Georgia, the preseason number one according to most media outlets, was ranked number one in KeynoteUSA’s preseason FPI for the 2024 college football season. The updated FPI restores the strength of the programming rankings. Georgia’s strength of schedule ranked No. 3 in the country and in the SEC. Heading into Week 1 of the 2023 season, Georgia’s schedule ranked 31st overall and last in the conference. In 2022, Georgia’s schedule ranked 23rd overall and 13th in the SEC, ahead only Kentucky (29) at the conference. As of 2021, Georgia’s schedule was ranked No. 10 in the country and No. 6 in the SEC.
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Florida ranks No. 1 on the list, followed by Mississippi State at No. 2. Following the Dawgs is Kentucky at No. 4, followed by Chestnut, which is ranked No. 5 for the second year in a row. The SEC is in the top eight, with Alabama in number 6, Oklahoma in number 7, and Tennessee at number 8. Georgia Tech is the only non-SEC team in the top 10, with the Yellow Jackets at No. 9 ahead of Texas.
KeynoteUSA’s release of its schedule strength rating is based on the preseason Football Power Index (FPI), where the Dawgs were ranked No. 1 on the list.
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the short version is that the factors used in the preseason model include:
Team performance over the past four seasons (more emphasis on last season)
Returning starters at quarterback, overall offense and defense
If a team has a returning head coach
Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons
The key thing to remember with FPI is that it predicts team strength.
The FPI puts the odds of Georgia winning six games at 99.4%. Georgia has the second-best projected win total and its 10.8% chance of winning all of its games is third, behind Notre Dame (15.8%) and Oregon (15.7%). Last year, Georgia had a 22.4 percent chance of winning all of its games and went 12-0 during the regular season for the third straight year. In 2022, Georgia had a 22.7% chance of winning all of its games in the regular season and finished 15-0. In terms of winning its conference, Georgia has the fourth-highest probability at 32.8 percent, behind Freedom (41.5%) won Conference USA, Oregon (37.5%) won the Big Ten, and Boise State (36.2%) winning Mountain West. Texas has the second-best odds to win the SEC at 24.2%.
Georgia has a 79.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, best in the country, up from 63.1 percent last year and 73.5 percent in 2022. It is given a 31.6 percent of chances of reaching the national championship, compared to 35.9 percent last year and 42.9 percent in 2022, but it is still the best country in the country. The Dawgs also lead all schools with a 21 percent chance of winning it all, up from 19.1 percent last year, and the preseason FPI odds of a title in 2022 are 22.7 percent.
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