The week of the conference tournament has been full of surprises. Bids were stolen, the hosting line was hit, and the NCAA Tournament landscape underwent changes. since last week. Ahead of the reveal of the 16 regional host sites on Sunday night, it’s time to update the Field of 64 Projections.
Going into Sunday, it seems likely that there will be between 18 and 19 teams in play to host a regional. Ultimately, East Carolina dropped out of the host list in our May 26 projections, and Mississippi State was the next most notable cut. Duke earned the final host spot by making a run to the ACC Championship, and they could clinch that spot with a win later today.
Of the 16 hosts, six of them come from the ACC. Five are from the SEC, two from the Big 12 and one from the Pac-12, Missouri Valley and Big West.
Here’s a full look at our latest Camp of 64 Screenings starting Sunday, May 26. The 16 hosts will be announced Sunday night and the full NCAA Tournament field will be revealed Monday.
bubble clock
Last four to arrive: Indiana, state of Kansas, James Madison, northeast
First four out: Carolina Coast, Charleston, South Georgia, Florida
Next four eliminated: Troy, California, Cincinnati, Kansas
Knoxville Regional
Credit: NCAA Baseball
1. Tennessee (1)*
2. Miss of the South
3. Nicolls*
4. Oral Roberts*
After losing their first SEC Tournament game, Tennessee bounced back with three straight wins and a fourth on Sunday would give them the SEC Tournament title. Even if they don’t win, the Vols feel like a safe bet to be the No. 1 overall seed when the field is announced. They are welcomed in Knoxville by Southern Miss, Nicholls and Oral Roberts.
Durham Regional
Credit: Duke Athletics
1. Duke (16)
2. East Carolina
3. University of Connecticut
4. Evansville*
Duke swept Group C in the ACC Tournament, defeating Virginia Tech and NC State. They then came back to defeat Miami in the semifinal and will face Florida State with the title on the line on Sunday. If Duke wins, they could easily secure the final hosting bid. Even if they lose, they could get the nod. They do it on today’s Field of 64. They have another host contender joining them in Durham at East Carolina, in addition to UConn and Evansville.
Chapel Hill Regional
David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via /Keynote USA/Getty Images
1. North Carolina (2)
2. Louisiana
3. Wofford*
4. Grambling Status*
Although they failed to win their group and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina should finish in the top three. They have a pretty compelling case for the No. 2 spot, and that’s where we have them positioned. They are joined by Chapel Hill Louisiana, Wofford and Grambling State.
Corvallis Regional
Rob Schumacher/La República/Keynote USA NETWORK
1. Oregon State (15)
2.San Diego*
3. Kansas State
4. Grand Canyon*
Oregon State is not completely safe as a host. The Beavers went 1-1 in the Pac-12 Tournament, and without a regular season or tournament title in the league, will they be punished? Especially with UC Santa Barbara also scheduled to host, the Beavers could fall to line 2. Today, however, they get the nod. Also in Corvallis are San Diego, the state of Kansas and the Grand Canyon.
Lexington Regional
Photo by Morgan Simmons (UK Athletics)
1.Kentucky (3)
2. Roof tiles
3. Saint John
4. Northern Kentucky*
Kentucky went 1-2 at Hoover, but despite an earlier-than-expected exit in the SEC Tournament, they should be in the top four. In today’s field of 64, they sit at No. 3, although they could finish anywhere between No. 2 and No. 4. The Wildcats face Texas, St. John’s and Northern Kentucky in the Lexington Regional.
Terre Haute Regional
Credit: Indiana State Athletics
1. Indiana State (14)
2. Wake Forest
3.Illinois
4. Western Michigan*
Like Oregon State, Indiana State might not be as safe a host as most believe. Even with a top-ten RPI, the Sycamores’ resume is light and they didn’t win the Missouri Valley Tournament. Still, Indiana State is in the mix and they got the nod as our No. 14 seed on Sunday. Wake Forest, Illinois and Western Michigan round out the Terre Haute Regional.
University Station Regional
(Wade/Sportswire Icon)
1. Texas A&M (4)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Northeast
4. Army*
Texas A&M went 0-2 in the SEC Tournament, likely ending its chances of taking the No. 1 overall seed. Still, with RPI at #2, they will be in the top five. The Aggies are ranked #4 today and 3-5 appears to be their range. They are joined in College Station by Dallas Baptist, Northeastern and Army.
