Mark Spector June 9, 2024, 17:20
SUNRISE, Fla. — In his first run to a Stanley Cup Final as head coach, Kris Knoblauch will be remembered for having the courage to tweak his lineup and for pushing the right buttons at an impressive rate.
There’s just one problem: They’re now in a Stanley Cup Final, losing 1-0. The most difficult decisions are still ahead.
The Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci pairing landed in Knoblauch’s lap the day between Games 1 and 2 like a Black Friday treadmill returned to Canadian Tire. “Fix this,” Oilers fans say of a pairing that hasn’t worked out so well this season, disbanded, but to which Knoblauch returned in Game 1.
Of course, they were on the ice for both of Saturday’s five-on-five goals, the second a lost puck battle by Ceci and a center pass that traveled through Nurse’s legs on the way to the scorer. .
“Go through my wickets,” Nurse said after the game. “I have to get a part.”
Up front, it’s time to wonder where (and if) Evander Kane should play, after a demotion in play from Leon Draisaitl’s wing in Game 1, and an eight-game goalless drought in which he has contributed only a solitary assistance.
Let’s start with the Nurse-Ceci couple.
“I watched the game last night and they scored two goals against me,” Knoblauch began in his Sunday press conference. “Both were involved in two scoring opportunities against each other and both conceded goals. I guess if you look at the goals scored for and against, it’s not favorable.
“The expected goals for and against do not show the same picture at all. Completely different.”
According to Sportlogiq, this pairing was on the positive side of the expected goals count in the first game, despite their -2 night. In the 2024 playoffs, the Nurse-Ceci pairing has an expected goals percentage of 44.6 percent, according to Sportlogiq.
Considering they rarely play the McDavid line, that number isn’t too bad. But “not so bad” doesn’t win you a Cup.
The Oilers need these two veterans to not only stay afloat, but to be good.
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Sure, this pairing has had an extremely unfortunate playoffs, filled with bad rebounds, careless moments by forwards, and seemingly being on the ice for every not-so-great goal allowed by goalie Stuart Skinner.
But at some point, a bad game creates bad luck.
Show me a goalie who always makes bad rebounds and I’ll show you a bad goalie. Show me a defensive couple who is enduring a prolonged period of bad luck, and I’ll show you a couple who is trying to figure out how to eliminate that tendency and just can’t.
“We’re always looking for what’s best for those two players,” Knoblauch said. “But also what is best for our six defenders. As a coaching staff we always have to make those decisions. (It’s not) easy and sometimes you have to give a little to get something more.
“As for the matchup of the next game, yes, we have not made any decision yet.”
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Does Knoblauch activate Vincent Desharnais, who took a seat in the press box for Game 4 of the Dallas series? Move Philip Broberg alongside Nurse and pair Brett Kulak with Ceci?
If Knoblauch wants Desharnais back in his lineup, who comes out? It won’t be Broberg, the way he’s playing. That leaves Ceci, who has missed just three regular-season games, as a potentially bold move for the coach to make.
Stay tuned for Monday morning’s skate on that front.
Meanwhile, Kane seems like the journey through these playoffs with his sports hernia is becoming too much.
He was credited with three hits in Game 1 and will always bring a physical and intimidating game that we like. But he hasn’t been able to practice in weeks and it shows in his play with the puck.
The chances of Kane’s botched clearance costing his team a goal are starting to get greater than the chances of him scoring one himself, leaving Knoblauch wondering if Kane simply doesn’t have what the team needs from him in this stage.
“He’s obviously not the Evander Kane from a couple of years ago, or even the one from when I came here (in November),” Knoblauch admitted. “He was having a pretty good season and obviously he had to take some time off due to some injuries and maintenance days. Yes, it’s unfortunate for any player, every time you’re struggling with something, it detracts from your game.”
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Knoblauch’s problem here is who comes in?
Is a smaller forward like Derek Ryan the answer? Probably not.
Maybe Sam Carrick comes in to center the fourth line and Ryan McLeod comes up to play left wing on Leon Draisaitl’s line?
Kane has given what he has to give. But at some point it’s about the team, not the teammate.
“I don’t think we would be where we are today,” Knoblauch said. “We wouldn’t be in the Stanley Cup Final if Evander hadn’t played during the playoffs.”
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