Ben Nicholson-Smith May 26, 2024, 3:15 p.m.
DETROIT – Two months into the season, the Toronto Blue Jays are in trouble.
They are 23-29 after suffering a dizzying 14-11 loss to the Tigers on Sunday, six games under .500, the worst mark of the season. Their veteran bats are mired in deep slumps and their bullpen, which allowed nine runs on Sunday, remains among the worst in MLB. After losing three games in a row against the Tigers, this team is in a bad situation.
It’s true that there is time left on the schedule now, and a week against the White Sox and Pirates is all you can ask for, schedule-wise. Credit Daulton Varsho for a clutch three-run homer that briefly gave the Blue Jays the lead on Sunday. But still, some simple math tells the story clearly.
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Let’s leave aside the American League East. Obviously, the Blue Jays have already fallen out of the division race. But to match last year’s total of 89 wins, they would have to finish 66-44, a 97-win pace. If you lower the bar to 84 wins, the lowest of any 2023 playoff team, you’re still looking at a 90-win pace going forward.
But remember, 84 wins isn’t usually enough to make the playoffs, so that’s the minimum. The Blue Jays will most likely need to play at a 95-win pace from now on. Can they do it? It is technically possible. It’s been done before. But nothing about the way this group has succeeded suggests they’re a sure bet to be next.
As frustrating as it all was, the Blue Jays wouldn’t stand to gain much by declaring themselves sellers tomorrow. There may come a time when they have to, of course. In fact, it has never seemed more likely. But the trading market doesn’t fully develop until July, so it’s best to let things stay that way a little longer, knowing that returns will be just as good in two months, maybe better.
Despite the pitching woes (an ineffective start by Yusei Kikuchi preceded the bullpen woes) there were some positives at the plate on Sunday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had four hits and Cavan Biggio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa each homered.
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But this team’s offensive problems are still very real. George Springer and Justin Turner started the day on the bench on Sunday, and both may see some reduction in their playing time, but it’s not like the Blue Jays’ bench is full of solutions to their offensive problems. Maybe it’s time to give Spencer Horwitz or Orelvis Martínez a chance.
It’s difficult to complete trades this time of year anyway. At first, teams rely on offseason additions, but the Blue Jays are where they are in part because only one of their offseason moves has worked out as planned. Let’s give Kiner-Falefa credit; he is playing well. Otherwise, every move the Blue Jays made backfired:
• The pitchers they invested the most in, Chad Green and Yariel Rodríguez, have spent much of the season on the disabled list, combining for just 23 innings.
• Their designated hitters have been among the worst in baseball. Justin Turner has a .664 OPS two months into his one-year, $13 million contract. Fellow designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach has been even less productive, posting a .586 OPS. Meanwhile, an ankle injury derailed Joey Votto’s progress.
• Kevin Kiermaier, the other position player the Blue Jays signed this winter, is hitting .226 with a .624 OPS.
• Adding to the offensive difficulties, structural changes to the team’s hitting training have not led to significant enough improvement. If anything, this team is worse offensively since Don Mattingly was named offensive coordinator, with fewer runs than every team except the Mariners and White Sox, who entered the game on Sunday.
Who knows, maybe these players are on the verge of a change and the Blue Jays are about to start playing like a much better team. Strange things happen in baseball. But at this point, they can’t wait another month, or even a couple more weeks. If they keep wasting winnable series like this much longer, they won’t have a choice. It will be time to give up on the 2024 season and sell.
Keynote USA
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