NEW YORK – The New York Mets concluded their homestand Sunday in what has become signature style: Late in the game, they blew another lead. Since the beginning of May, they have led eight innings and lost six times, four more than any other team. After a poor road trip, which raised questions about the depth of their sales at the trade deadline, they played 10 games at Citi Field during a chaotic stretch and finished 3-7.
It’s the first week of June, and sites like FanGraphs (7.6 percent) give the Mets (24-35) less than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Here are some conclusions.
Lack of strength
The Mets don’t have a particular strength. There isn’t a single aspect of the game that they can point to as something capable of leading them to a winning streak. That’s why they haven’t won three games in a row since mid-April.
Before the season, scouts suggested the lineup could be the Mets’ strength. That may still be the case, especially when Francisco Álvarez returns; On the rare good days for the team, he showed himself capable. But the offense has largely performed inconsistently. Even with a couple of high-scoring games during the homestand, they produced a .697 OPS, 13th in the majors over the 10-game stretch, which is decent, but not the kind of thing that routinely bails out to poor pitching and defense.
injuries hurt
Good teams (the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves quickly come to mind) overcome injuries, no matter how big the gap. For the Mets, injuries to Álvarez and Kodai Senga, in addition to absences in the bullpen, aggravated their situation.
Without Senga, the Mets began the season leaning on José Quintana for some stability. Instead, the veteran’s struggles have summed up the pitching staff’s woes during a season gone awry. After lasting just four innings and allowing three runs on Sunday, Quintana, 35, has a 5.17 ERA and averages about five innings per start. His 15.7 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since 2012, his rookie year. The Mets’ rotation has the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.8 percent) and second-highest walk rate (9.9 percent) and the group’s inability to pitch beyond the fifth inning, especially During the first month of the season, he overwhelmed the bullpen.
With Edwin Diaz struggling and now on the injured list and Brooks Raley and Drew Smith (who was activated Sunday) unavailable, the bullpen failed to hold the lead in the end. Whether the Mets turned to Adam Ottavino, Reed Garrett or Jake Diekman didn’t matter; Lately things have rarely gone well at the end of games. Since May 1, the Mets bullpen has produced a 5.01 ERA and -1.0 fWAR; the second worst group in that span is the Colorado Rockies with a fWAR of -0.5. Part of the problem is a regression that was likely due to how much the group was used collectively in April. The other part of the struggle comes from the need to insert players into roles they are not suited for.
Marginal movements, minimal impact.
The Mets moved quickly to acquire Luis Torrens, but what will happen to him once Francisco Álvarez is healthy? (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
The front office sent a healthy message to the roster when they designated catcher Omar Narváez for assignment and acquired Luis Torrens from the Yankees as a replacement. They could have waited for Álvarez to return (he could do so this weekend or shortly after) and simply left Narváez at that time. But they didn’t. With Torrens available, they acted. Essentially, the move showed that they want to improve the frontcourt of their roster and things are not guaranteed on the margins: the Mets still have to make a decision on the backup catcher between Torrens and Tomás Nido when Álvarez returns.
It’s the right way to go, but the sentiment underscores the position the Mets are in; There’s just not much more the front office can do in terms of levers to pull. Not yet, anyway; they made lineup changes, tried different bullpen arms and promoted their top pitching prospect last month (their top position player prospects are either injured or not ready to be called up). Smart margin improvements tend to make a difference for clubs around .500. The Mets have needed more of their best players with day jobs and important roles.
Winds deserved a chance
The Mets made the right decision last week when they gave Mark Vientos the landing strip at third base (José Iglesias may see occasional time there, but most of the action belongs to Vientos). New York decided it was the right time to do so given the combination of Brett Baty’s struggles and the expectation of seeing a host of left-handed pitchers. But Vientos also deserved the opportunity. Vientos has shown power for a long time, but officials always assumed that if he was given a number of full-time plate appearances, he would hit 20-plus home runs. The concern was always what the rest of the numbers would like. However, this season (they have been given a small sample so far), club officials have said they are encouraged by a more mature game plan, preparation and approach to each at-bat, which is helping a Winds to make more contact against balls that are not fast.
Something to hold on to
In a league where six teams advance to the playoffs and only five have a winning record, the Mets remain five games out of a spot, despite their disappointing play. It’s the only thing that saves them from now starting the doomsday countdown to the deadline. The Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets’ weekend opponent, showed last year that it is possible to sneak into the playoffs and win the pennant.
But seven teams are ahead of the Mets in the fight for the final wild card spot. The Mets are closer to being the worst team in the league (the Miami Marlins have three fewer wins, four more losses) than they are to being the sixth best. For the Mets, things need to change quickly on a serious level to change the trade deadline conversation. Simply proving they are capable of making the playoffs may not be enough to thwart at least some level of sales.
“The expanded playoffs certainly change what it takes to get in,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said. “How you change the way you look at a specific deadline depends a lot on the situation in terms of the team. The goal, obviously, is not just to enter. You want to get in and go, run and play well into October. So ultimately the assessment is: do we have a team that we think is capable of doing that?
(Top Winds photo: Sarah Stier//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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