Let’s start this week with Statcast’s model of skepticism, James Paxton. The data says it’s bad. But he continues to get good results. So if he wants to say that he is proof that we should ignore Statcast, he has an argument. But then you’re also a nihilist (language warning for that link). You believe in nothing except actual results, which have zero utility value/advantage.
Look at the difference here in your pitch value (actual) and your pitch metrics (mostly expected). Evel Knievel couldn’t jump that chasm. I’m not going to try it. If you want to boost Paxton’s list from his current 44% on Yahoo because you think what he’s doing is sustainable, then you’re just not a persuadable person to me. If your league has a big brain, could there be an advantage to buying players who are actually doing well rather than hypothetically? Maybe. But most leagues have three or four coaches (maximum) who think like we advise in this space.
Needless to say, Paxton will be on my no good list. We’ll start there. I do not argue that the expected statistics are predictive. I’m saying they’re descriptive of how the guy is actually pitching. So if you wouldn’t include a pitcher right now who is 35 years old with a low K rate and an ERA over 5.00, then don’t include Paxton. Simply give the expected statistics the weight of the actual ones. There is an advantage here because you are playing a different game than the majority of your league.
Who else should you rule out despite the valuable stats so far? And by discard I mean try to negotiate. There’s no point in just taking out a guy with great surface stats. (All data is as of Monday. The full spreadsheet is here.)
Pitchers to avoid
tyler andersonThe expected ERA is 4.83, or 2.11 better than the actual one. He has 33% of the staff.
logan webb clocks in at 4.86, which isn’t a surprise given his WHIP is above 1.30. And he is 98% on the roster, so he is extremely marketable with a real ERA of 3.03.
Jose Berrios He has an expected ERA of 4.61, but his actual ERA of 2.82 is on 93% of his roster. I don’t believe it.
Carlos Rodon He’s seen as a Comeback Kid but, really? His expected ERA is 4.89, ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 150 balls in play. So let’s see if a league mate buys his actual ERA (3.27). I stipulate that there is a chance that Rodón will throw better given last year’s injury problems, which may still be a little rusty. But why wait when you can sell it at that price right now?
The launchers to aim
More important to us are the pitchers who are much better than they appear when looking at their scoreboard statistics. These types tend to be more available, through trade and even through exemptions.
Brandon Pfaadt he has an elite expected ERA of 3.07, more than a streak better than actual. But he is 66% enrolled. Could you trade Rodón and a weaker hitter for Pfaadt and a stronger hitter and win both sides of the deal? Absolutely. I would dare say that it is even almost probable.
Nestor Cortes He is very ugly for the roster since he is gimmicky with his movements and can barely break a pane of glass with his fastball. But his expected effectiveness is the second lowest. Yes, he is 82% enrolled. But none of his managers love him as much as his expected effectiveness, I guarantee it. He doesn’t hurt you much in Ks either.
Here is a type to collect exemptions: Patrick Sandoval Only 8% are registered. His expected ERA is 3.62, which is playable in all formats. Some, like Aaron Nola, have something, or more precisely are missing, that prevents them from underperforming their peripherals. Maybe Sandoval just can’t take advantage of his above-average raw ability for some reason. But when I can’t think of a reason why that would be true, I still think it’s random and hope it changes.
Similarly, Reid Detmers Only 35% are registered. He’s basically performing almost exactly like Yoshi Yamamoto. I’m saying you can trade Yamamoto and a borderline hitter for Detmers and a top 20 hitter. Not only can you, but you should (if you need to hit). This is how you win leagues.
Ronel Blanco it’s good and I personally think it’s arbitrary that it gets suspended for sticky fingers (the best Rolling Stones album and probably the best album of all time, by the way). What is the standard that referees apply? There is no science involved. Blanco is being abandoned by some moralists and I believe he will pitch as well as he has in the future. Do not let him fall.
Michael Wacha He’s adding like crazy, but his roster rate is still under 40%. His 3.67 expected ERA says he’s still on the verge of being a starter in mixed leagues. So it’s not just the last two starts, but the entire year in which he’s pitched well enough to be at the back of your rotation for the price of a waiver.
(Top photo: Matt Krohn//Keynote USA/Getty Images; Chris Coduto//Keynote USA/Getty Images; Paxton photo: Matt Krohn//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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