Oilers vs. Stars will be a massive matchup in the West, and our NHL picks expect Stuart Skinner to be tested in Game 1.
May 23, 2024 • 17:29 ET • 4 minute read
The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars take the ice at the American Airlines Center for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals tonight and it’s the Stars who are the betting favorites.
Edmonton has superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, but my Oilers vs. Stars back Stuart Skinner to surpass his save total. Find out why I chose this route in my NHL picks for Thursday, May 23.
Oilers vs Stars Prediction
my best bet
Stuart Skinner 24.5+ saves (-125 on Sports Interaction)
my analysis
A two-game restart off the bench proved beneficial for Edmonton Oilers’ No. 1 goaltender Stuart Skinner. He turned away 29 of 32 shots in consecutive wins over the Canucks to advance to the Western Conference finals.
However, the Dallas Stars have a deeper and more talented lineup than the Canucks jumping the boards, and Skinner will see a considerable increase in shots in Round 3. Vancouver generated just 32 shots on 114 attempts in the final two games of the series. , while Dallas averaged 29.2 shots per game in Round 2 against the Avalanche.
Additionally, the Kings averaged 29.0 shots per game and dominated 5-on-5 possession with a Corsi For percentage of 57.3 in Round 1.
Dallas will be able to drive possession against the Oiler supporting cast, and the Stars will convert over 28.1% of attempts into shots, unlike what the Canucks did in the last two featured games of Round 2. By way By comparison, the Stars have converted 42.1% of their shot attempts during the postseason.
I also think we’re getting a lower total because Skinner has been under the number in six straight starts, including closing out with a total of 23.5 saves in each of his last three appearances.
However, facing the Stars on the road is a completely different matchup, and I don’t think there has been enough of an adjustment in this betting market to account for the increase in class the Oilers and Skinner will face.
Skinner has also been better on the road during the postseason with a .909 SV% compared to a .851 mark at home, and his .881 overall is well behind his .905 SV% during the regular season.
Oilers vs Stars parlay in the same game (SGP)
stars money line
Less than 6.5 goals
What the Stars lack in comparative star power to the Oilers, they make up for with their advantage in goals and overall lineup depth. Particularly after Edmonton’s defensive pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, the Oilers are vulnerable on the blue line.
Additionally, the Stars just demonstrated their ability to hold off top scorers by stopping Colorado superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar in Round 2.
While Jake Oettinger will struggle to maintain a .941 SV% at 5-on-5, the Stars are also playing excellent team defense with the fewest goals against (1.5) and the second-fewest expected goals against (2.13) per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 during the playoffs. Finally, I hope Big D plays conservatively in Game 1 to prevent the first game from becoming a big-event, high-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet on a parlay in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Oilers vs Stars odds
Oilers vs Stars live odds
Oilers vs Stars opening odds
- disk line: Edmonton +1.5 (-225) | Dallas-1.5 (+185)
- money line: Edmonton +110 | dallas -130
- Below: More than 6.0 (-110) | Less than 6.0 (-110)
Oilers vs Stars moneyline and over/under analysis
- There hasn’t been any significant movement on this moneyline, with Sports Interaction still starting prices at Dallas -130 and Edmonton +110.
- I also don’t anticipate a significant adjustment leading to the puck dropping. This market has been open since early Tuesday morning.
- The 6.0 total is almost a consensus, and Sports Interaction has both parties priced at -110.
- FanDuel has an outlier total of 6.5 with an Under price of -138 as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Greasers vs stars trend
Dallas averaged 29.2 shots per game in Round 2 against Colorado. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Stars.
Oilers vs Stars game information
Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
Date: | Thursday, 05-23-2024 |
Disc drop: | 8:30 pm Eastern Time |
TELEVISION: | Sportsnet, TNT |
Oilers vs Stars latest injuries
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