Age has always been a complicated topic when it comes to the NBA Draft. Youth is seen as a sign of potential and growth. Players selected at the top of the draft tend to be among the youngest; His talents were so visible at a young age that they could come to light after just one year of college.
But the 2024 NBA Draft, already the most fun in about a decade, could cause one more problem for NBA teams: What are they going to do with all those older players?
This year, teams may be presented with that question more than they would like. Six players age 22 or older appear to have a decent chance of cracking the top 20 picks (they’re in the top 30 of The Athletic’s latest big board), although in a draft as murky as this one, it’s hard to be sure.
Tennessee wing Dalton Knecht could be in the top 10. Providence guard Devin Carter just had an impressive junior year with some solid testing at the Draft Combine. Purdue center Zach Edey is one of the most interesting players in the draft and is expected to be a marginal lottery pick. Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek, Colorado forward Tristan da Silva and Creighton wing Baylor Scheierman are projected first-round picks who could land higher than expected on draft night.
That will again bring to the forefront an important question as teams make their decisions: Does age matter in the draft?
Players who have been drafted this high at age 22 or older have, for the most part, not had productive NBA careers. There have been 30 players who were at least 22 years old on draft day selected over the last 15 years. Of those, about three have become reliable entry-level players (Buddy Hield, Cam Johnson and Kelly Olynyk). Taurean Prince has consistently been a rotation player throughout his career. Corey Kispert, Obi Toppin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. appear to be on track to do so. The rest is a mix of things.
The 20 best draft picks since 2008
PLAYER | Age (years.days) | Choose: draft year | Games | MPG | PPG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
24,046 | 13 — 2021 | 160 | 19.7 | 8.2 | |
23,274 | |||||
23,240 | 13 – 2009 | 428 | 16.9 | 6.7 | |
23,194 | 6th — 2016 | 632 | 29 | 15.9 | |
23,133 | 15 – 2014 | 107 | 13.1 | 4 | |
23,114 | 11 – 2019 | 283 | 25.5 | 11.7 | |
23,091 | |||||
23,068 | |||||
23,065 | 20 – 2015 | 508 | 20.7 | 7 | |
23,042 | |||||
23,041 | 6th – 2010 | 384 | 14.8 | 3.5 | |
22,360 | 13 – 2008 | 481 | 22 | 6.8 | |
22,354 | 4th – 2010 | 609 | 22.1 | 7 | |
22,326 | 9 – 2021 | 227 | 20.4 | 7.4 | |
22,264 | 19 – 2015 | 279 | 17.9 | 6.1 | |
22,258 | 8th — 2020 | 283 | 16.6 | 7.9 | |
22,225 | 14 — 2016 | 256 | 18.8 | 7 | |
22,208 | 19 – 2012 | 285 | 14.3 | 6 | |
22,180 | 11 – 2014 | 655 | 20.2 | 8.9 | |
22,168 | 17 – 2012 | 414 | 17.5 | 6.9 | |
22,148 | 15 — 2021 | 231 | 25.8 | 10.9 | |
22,135 | 2nd — 2009 | 224 | 10.5 | 2.2 | |
22,131 | 16 – 2009 | 774 | 20.1 | 7.5 | |
22,124 | 18 — 2023 | 75 | 28.2 | 11.9 | |
22,123 | 10 – 2011 | 241 | 13.3 | 6 | |
22,113 | 20 — 2019 | 332 | twenty-one | 4.8 | |
22,103 | 5th — 2016 | 333 | 23.2 | 7.9 | |
22,100 | |||||
22,099 | 12 – 2016 | 502 | 24.4 | 10.1 | |
22,092 | 15 — 2017 | 280 | 17.5 | 6 | |
22,087 | 9 – 2015 | 413 | 19.8 | 8.8 | |
22,075 | 13 – 2013 | 756 | 22.6 | 10.3 | |
22,064 | 14 — 2022 | 137 | 20.8 | 6.7 | |
22,043 | |||||
22,020 | 20 – 2009 | 267 | 14.6 | 4.3 | |
22,003 | 11 – 2009 | 153 | 19.1 | 7.1 |
The 2024 draft class, however, comes with certain requirements that were not applied in previous years. It is older for several reasons. Some players were in college for the 2020-21 COVID season, which wreaked havoc on college basketball and slowed development as schools had to work through health and safety restrictions and court time management. The NCAA granted an extra year of college eligibility because of that year.
Other players may have stayed in school longer because of the money they can earn with NIL, which hadn’t even been a consideration until the summer of 2021. Coincidentally, the number of players declaring early has decreased each draft from 2021.
