Yes, the NFL season doesn’t start for three months. But why not reflect on the projected win totals for a team like the Green Bay Packers, who ended 2023 with an exclamation point?
And, at least on paper, the Packers only got better in the offseason, making big signings like running back. jose jacobs and security Xavier McKinney. Additionally, Green Bay added offensive tackle Andre Dillard, a unique first-round pick who has yet to live up to his initial billing. Perhaps a change of direction will inspire the approach.
But quarterback Jordan Love is a big reason for all the optimism. Last season was his first as a starter. It was the big year after Aaron Rodgers. Love passed the test and with a quick finish to the regular season, led the Packers to the playoffs as a seventh seed. Green Bay then swept the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium before falling to the 49ers. However, the team was competitive against the eventual NFC champions.
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund broke down the projected win totals for all 32 teams. She predicts the Packers will win 9.8 games this season and finish second behind the Lions in the NFC North. And her projections were not based on gut guesses.
“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for the 272 regular season games,” he wrote.
And he noted that “remember that these simulations take into account many contextualized data points that have been shown to correlate with wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”
Used odds from Caesars Sportsbook & Casino. And she took the under for victories.
Packers odds for 2024 NFL season
- Total earnings: less than 10.0 (-110)
- Make Qualifiers: -180
- Division won: +190
- Win conference: +800
- Win the Super Bowl: +2000
The Packers selected offensive lineman Jordan Morgan with their first-round pick in last month’s NFL Draft. (Kirby Lee-Keynote USA Sports)
Frelund praised Green Bay for who they selected in the first round of last month’s NFL Draft.
She wrote: “according to my models, the design of a versatile blocker Jordan Morgan added more wins than any other pick when Green Bay first hit the clock at Pick No. 25. The talented offensive lineman will further bolster a passing attack that already saw Jordan Love throw 32 touchdown passes in his first season as a starter and help improve rushing opportunities for a group that ranked third-worst in rushing yards above expected against stacked boxes last season (-49).
“The schedule gets thorny for the Pack around Thanksgiving, with a pair of home games against San Francisco and Miami immediately followed by trips to Detroit and Seattle.”
Frelund projects the 49ers as the best team in the NFC, while predicting San Francisco will win 11.2 games. The 49ers are just ahead of the Eagles, who he predicts will win 11.1. The Lions are third with 10.6 wins. The Falcons are surprisingly fourth with 9.9 wins. Atlanta receives support for signing Kirk Cousins at the quarterback.
The last two teams predicted in this early 2024 projection are the Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1.
There will be football next week in Green Bay. The Packers begin phase three of OTAs on Monday. That means 11 versus 11 exercises. Although contact is not allowed, it is still football at the end of May. We will take it.
You can check out all of Frelund’s screenings by clicking here.
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