There comes a point in the portal season when ambition takes a backseat to pragmatism.
In Missouri’s case, it applies to the Tigers’ search for internal help.
When the portal opened on March 18, the Tigers’ intentions were no mystery: act quickly and bring Tarris Reed home. Instead, a quick hit stalled and the Michigan transfer ultimately opted to play for the reigning national champion in UConn. And once the dead period was lifted in mid-April, MU had to reconfigure this section of its recruiting board.
MU also found an elemental truth for this time of year. Top-tier centers are scarce, impose high NIL demands and bide time until the right supply arrives. Meanwhile, quality backup options are disappearing from shelves. That departure began the same week that coach Dennis Gates and his staff secured pledges from guard Tony Perkins, guard Marques Warrick and hybrid Mark Mitchell.
Those additions and wing Jacob Crews reduced the program’s working capital. All in all, MU found itself looking for a presence at the position that could check several boxes:
- Fight against the greats who return to the basket
- Close possessions with rebounds
- Finish consistently around the edge.
On May 1, when the portal closed, the decrease in options made it easier to define the dashboard. Ultimately, the answer came from within the SEC and in the form of South Carolina’s Josh Gray, who is the Tigers’ fifth commitment and most likely rounded out the program’s transfer class.
- Of: Brooklyn, New York
- Previous school: South Carolina
- Position: Mail
- Height/Weight: 6-11/255
- 247 Composite classification: NR
- On3 Sports Classification: 89.00 (Transfer)
- Evan Miya predicted BPR: 2.64 (no. 254)
- Offers to highlight:
This is a condensed version of the portal’s target profile that was published on April 29 to RockM+ Subscribers.
Coming out of Putnam Science Academy, Gray’s offensive game was considered a work in progress. But what he could do was run down the court, crash the boards and defend. However, limited playing time at LSU sent Gray to the portal after his freshman season, and he has been at South Carolina ever since.
And when you evaluate his record against high-quality opponents, it’s about what we’d expect from a big-time development who has played for three coaches.
Josh Gray | Publish | South Carolina | vs. KenPom Top-100 Teams
Season | G.M. | deputy | PTS | REB | AST | GF% | 3FG% | FOOT% | STL | BLACK | TOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | G.M. | deputy | PTS | REB | AST | GF% | 3FG% | FOOT% | STL | BLACK | TOV |
2023-24 | 18 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.553 | N/A | 0.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
2022-23 | fifteen | 18.1 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 0.541 | 0 | 0.514 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
2021-22 | 12 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.56 | 0 | 0.211 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
2020-21 | 7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0 | 0.286 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Career | 52 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.544 | 0 | 0.429 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Source: KenPom.com
Gray’s production and the scope of his role are also unlikely to change dramatically with a move to MU. And it’s not a situation to worry about either. The Tigers have already added a quartet of transfers capable of boosting an offense that floundered last season. Anything Gray contributes is a surplus.
His primary source of touches isn’t all that surprising. Gray can remain as a safety valve in the mate’s place. According to Synergy Sports, he averaged 1,083 points on basket cuts last season.
Despite his stocky frame, Gray is agile and light on his feet, adjusting to slide into the creases and gaps around the cup after a driver draws in two defenders. He has a reliable pair of hands to make tough catches in traffic. He also has no qualms about going straight to the rim to finish a play.
Averaging an eye-popping 1,391 points on the posts probably piqued the Tigers’ interest. Gray’s preferences are not difficult to discern. Gray is at his best when he settles into the left block. Any attempt to overtake him in three quarters triggers a step towards the baseline and play over his left shoulder. The guards or the big skinny players who play up front give pins to the posts.
Gates’ offense hardly relies on post-ups, but there are situations where simplicity prevails. Early in a possession, Gray could generate a favorable crossover. So he throws the ball to the block and let him work it to within two feet. And as possession develops, the flow of a set could present an empty corner, an opportunity for Gray to seal the defender away from him, and no close help to hit the ball. Feed him.
If we can outline these preferences, they won’t be a mystery to opposing coaches, who will likely send more tough double teams from the baseline. That will require Gray to diversify his post moves or become more comfortable passing reads off the block.
Meanwhile, Gray finds occasional success as a bettor, especially after setting a ball screen in the slot. (It only ranked in the 9th percentile nationally in efficiency, according to Synergy.) The most important observation here is that Gray is neither rigid nor clumsy. Given his build, his footwork, balance and short-area quickness are better than expected. Additionally, coach Lamont Paris trusted him enough to handle chase actions, handoffs and some short throws.
Tie those threads a little tighter and the Tigers could have a comfortable connector that works from the perimeter to the interior. If that can be accomplished, coach Dennis Gates could justify playing Gray for longer stretches and still use some base sets from Princeton’s section of the playbook.
Gray absorbing more minutes also creates a buffer for freshman Peyton Marshall to acclimate to.
On the defensive end, Gray’s value is in the eye of the beholder.
As a reserve, he has never accumulated a large number of defensive possessions for us to evaluate, and only a third of them involved defending a post. The sample size is modest and Gray’s efficiency defending the block was around the Division I median.
For the sake of completeness, here’s a mix of him guarding bigs around the paint, blocking some shooters, and occasionally playing in isolation.
Gray’s strength as a post defender comes from winning the battle for space. Strong post defense starts by forcing a big player to set up farther from the rim, and Gray excels at the task.
He is strong enough to absorb a shoulder to the chest, but maintains his balance and uses quick feet to thwart any counterattacks. While he is not a quick jumper, Gray’s time on the court is enough to use his length effectively to contest shots after making angles difficult, producing a 6.3 block percentage last season. After all, Gray only allowed 0.63 points per shot around the glass. That ranked in the 95th percentile among D1 players, according to Synergy.
By contrast, Gray allowed 1.20 points on jumpers. I doubt you’ll be surprised. In the film, those looks are the byproduct of poor shifts, usually a stretch of four holding down the weakside corner or repositioning when Gray pivots to help elsewhere.
What caught the attention of Gates and his staff, however, was how Gray chased down nearly 24 percent of missed shots on the defensive end. If he had averaged 16 minutes per game last season, his defensive rebounding rate would have ranked second in the SEC.
Some splashier names are still on the market, but many are going through the Draft process and using the portal as insurance. If they go back to college, they will easily get high NIL offers. So MU, which did its job early on in the portal, looked at using more time to court players who would expect resources the program might not have at its disposal.
MU tried that waiting game last year and finally landed Connor Vanover in early June, an addition built around a streaky jumper as a swing skill. While Vanover provided some momentum on defense, his shooting game regressed, leaving MU making direct switches between offense and defense.
This year, Gray represents a smart choice and perhaps a hard-learned lesson. He excels at what MU needs. That production should be easy to project. Additionally, Gray’s presence gives Peyton Marshall a balanced partner in drills and practice, allowing MU to balance immediate returns with long-term development. It’s also insurance if Marshall is sidelined by injury.
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