• Georgia’s Carson Beck: The Georgia signal-caller was the fourth-most valuable quarterback last year, behind 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (1.44), Michael Penix Jr. (1.35) and Jayden Daniels (1.28), but that was not fulfilled. There’s already been enough talk about the Bulldogs missing the playoffs.
• Texas’ Quinn Ewers: Ewers earned an impressive 85.6 passing grade last season, so talent is not in question. He also seems to play better when the lights are brighter: Two of his highest-rated games were against Alabama (90.3) and Washington (81.8), where he combined for six big throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The era of the 12-team College Football Playoff is almost here.
We’re just a few months away from the start of the 2024 college football season, so it’s time to look at some of the top Heisman candidates heading into the campaign.
Like last year, the summer will be filled with talk about which quarterbacks could win this award. So, here are five players who I think have the best chances of taking home the hardware in December.
Carson Beck, Georgia
Fanduel Betting Odds: +750
Metric | Number | Range |
PFF grade | 91.5 | 5th |
WAA | 1.19 | 4th |
Comp. tight. % | 80.6% | 3rd |
Yards per attempt | 9.4 | eighth |
% big launch | 3.8% | T-107 |
% of game worth billing | 23% | T-23 |
Beck is widely considered the best quarterback in college football heading into the 2024 season. The Georgia signal-caller was the fourth-most valuable quarterback last year, behind 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (1.44) , Michael Penix Jr. (1.35) and Jayden Daniels (1.28), but it wasn’t talked about enough because the Bulldogs missed the playoffs.
His play last year put him in the conversation for QB1 in next year’s draft, as he earned a 90.8 passing grade which is good for second among returning quarterbacks.
Beck started off slowly, but never looked back once he picked up speed. His 3,949 passing yards and adjusted 80.1% completion percentage ranked third among quarterbacks last year, while his 91.5 overall rating ranked fifth.
PFF grades, advanced stats and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Quinn Ewers, Texas
Fanduel Betting Odds: +900
Metric | Number | Range |
PFF grade | 86.8 | 19 |
WAA | 0.82 | 10th |
Comp. tight. % | 76.3% | 24 |
Yards per attempt | 8.8 | T-19 |
Big Launch % | 3.9% | T-101 |
% of game worth billing | 1.7% | 6th |
After a tough 2022 campaign, Quinn Ewers bounced back in 2023 and showed everyone why he was the top recruit in the country in 2021. Now it’s time for him to put it all together and show more consistency over an entire season.
Ewers earned an impressive 85.6 passing grade last season, so talent is not in question. He also seems to play better when the lights are brighter: Two of his highest-rated games were against Alabama (90.3) and Washington (81.8), where he combined for six big throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
These types of things are important for quarterbacks. It is important to find a player like that in the center, who takes advantage of big moments and does not falter under pressure.
Conversely, Ewers had his two lowest-rated games against Wyoming (53.6) and Rice (66.1). If he can clean up his game and his inconsistent decision-making, especially against inferior opponents, he will undoubtedly find himself at the Heisman ceremony in 2024.
PFF grades, advanced stats and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
Fanduel Betting Odds: +1000
Metric | Number | Range |
PFF grade | 91.9 | T-3rd |
WAA | 1.01 | 5th |
Comp. tight. % | 78.8 | nineth |
Yards per attempt | 9.5 | T-6th |
Big Launch % | 5.2 | T-46 |
% of game worth billing | 2.6 | T-35 |
Gabriel has been the beneficiary of some very QB-friendly systems over the past few seasons. This doesn’t mean it’s bad; he’s just played in very good situations behind excellent players.
Gabriel isn’t cannon by any means, but he’s as accurate as a college quarterback can be. Over the past two years, he ranks 10th among the nation’s quarterbacks in accuracy percentage.
Dillon Gabriel’s passing map, which can be found at PFF Premium Stats.
Gabriel has made the most of it and perfected the system everywhere he’s gone, and he’ll likely do the same once again at Oregon in Dan Lanning’s offense, which ranked second in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play last year.
In his sixth and final season of college football, expect another big statistical year from the Ducks’ new quarterback.
PFF grades, advanced stats and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Fanduel Betting Odds: +1500
Metric | Number | Range |
PFF grade | 88.7 | 14 |
WAA | 0.66 | 14 |
Comp. tight. % | 73.0 | T-56 |
Yards per attempt | 10.0 | 4th |
Big Launch % | 9.1 | 2nd |
% of game worth billing | 2.8 | T-44 |
There may not be a more polarizing quarterback in college football. In terms of NFL projection, Milroe might also have the most to gain of all the big names.
A year ago, few people would have believed in Milroe’s potential as a passer. Fast forward to now, the comparisons to Lamar Jackson seem a little more valid, given his similar arm strength and athleticism.
The Alabama quarterback finished the 2023 season with a passing grade of 78.1 and a rushing grade of 85.3. There may not be a better dual-threat QB in college football, but Milroe has to learn to become more comfortable in the pocket if he truly wants to succeed at the next level.
Jalen Milroe’s percentile falls into the stable metrics of quarterback play.
We saw Milroe improve greatly last season, raising his passing grade from 30.3 in 2022 to 78.1 in 2023. But he still struggled in the last two games against Georgia and Michigan, where he earned a rating of 50 and turned the ball over five times.
Although Nick Saban just retired, there is one silver lining for Milroe: He now has Kalen Deboer, an offensive quarterback mastermind, coaching him.
PFF grades, advanced stats and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
Fanduel Betting Odds: +2000
Metric | Number | Range |
PFF grade | 77.5 | 59th |
WAA | 0.03 | 86th |
Comp. tight. % | 70.2 | T-90 |
Yards per attempt | 6.6 | T-119 |
Big Launch % | 2.2 | 152 |
% of game worth billing | 2.8 | T-44 |
The biggest hidden candidate on this list is incoming Fighting Irish transfer from Duke, Riley Leonard.
While scouts may not be as high on him after a disappointing 2023 season that was cut short by injury, he still has great potential as a big, strong-armed quarterback with great movement skills.
Now is the perfect time for Leonard to rebuild his draft stock. He’ll also be in a great position to do so, playing with a much better offensive line and better receivers on the outside, such as Jordan Faison and tight end Mitchell Evans, who both earned receiving grades above 83.0 in 2023.
We all know how Leonard can affect the running game, as he averaged 7.3 yards per carry last fall. His 86.5 career grade was second only to last year’s Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.
However, his biggest impact will have to come as a passer if he is serious about playing quarterback at the next level and returning the Irish to glory. Leonard threw the ball just 167 times on 201 pitches last season. We’ll certainly need to see him express it more if he wants to win the Heisman.
PFF grades, advanced stats and more: Available in PFF Premium Stats
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