The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball.
Through 48 games, the merry Fightin’ have a solid 34-14 record. They are five games behind the Atlanta Braves atop the National League East entering play Tuesday, the club’s biggest divisional lead since the final game of the 2011 season. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are hitting as All-Stars. Philadelphia’s starting coaching staff, bolstered by the rise of left-hander Ranger Suarez, boasts the lowest rotation ERA in MLB. The wild baseball circus that opened during the 2022 NLDS continues its march.
But how much better are these Phillies? Is this team actually an improved version of itself or simply the beneficiary of an outrageously comfortable early-season schedule?
The answer is yes.
How easy has the path to Philadelphia been? So far in 2024, the Phillies have played just three games against a team with a record currently above .500, and all three were on opening weekend against the Braves. Since then, Philadelphia has played 19 of its games against five of MLB’s six worst teams: the Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Angels and White Sox. Aside from Atlanta, the Phillies haven’t seen a division leader. And except for the Padres, whom they swept in San Diego in late April, Philadelphia hasn’t even faced a second-place team.
Philadelphia’s opponents’ combined winning percentage this year is currently .465, by far the lowest in MLB. The next easiest schedule belongs to Tampa Bay at .477. No other team has an SOS below .480.
That’s an ultra-smooth Charmin schedule. Cozier than Egyptian cotton. Far from being a challenge. The smoothest navigation possible. But several things can be true at once: the schedule has been bad and the Phillies have been better.
The starting rotation, with a league-best 2.63 ERA, has led the way. By comparison, Philadelphia’s staff ERA was 4.87 this time last year. The difference is not the personnel (most of these pitchers were wearing red pinstripes a year ago) but the development from within.
Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola were their typically valuable workhorses at the top of the team. Behind them, lanky switch artist Christopher Sánchez has become a reliable arm in the middle rotation. Spencer Turnbull has phenomenally replaced Taijuan Walker, who has been the relatively weak link since his return in early May. But by far the biggest development so far has been the emergence of Suarez.
In 2022 and 2023, the cold-blooded southpaw served as a capable No. 3 in the regular season before elevating his game in October. This year, after being hampered by various injuries and obstacles last spring training, the 28-year-old Venezuelan was healthy and available throughout camp. And that has made a big difference: He currently has the second-lowest ERA in baseball and should be considered a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Offensively, the Phillies have been buoyed in large part by a breakout campaign from Alec Bohm. The bushy-limbed lord has been a contact-oriented hitter since his debut in 2020. But this year, the 27-year-old third baseman has added more power to his game without sacrificing his bat-to-ball skills. ; Bohm is throwing the ball more often and hitting it harder on average. Additionally, his once-poor hot corner defense has improved significantly. Simply put, Bohm has been the best third baseman in the MLB since the beginning.
His hot start has helped the lineup weather Trea Turner’s long stint on the injured list. Timely bursts from utility players Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens have also filled in the gaps. Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto have been more good than great, and Nick Castellanos’ continued offensive ineptitude is a real concern, but Harper and Stott have provided enough firepower to keep the Phillies moving.
At its core, this Phillies club remains remarkably unchanged from the previous two seasons. There’s a little more depth to the roster, but nothing groundbreaking.
Before a recent game against the Mets at Citi Field, captain Rob Thomson was asked if 2024 was starting to feel like something special. The veteran baseball player offered something between a laugh and a complaint, dismissing the idea and highlighting his club’s continuity while he pointed vaguely toward the never-ending season and indicated that postseason success is the team’s true goal.
Backup receiver Garrett Stubbs echoed the sentiment after that day’s game.
“It feels (special), you know, since ’22,” he said. “Here you have a lot of the same guys that were on the ’22 team and the ’23 team. They all feel very comfortable with each other.”
He is right. This team is mostly made up of the same guys, but thanks in part to an easier schedule, they are simply playing better.
And the only thing the Phillies can do is keep beating the teams in front of them. Your schedule will eventually become more difficult. An impressive run against the Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers looms just after the All-Star break. Their five-game lead over the Braves in the division will come in handy when the tough days of summer arrive.
Atlanta probably has more pitching depth, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, but if the Phillies’ arms stay healthy, they will have a chance to win the East. Their chances of winning the division, according to FanGraphs, have increased from 6.9% on opening day to 41.8% entering play on Tuesday.
Even if Philadelphia doesn’t end up winning the NL East, the longer they keep things close, the more aggressive the Braves will have to be with their roster decisions down the stretch. That can only benefit Philadelphia come October.
In the Braves’ ideal scenario, they would have enough upside to rest some or all of their starting pitchers at some point over the summer. Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale have been excellent, but neither has pitched more than 140 innings since 2019. Charlie Morton has been reliable, but he carries all the injury risks that come with being 40 years old. Managing workloads would be an easier task for Atlanta with leadership in the division.
That would also give Atlanta a chance to try out its two top prospects, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, in low-pressure starting roles. But the smaller the gap, the less Atlanta can plan ahead for the playoffs. It’s less of an issue with their position players because all the Braves play almost every day, but it’s something to keep track of with Atlanta’s starting rotation.
It all presents a very different dynamic than the 14-game cushion the Braves enjoyed last season. Because while Harper and company made the playoffs the last two seasons, they did so despite disappointing springs. The club’s record in 48 games through 2023 was 22-26. In 2022, Philadelphia went 21-27. Both years featured intense summers that allowed baseball in October.
This time, the Phillies have made things much, much easier for themselves. Instead of a hole to get out of, they have built a perch, giving themselves a leash and freedom of action. They were offered a peaceful path and they have made the most of it.
Keynote USA
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