The PGA Tour is headed to Jack’s home for the 2024 edition of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. The Memorial is considered one of the most prestigious non-major tournaments of the PGA Tour season and, for the second year in a row, the tournament will be a “Signature Event.”
Muirfield Village Golf Club is a 7,571-yard par 72 located in Dublin, Ohio, featuring Bentgrass greens. A Jack Nicklaus design, the course was built in 1974 and redesigned by Nicklaus in 2020. The course can play extremely difficult due to its long, rough and ultra-fast greens.
The Memorial Tournament will host 80 golfers this week, up from 120 last year. The top 50 and ties will make the cut. Being a designated event, the field is, as expected, packed and will feature most of the Tour’s biggest stars. All eligible players have committed to the event, in addition to exemptions from sponsors Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker and Billy Horschel.
Previous winners of the memorial tournament
- 2023: Viktor Hovland (-7)
- 2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
- 2021: Patricio Cantlay (-13)
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
- 2019: Patricio Cantlay (-19)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
- 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
- 2016: William McGirt (-15)
Key Statistics for Muirfield Village
Let’s take a look at five key Muirfield Village metrics to determine which golfers have the best ratings in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Focus
All Jack Nicklaus designs have one thing in common: they reward the best iron players on Tour. In designing Muirfield Village, Jack created a second shot golf course that greatly benefited golfers who could really improve their approach shots. With this in mind, is anyone surprised that Tiger Woods has won this event five times?
Strokes Gained: Focus on the last 24 rounds
2. Strokes Gained: Ball Stroke
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking includes approach, but if there is any week to overemphasize Strokes Gained: Approach, this is the week. The stat also incorporates strokes gained: off the tee, which will be important considering Muirfield Village’s rough can be extremely penal.
Strokes Gained: Ball strikes in the last 24 rounds
3. % good management
Driving the ball well will be an important factor. Bombing off the tee isn’t a requirement at Muirfield Village, but distance always helps. The rough can get very long and golfers who can’t put the ball in the fairway will be out of the competition quickly. This week’s goals should be balanced and consistent drivers of the golf ball.
Good momentum percentage in the last 24 rounds
4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass – Fast)
The Bentgrass greens at Muirfield are incredibly fast. Whoever can master these difficult putting surfaces will have a great advantage at Jack’s house.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass+Fast) in the last 24 rounds:
5. Strokes Earned: Nicklaus Designs
We often see similar leaderboards when events are organized on courses designed by Jack Nicklaus. This week’s model will seek to incorporate those golfers.
Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs (per round, minimum 4 rounds) in the last 36 rounds:
6. Course history
We often see similar leaderboards when events are organized on courses designed by Jack Nicklaus. This week’s model will seek to incorporate those golfers.
Course History (strokes gained: total (per round, minimum 4 rounds) in the last 36 rounds:
Memorial Tournament Model Rankings
Below I have compiled overall model ratings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above: SG: Focus (27%), SG: BS (18%), Good Driving % (16%), SG: Putting Bentgrass . Quick (13%), Course History (13%), and SG: Total Nicklaus Designs (13%).
2024 Commemorative Tournament Selections
Collin Morikawa +1800 (Fans)
Collin Morikawa has consistently appeared at major events in recent months. He finished tied for third at The Masters, ninth at the RBC Heritage, tied for 16th at the Wells Fargo Championship and tied for fourth at the PGA Championship. He also finished fourth in his most recent start in the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Iron play is always a strong indicator of the trend of Morikawa’s game, and his Strokes Gained – Approach numbers have seen a recent increase. The two-time Major champion has gained an average of 4.0 approach strokes in his last two starts, which although not as good as his maximum approach numbers, is a significant improvement over last year. .
Morikawa has played great golf at Muirfield Village throughout his career. He won the Workday Charity Open in 2020 and lost in a playoff at The Memorial Tournament in 2021. His two most recent starts in the field ended in a withdrawal and a missed cut, but his current form is much better than in last. last seasons arriving at the event.
