the Cubs have a .148 ISO with runners in scoring position, 18th in baseball. It’s not good enough, but it’s not terrible either. But it’s when you look at what they’ve done since April 27 (a day when they entered eight games over .500 and looked like a strong team) that really makes it obvious. Since then, they are last with an ISO of .108 and runners in scoring position.
On Sunday they had four singles in total until Christopher Morel launched a two-run homer. Power is essential for a consistent offense. Last season, when the offense really got going in the second half, the Cubs were sixth in baseball with a .187 ISO. This season they are 22nd at .140.
Michael Busch answering questions at the beginning
The Cubs acquired Busch in the offseason from the Los Angeles Dodgers hoping to fill a need they’ve had at first base since trading Anthony Rizzo. Despite a hiatus in late April and early May, Busch is proving to be one of the best additions of the Jed Hoyer era.
Among first basemen, Busch is fifth in baseball with 1.6 WAR and fourth with 130 wRC+. He is the only Cubs starter with an OPS over .800 on the season. Aside from a slight blip from April 21 to May 12, where Busch had a wRC+ of 47 and struck out at a 42.1 percent rate, he has been incredibly productive.
Busch’s problems at the time were mainly due to chasing, something he rarely does.
“Part of that stretch was just getting out of the zone,” Busch said. “It’s hard to hit 95 mph two balls over the zone. That goes for everyone. If I can take them away or foul them and get them back in the zone, everything will be fine.”
But there’s also something else that Busch does when he’s not quite right. It’s swinging and missing pitches inside the zone.
The above shows that his extreme drop in performance occurred when he was chasing. But then, as he got better, he was still swinging and missing pitches in the zone. Lately, that has not happened as often and has led to more positive results.
Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly says some swings and misses in the zone are just part of Busch’s game.
“It’s definitely something we monitor,” Kelly said. “If things start to get out of control and he’s not throwing anything, then that’s something we’ll talk about. But we know there will be some changes and failures.”
Why is this happening to Busch?
“Part of this has to do with timing,” Kelly said. “There are times when he catches the ball a little late. Part of the reason he makes really good decisions is because he lets the ball travel. But there are times when those four-seam pitches or those off-speed pitches bother him. It’s part of who he is as a hitter. He benefits you in the swing decision part. But there is also a give and take in some of that.”
For the most part, Busch can handle speed well. He has a .379 wOBA against all fastballs this season, his best against any type of pitch. So even if that’s the only issue in his game as far as zone misses go, he’s doing pretty well overall. The Cubs have a lot of questions on offense right now. Busch is not one of them.
Another weak point of the PCA?
It’s well documented that Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled with fastballs in and above the zone. That was evident Sunday night against the Mets. Crow-Armstrong pursues too much in general. If he were eligible, his 38.7 percent chase rate would be the ninth-highest in baseball.
While fastballs remain an issue, breaking balls are also a real problem for Crow-Armstrong. According to Statcast, he has a 51.2 percent chase rate on breaking balls. Javier Báez leads baseball with 53.1 percent. Crow-Armstrong has a 35 percent swing rate on pitches right up the middle and a 34 percent swing rate on pitches down and in, outside the zone. And this was before Sunday’s game, when these were the breaking balls Crow-Armstrong threw at.
Crow-Armstrong is an elite defender. That’s why he’s on the team. He’s already worth half a win this season despite posting a wRC+ of 54 at the plate. So he is valuable even though he does little on offense. He needs to improve and this experience will probably give him that opportunity. It’s worth looking at what St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn and Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang did last year at the plate and compare it to this season.
Development is carried out at absolutely the highest level, and Crow-Armstrong can, and most likely will, improve as he continues to work. He’s also not the reason this offense is in the bad shape it’s in. He’s here to provide elite defense, which he’s doing, and learn on the job. Others have to produce offensively so Crow-Armstrong’s growing pains don’t hurt as much. They are not doing that.
If the heart of the offense doesn’t improve soon, it won’t matter much to talk about how a struggling Cubs team is still in the thick of the wild card race. Eventually, some team will get hot, like the Mets already have, and start to pull away. Counsell and the Cubs have to hope they are the ones to do it in the coming weeks.
(Michael Busch Photo: David Banks/USA Today)
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