Surprisingly, even as July approaches, the Washington Nationals have given their fans a reason to check the standings every morning. That Tuesday look revealed a tough loss in San Diego the night before (three runs up in the 10th, somehow they fell, 7-6) that prevented the Nationals from overtaking the Padres for the final NL wild card spot. .
The Bottom Line: Trade Hunter Harvey! Now!
That’s not a knee-jerk reaction to Harvey’s botched save Monday night. It’s an assessment of where the Nationals stand as we approach a month away from baseball’s trade deadline: in the playoff picture for now, but with more promising (and realistic) hopes beyond.
Let’s put aside the standings for a second and think about a list of Nationals that make this team visible and provide hope for the future. It looks like CJ Abrams will be a star shortstop, if not this year, then soon. MacKenzie Gore has things at the front of the rotation that he is taking advantage of more consistently. Josiah Gray was an All-Star a year ago and could return to form when he returns from the injured list. Lane Thomas is a fun outfielder with a combination of power and speed that could produce 20+ home runs and 20+ steals per season for years to come.
And at some point, James Wood, who is still at Class AAA Rochester after missing nearly four weeks with a hamstring strain, will join them.
What do these players have in common? They all came to Washington via deadline business deals: Abrams, Gore and Wood on Juan Soto’s 2022 blockbuster; Gray (and starting catcher Keibert Ruiz) in the 2021 franchise trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner; and Thomas in what appeared to be a discard for declining and retiring starter Jon Lester also in 2021.
Applied to 2024, Thomas’ deal is instructive. We’ll get to why shortly. But first, let’s go back to the classification.
Through Monday’s games, the Nationals (38-40) were just 1½ games behind the Padres for that third and final NL wild card spot in what is a deadlocked race as we reach the halfway point of the season. . In fact, nine teams (from the Cardinals three games over .500 to the Cubs and Giants five games under) would appear to have a reasonable chance of competing for the league’s final two playoff spots. (The Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers have comfortable division leads, and the Braves are at the top of the wild-card pile.)
In that kind of mix, it’s difficult for someone like Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo to hang the “open for business” sign that was so obviously required when he made the painful but necessary moves that sent Scherzer, Turner and Soto out of the city. These Nationals are not starting a rebuild. They are in the middle of rebuilding and the ranking would be an indication that they are slightly ahead of schedule.
But the Nationals’ decisions at this deadline shouldn’t be based on the idea that they are slightly ahead of schedule. They should be based on a more realistic schedule, which is that they enter this winter with the combination of a young, talented roster and financial flexibility that makes being a true contender in 2025 a clear possibility.
Yes, the classification says they are there. The reality, however, is that some overperformance (admirable, to be sure, but likely to correct itself) has slightly inflated its results. FanGraphs, for example, has their playoff odds at just 3 percent, ahead of only Colorado and Miami in the National League.
Given all that, moving left fielder Jesse Winker (seventh in the NL in on-base percentage) and reliever Dylan Floro (10th in ERA among NL relievers with at least 20 innings) should seem like a no-brainer because their agreements expire. They were signed to be flipped when the deadline expired. Please turn them over.
Still, the Nationals’ most valuable trade assets would be Thomas, Harvey and fellow reliever Kyle Finnegan. None of those players can be free agents until after the 2025 season. Each could bring one or two more attractive prospects in return.
Wait: Trading three of this team’s best players when a playoff spot is within reach? That can be difficult for a general manager to explain to both a fan base and a clubhouse. If you’re in the race, shouldn’t you add and not subtract?
Not in all cases. Take the Baltimore Orioles, for example. There is no franchise in baseball that would be more fun to be a fan of right now. Yes, their pitching staff is destroyed. Sure, they might not catch the Yankees in the AL East. But their roster is loaded with young, affordable talent, and there’s more on the way: players who will help the Orioles on the field or help General Manager Mike Elias trade in the pieces he needs to plug holes. They are built for 2024 and also for the years to come.
Two summers ago, the Orioles approached the trade deadline in a similar position to the current Nationals: on the fringes of the race, but with a greater chance of fading down the stretch than of roaring into October like a true contender. So the day before the deadline, Elías swallowed hard and traded franchise mainstay first baseman Trey Mancini and star closer Jorge López. The return: six players, two of whom are helping the current Major League club, and three more among the team’s large group of prospects, according to MLB.com.
When Elías made the deals, the Orioles were on the road. He flew out for the last of three games in Texas because he had some explaining to do, both to his clubhouse and to his fan base.
“Obviously, this is not something that we are putting all our chips into and all this work that we have been doing in the organization for the last three and a half or four years until the second half of 2022,” Elías told reporters that day. “I think this is a decade-long window opening. … The most important thing for us is that we prioritize this long window that we believe we have ahead of us among all other considerations.”
At that time, it was difficult. Two years later, she seems smart.
There is a world in which Rizzo is giving a similar speech after the July 30 deadline. He could also point out that the core of the roster that could compete as early as 2025 was built from trades. I might point out that he once converted star closer Matt Capps into Wilson Ramos, who became the team’s starting catcher for six years. I could point out that he turned Lester into Thomas. I might point out that to be deadline buyers in the future, the Nationals need to continue replenishing a system that isn’t as good as it could be.
There is value available at the deadline, not for 2024 but beyond. The Nationals should pursue him. It’s not imperative that they move Harvey, who had held his opponents to a .652 OPS and posted a 2.84 ERA before Monday’s collapse. They don’t need to trade Finnegan, whose 22 saves rank third in baseball, or Thomas, who had 3.1 WAR last season, according to FanGraphs.
But opening that long window even further would be smart. The standings may momentarily indicate that the Nationals are ahead of schedule. Do not look at them. The trade deadline is still more than a month away. Keep the blinders on. I swallowed hard. Chips should come in next summer, not this one.
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