In addition to strong iron play, the ability to keep the ball in the fairway will be a huge advantage for what I anticipate will be a relatively difficult Memorial Tournament. Morikawa has gained strokes off the tee in eight consecutive starts, including 3.8 strokes at the PGA Championship and 4.0 strokes at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The American has been fantastic on Nicklaus Courses since bursting onto the PGA Tour scene, and that was evident again at Valhalla last month. In his last 36 rounds, Collin ranks third in strokes gained: total in Nicklaus layouts. He also ranked first in the field in good handle percentage, which will be key this week.
It’s been a while since the 27-year-old won a major event on Tour, but that could well change this week at Jack’s home.
Justin Thomas +2500 (BetMGM)
Justin Thomas is winless in his last 43 professional starts, dating back to the 2022 PGA Championship. For a player with 17 professional victories and in the prime of his career, that’s a long time.
In addition to being “due,” Thomas has shown signs that he is almost completely behind his two-year skid. He has four top-ten finishes this season, three of them in a “signature” event or a major. Most recently, he finished tied for fifth at the RBC Heritage, tied for 21st at the Wells Fargo Championship and tied for eighth at the PGA Championship.
JT has loved Nicklaus’ designs throughout his career. He finished second at the 2020 Workday at Muirfield Village, losing in a jump-off to Collin Morikawa. In his last 30 rounds in the field, he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total.
In addition to the obvious course adjustment, Thomas’ ball-striking numbers have come to life lately. He scored 4.1 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship along with 4.6 strokes off the tee. Valhalla is another Jack Nicklaus design, so it’s encouraging to see that’s where he arguably had his best ball-striking week of the season. The key for Thomas will be keeping the ball in the fairways this week and he has improved on his performance in SG:OTT in four consecutive starts.
Thomas is finally fit and ready to return to the winner’s circle at Muirfield Village.
Byeong Hun An +5000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun An is playing the best golf of his career. This season, the 32-year-old finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters, T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and third at the Wells Fargo Championship.
The South Korean’s ball striking has been fantastic this year. He has gained strokes both off the tee and approach in six consecutive events. Even now he will return to a course in which he has been very successful. In 2018, he lost in a tiebreaker to a rising superstar named Bryson DeChambeau. Ben has five top-25 finishes in eight starts at the course. The few times he missed the cut were in 2020 and 2021, when he was really struggling with his game.
An has had some tough times lately and I think we should stay with him for another week.
Corey Conners +6000 (DraftKings)
Corey Conners is absolutely stripping the ball right now. Over his last 24 rounds, the Canadian ranks second in strokes gained: approach, fifth in strokes gained: ball struck and 22nd in good drive percentage.
At last week’s Canadian Open, Conners ranked fourth for the week in focus and finished sixth. In his two previous starts, Conners ranked second in Strokes Gained – Approach at the Wells Fargo Championship and fourth at the PGA Championship. There are very few players on the planet currently hotter with their irons than Corey Conners.
Conners has a strong history in Muirfield Village with mixed results. His best finish came in 2022, when he finished T13 and also finished T22 in 2020. While putting is typically Conners’ biggest weakness, he gained strokes on the greens in three of his six starts in the course and ranks 30th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass on fast, so there’s hope the 32-year-old can hit field average this week.
Conners’ ability to hit fairways and dial his center irons may propel him to the top of the leaderboard this week in a field that favors forwards.
Will Zalatoris +8000 (DraftKings)
I’m not entirely sure if Will Zalatoris is completely healthy given his recent struggles, but there are enough positive signs for a player of his talent in this issue.
Zalatoris attacked Friday in his most recent start at the PGA Championship, allowing him to sneak past the cut line. During the week, he gained 3.56 strokes on approach and won on approach in nine of his last ten starts.
Although he has struggled at times, Zalatoris is still performing well in big events this year. He finished tied for ninth at the Masters, tied for fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied for second at the Genesis Invitational.
If Zalatoris is feeling fit, Muirfield Village is the perfect course to showcase his strengths. He is one of the best iron players in the world and has already finished 5th in his last start on the course (2022).
This is a low buying opportunity for a world class player who has earning equity.
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