Santa Barbara Regional
Credit: UC Santa Barbara Athletics
1. UC Santa Barbara (13)*
2.Arizona
3. Indiana
4. Fresno State*
UC Santa Barbara didn’t have a conference tournament like the Big West doesn’t have one, but this week they clinched the regular season conference championship after dominating the league. Los Guachos feel like a safe host right now. Also in Santa Barbara are Arizona, Indiana and the state of Fresno.
Fayetteville Regional
(Arkansas Athletics)
1.Arkansas (5)
2.Nebraska*
3. TCU
4. Southeast Missouri*
It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Arkansas fell just outside the top five overall rankings after going 0-2 under Hoover. Still, they rank #5 in today’s Field of 64 screenings. The Razorbacks are ranked No. 5 in RPI. If they don’t make the top five, they probably won’t fall any lower than No. 6. Joining them in the Fayetteville Regional are Nebraska, TCU and Southeast Missouri.
Raleigh Regional
NC State catcher Jacob Cozart celebrates after hitting a home run. (Photo credit: Mollie Mitchell/NC State Athletics).
1. North Carolina State (12)
2. State of Mississippi
3. UNC Wilmington*
4. Bryant*
NC State had a chance to sneak into the top eight, but fell short after finishing 1-1 in its pool and failing to reach the ACC Tournament semifinals. Still, the Wolfpack feels like a safe bet to host and should sit somewhere in the 11-13 range. Joining them in the Raleigh Regional is another potential host in Mississippi State, in addition to UNC Wilmington and Bryant.
Clemson Regional
(Clemsonbaseball/Twitter)
1. Clemson (6)
2. L.S.U.
3. James Madison
4. Highlight*
At this point, it looks like Clemson will be the No. 6 or No. 7 overall pick. Heading into Sunday, we have them at No. 6. The Tigers failed to make it out of their group in the ACC Tournament, but their top-eight status is not in doubt. They are joined at Clemson Regional by LSU, James Madison and High Point.
Stillwater Region
SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / Keynote USA NETWORK
1. Oklahoma State (11)*
2. Vanderbilt
3. Oregon
4. Niagara*
Oklahoma State was a projected host this week, but they erased any doubts by making an impressive run to win the Big 12 Tournament. They’re likely just one step shy of being a top-ten overall seed and coming in at No. 11 today. The Cowboys welcome Vanderbilt, Oregon and Niagara in the Stillwater Regional.
Athens Regional
Kari Hodges/UGA Sports Communications
1. Georgia (7)
2. Louisiana Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. Sacred Heart*
Georgia is probably a top-eight overall seed right now, and seems likely to land somewhere between 6 and 8. The Bulldogs managed just one finish in the SEC Tournament, but still appear to be a good bet to finish in the top eight. If they don’t, they won’t be far away. Also in the Athens Regional are Louisiana Tech, Georgia Tech and Sacred Heart.
Charlottesville Regional
June 16, 2023; Omaha, NE, USA; Virginia Cavaliers shortstop Griff O’Ferrall (6) scores a run against the Florida Gators during the seventh inning at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Keynote USA Sports
1. Virginia (10)
2. West Virginia
3. UCV*
4. Penn*
Virginia went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament and failed to make it out of its group, but it is a safe host and should finish in the 9-12 range. They are probably just one step behind the other top eight contenders. They are joined in Charlottesville Regional by West Virginia, VCU and Penn.
Tallahassee Regional
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / Keynote USA NETWORK
1. Florida State (8)
2. South Carolina
3. UCF
4. Stetson*
Florida State has had a big week, currently 3-0 and preparing for the ACC Tournament Championship against Duke. If they win, the Seminoles will almost certainly be in the top eight. If they lose, they could still get there, but they could fall just outside of 9 or 10. Either way, they come in as our last top-eight seed in today’s field of 64. Joining them in Tallahassee are South Carolina, UCF and Stetson.
Norman Regional
BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN/Keynote USA NETWORK
1.Oklahoma (9)
2. University of California, Irvine
3.Alabama
4. Tulane*
If Oklahoma had won the Big 12 Tournament, it would have been difficult to deny them a spot in the top eight. However, dominating the regular season title and losing the championship game isn’t bad at all. In the end, the Sooners finish today as our ninth seed. They are joined by Norman Regional Oklahoma, UC Irvine, Alabama and Tulane.
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