Baseball season is overwhelming. Like one of those insinuations at a Texas steakhouse: Finish the 72-ounce ribeye in one sitting and you’ll get it for free. It’s too much. That’s why 162 games are generally consumed in smaller, more digestible portions. For the series. Per week. Per month.
The Phillies reached the mathematical midpoint of their schedule (not to be confused with the more common usage, meaning everything after the All-Star break) by imploding in the late innings en route to a 7-5 loss in the last place. Marlins before another sold-out crowd Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park.
That’s also a sizeable enough portion to require more than a couple of Big Gulps to swallow. But it is a convenient roadside rest stop to pause and reflect on the lessons learned from what has happened so far and how this informs what may happen before the commissioner delivers that coveted piece of metal at the end of October or early November.
Here are five conclusions:
1. Despite Thursday’s failure, the Phillies are a really good team. They have won in the morning, in the afternoon and at night. They have won in five different time zones. They’ve won wearing their classic red pinstripes, their road grays, their retro blues, and their futuristic black City Connect ensembles.
But they actually won at home. They are 31-13 (.705) in CBP. They are 22-15 (.595) everywhere else.
They currently have the best record in baseball. The Major League standings are something to keep an eye on the rest of the way. Despite their inexplicable inability to win a game twice at home against the Diamondbacks in the National League Championship Series last year, home field advantage is the best advantage they can get if they hope to capture their third world championship in the history of the franchise.
2. That’s why the upcoming games against the Guardians and Yankees loom so large.
In fact, the Phillies are probably tired of hearing how smooth their schedule has been up to this point, but that doesn’t change the fact that it has. Yes, they can only play against whoever appears on the opposing bench and they have already taken care of the matter.
But this is also true. They have played only four teams that would still be playing if the playoffs started today. And that includes the Red Sox, who are definitely on the bubble.
Starting Friday, they will play 28 of their next 50 against teams that would qualify (if you include the Royals, another bubble team at the moment). That would be the Braves, Dodgers, Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers (again), Braves (again), Royals and Braves (once again).
That includes a 12-game bracket from July 26 to Aug. 7 consisting of Cleveland and the Yankees at The Bank, followed by games at Seattle and Los Angeles.
3. They haven’t closed anything yet, not even the National League East. Yes, they are 8 games ahead of the Braves with 81 to play. They are prohibitive favorites to end Atlanta’s streak of six division titles. It would be surprising and catastrophic if they didn’t.
But baseball history is full of amazing cataclysms. Has everyone forgotten that the Phillies were seven games behind the Mets with just 17 games left in 2007 before catching and passing them? Does anyone have a pair of tickets to the Phillies’ 1964 World Series?
Plus, if you weren’t keeping count, that’s 10 more against Atlanta, six of them on the road.
4. Manager Rob Thomson has consistently said he wants nothing more than good health for his roster. Putting Spencer Turnbull on the injured list before a game was one thing. Watching Bryce Harper limp in after grounding out for the final out after Kyle Schwarber had to leave an inning earlier with left groin tightness was a stark reminder of how quickly injuries can change the calculus.
This is a club that has had to endure the loss of shortstop Trea Turner and catcher JT Realmuto for significant stretches. But there is a tipping point, even for the deepest rosters.
5. What the Phillies have accomplished so far is impressive. But it was also based almost exclusively on winning 29 of 35 (.829) between April 15 and May 23. Before that they were 8-8. Since then they have a 16-14 record (.533).
No team can maintain the breakneck pace the Phillies established during those intervening six weeks. And injuries to Trea Turner and JT Realmuto must have taken their toll.
But to go far in the postseason they will need to be better than they have been recently. The good news is that, in reasonably good health, they have shown that they are capable of doing this.
Keynote USA
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