This year’s draft will be an interesting case study. Is age still as important to teams when making a choice? And does age affect a prospect’s success if external factors like additional eligibility and NIL put them in the NBA later in life?
Since the playoffs are still ongoing, only the 27 teams not yet playing have gone completely into draft mode, but that hasn’t stopped some of the rotation. This week came an interesting note from Shams Charania of The Athletic. He reported that the Phoenix Suns are considering Bronny James with their 22nd pick. If James is selected there (appropriate qualifiers are added and implied here), that could be one of the most unconventional first-round picks in recent memory.
No, not because he’s Bronny James. But because of his current position approaching the draft. Say what you will about groupthink and media mock drafts and evaluations, but teams don’t stray too far from that in the first round.
Right now, Bronny James is the No. 57 prospect on Rookie Scale’s consensus NBA draft board. If he is ranked 22nd, that would mean the Suns placed him 35 spots ahead of their consensus ranking.
That would be the biggest difference between draft position and consensus ranking over the last five years. The Memphis Grizzlies took Santi Aldama at No. 30 in 2021 when he was No. 54 on the consensus board and David Roddy at No. 23 in 2022 when he was No. 45. The New York Knicks took Immanuel Quickley at No. 25th place in 2020, when it was 48th on the consensus board.
Even if James is taken 30th overall in the first round, he would still be the most outlier first-round pick since 2020 compared to the consensus board.
But that is also from now on. The draft is still about another month away and it’s plausible that James could move up in the public boards, and therefore the consensus board, and make this point less pronounced.
The new, more restrictive CBA rules go into effect this summer (get your refresher here) and it’s been interesting to hear some top league executives lament the difficulties of building their teams under one set of rules and now having to operate under more punitive rules. A team to watch closely will be the Denver Nuggets.
Denver entered the luxury tax this season, but it was only the first time in more than a decade. Next season will be another matter. Not only are the Nuggets in the tax for the 2024-25 season, but they are projected to be above the second apron if the salary cap is $141 million as currently projected.
Obviously, that raises some issues for the franchise, and those were well expressed earlier this month by team president Josh Kroenke, son of franchise owner Stan Kroenke.
“The core of this team came together under a different collective bargaining agreement, we drafted it, we developed it and we built this team under a different set of rules,” Kroenke told reporters. “Those rules have changed on the fly. Last summer, it wasn’t as relevant as it will be this summer… There will be some limitations with the new collective bargaining agreement and the new rules that we will have to be very aware of and we will have to plan accordingly. “They make it difficult to reorganize a championship roster on the fly.”
If that didn’t seem like a commitment to move to the second platform if necessary, that’s because it wasn’t. Kroenke had more opportunities to do so later during the Nuggets’ end-of-season press conference, and he didn’t have one then either.
General manager Calvin Booth was asked if the Nuggets would go through the second deck to retain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and said the team would like to bring him back. Caldwell-Pope has a $15.4 million player option for next season and could likely earn more on the open market if he exercises it.
“We spent a lot of time looking at the second platform and everything,” Booth said. “For me, personally, it’s winning a championship, one. Second, we have to look at the overall financial picture. And three, second apron. I know the second platform is daunting and there are all kinds of restrictions, but I don’t think it’s first on our priority list. KCP has been a great addition in recent years. We would love to have you back. “We’re going to take a hard look at what that looks like.”
Still, Kroenke announced a championship-or-bust window for the Nuggets two years ago and said he remains tied to that prospect. But he did express some discomfort about the second apron. In a few months we will see how Denver rectifies those two beliefs and what path it takes.
“When you talk about some of the penalties that the league has imposed on the fly related to the second platform, things of that nature, it is very onerous when you start talking about the possibility of giving up future draft picks if you get caught in a certain situation. place,” Kroenke said. “Some organizations will be happy to pay what they can to have the potential to win a championship; When you start talking about draft picks is when you get people’s attention pretty quickly. Last summer, it wasn’t something that was as prevalent going into this summer, but I said it two years ago in a press conference when I was doing it on my own and I don’t know how many people took me seriously at the time because we hadn’t really done it. won, but when Nikola Jokić is in your squad, you try. You have the best player in the world and you have the responsibility before him and the group to try to achieve it.
“For Nikola, for Jamal (Murray), for Michael (Porter Jr.), for all of us who have grown and developed over time, I think it is our responsibility. Obviously, there are different conversations that come up when you start talking about some of the sanctions that we’re talking about. Let’s be aggressive. “We continue to think that we have one of the best teams in the league and with a good chance of winning it next year.”
(Bronny James top photo: Jeff Haynes/NBAE via /Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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