The everyone-in-the-pool vibe of Major League Baseball’s modern playoff structure certainly puts paid to the concept of “surprise teams.” However, it still demands clarity.
And with the first of America’s big three grilling and relaxing on the weekends, it’s time to separate the title contenders from the false bidders.
As the MLB season nears the halfway mark, a look at five teams whose moderately surprising rise into contention is legit, and those whose hopes could take a turn, not unlike the leftover guacamole in your refrigerator:
Parents: legitimate
Yes, it’s silly, we know: a team whose payroll with luxury taxes will reach $225 million seems pretty strange mentioned in the realm of “surprises” or “brave little hopefuls.” But San Diego’s cut, cut, cut signal with the Juan Soto trade certainly dimmed the lights on a payroll party that seemed to go on forever.
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The bill is yet to come: Soto is a Yankee, the top prospects who traded for him are not coming back, and the $280 million man, Xander Bogaerts, is no longer a shortstop, is no longer productive, and is now no longer healthy.
But the trade to acquire quasi-ace Dylan Cease opened a two-year window of contention, and the Padres opened it even further with the surprise deal for reigning batting champion Luis Arráez, who, like Cease, can become an agent free after 2025.
The result? San Diego has won 11 of 19 since the Arráez deal, surpassing .500 and putting itself in a crowded wild-card race. Hey, it’s not easy to get a playoff spot when your rival on the highway is practically guaranteed the division.
Through their actions and play, the Padres have ensured another loud, crowded and relevant summer at Petco Park.
Red Sox: Suspect
They’ve already swung above and below the .500 mark five times, with a fledgling pitching staff always keeping them in games and preventing any losing streak from extending beyond four games.
And although they rank second in ERA and eighth in OPS in the major leagues, we wonder if this team won’t have the assets to remain in their very high-income district.
They are just 9-17 against clubs with winning records, and 26-25 is simply good enough for third place in the American League East, where the Yankees lead them by nine games.
Oh, and that reminds us: they still have to play all 13 games against the Yankees, plus 10 more against Baltimore.
Given that their encouraging start doesn’t yet have them in playoff position, we can’t see the improvement with the tightening of the schedule and some outlier performances (Tyler O’Neill’s 143 adjusted OPS, say) likely coming back to earth.
Real: legitimate
We signaled our faith in these cats a few days ago, and since then they’ve gone out and swept a division rival and defeated the best pitcher in the American League to date. There simply comes a time when a rising team overcomes the hurdle of conviction, which only makes them play even better.
The Royals are there and with some vital signs that seem encouraging for sustainability.
Of note: They rank fourth in the majors in runs, but just 16th in home runs, with 52. You could say that power doesn’t disappear, but it can fall, and with MVP candidates Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Pérez, covered by a contact. With a conscious lineup that ranks second in fewest strikeouts, the Royals are tough on a nightly basis.
Naturally, the durability of his pitching may say it all, but the fact that Seth Lugo is pitching like an All-Star and Cole Ragans continues to make strides toward ace status means a major part of that is in place.
Cardinals: Suspect
They have climbed out of the cellar of the NL Central (or at least, underperformed the Reds and Pirates in recent weeks) and have joined the flotilla of wild-card contenders. They could possibly catch the second-place Cubs this weekend, who just swept the Baltimore club from the American League playoffs.
But the patient’s vital signs keep flashing in the wrong direction.
A -43 run differential means they’re actually lucky to be only 23-26. They are 29th in runs scored, 23rd in OPS and, below that, 26th with a 36.5% hard hit percentage.
Hey, Sonny Gray should make the All-Star Game for the second year in a row, but let’s not pretend that a decent and improved, but far from dominant, pitching staff can get to that point. It’s not hard to imagine the Cardinals in a familiar situation: not so bad that it’s tempting to ruin everything, not so powerful that they can be taken seriously as a contender.
Giants: legit
To the point that a 26-26 club can be considered legitimate.
A crushing, season-ending injury to Jung Hoo Lee and a stint on the IL for Michael Conforto forced the club to deploy youngsters Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos, and Matos has been a revelation, with 19 RBI and a slugging percentage of .460 in 50 at-bats. .
Blake Snell doesn’t look like a lost cause and should become deeper and more effective in games. Meanwhile, Boras Four alum Matt Chapman has been playing like an MVP the last 10 days, in Platinum Glove form on defense and on pace for 25 home runs.
Should left-hander Matt Harrison emerge as the man of the rotation – or, at least, a firm No. 2 behind Logan Webb – the Giants have the makings of a Tortura-style effort to reach 85 wins and save the day in October.
Keynote USA
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