Overall, the Royals bullpen has been the weakest part of the fast start. There has been a lot of moaning about the shortcomings on the offense, but it really has been good enough so far. An average of 4.67 runs per game when the league average is 4.33 is not surprising, but it currently ranks eighth in baseball. It turns out that having two MVP-level bats in an offense is really helpful. However, the bullpen ranks 25th by fWAR, 25th by FIP, and 29th by xFIP. Fortunately, they rank 17th in effectiveness, so they’ve avoided some of the downsides that seem plausible up to this point. Although I think it may not be luck.
This starting rotation has been really good. Everyone already knows it. But although they have been more than effective, they have also given volume. So far, the five starters, plus two spot starts, have covered 279.1 innings. The rotation in 2023 had only thrown 238 in 49 games. Getting 40 extra innings from your starters means the bullpen hasn’t been taxed. If this pace continues, then the rotation will pitch nearly 135 more innings than last season. That’s two full reliever seasons minus work for the bullpen.
I think that has partly allowed the reliever’s effectiveness to exceed the FIP and xFIP that I noted above. Bullpen arms are not asked to pitch frequently on consecutive days, or to pitch five times a week. That means they have their best stuff most of the time when they’re out there. Also, after the first three or four arms, the bullpen has been very weak. So part of what looks bad is because people like Matt Sauer, Chris Stratton and Tyler Duffey brought down the overall numbers, but not in important situations. Sauer, for example, gave up runs to Gibr in the Oakland series over the weekend, but it was after those two games were already decided and no one cared. He is now no longer on the Royals roster. This bullpen will improve through promotion and trade in the future.
Sam Long was the first promotion, but Omaha still has Walter Pennington and Will Klein, who appear to be positive contributors. And that’s before we start talking about Jonathan Bowlan, Daniel Lynch IV and Kris Bubic, who are apparently starters, but it might make sense to use them in bullpen roles this season if you’re chasing a playoff spot.
I’m still not sure this team has enough, if any, dominant bullpen arms internally. James McArthur has done a reasonably competent job closing games so far, but not good enough to be able to clearly close games in a playoff environment. As the trade deadline approaches, the Royals should definitely take a beating on relievers like Hunter Harvey, Jo Jo Romero, or guys who are really getting the job done on one-year deals. Of course, they could also use some inexpensive landscaping improvements, but that’s for another article.
For now, the Royals have McArthur, Zerpa and Schreiber, who all seem pretty trustworthy. That’s a long way from HDH and there aren’t enough names. Starting pitching has really saved this team from another disappointing spring. Maybe Will Smith will continue his hot streak and reestablish himself as a reliable fourth option. In his last nine outings, he has not allowed a run in seven and two-thirds with just one walk. Unfortunately, he’s only struck out two in that time, which isn’t a dominant profile despite improving after a rough start. The lack of strikeouts has been the glaring weakness of this bullpen.
Kansas City’s bullpen ranks 29th in baseball in strikeouts per nine innings at 7.16. Even their best strikeout arm, McArthur, is only 10.02. There are three team bullpens with better ratings than his. Having one or two elite strikeout pitchers in the back of the bullpen is a necessary weapon in today’s baseball, especially in the playoffs. Pennington might be one (he’s striking out 13.35 per nine in Omaha), but he’s really the only one unless one of the starters can boost his rate out of the bullpen. This seems like a glaring weakness that could be addressed as we move into the summer.
With victory comes expectation, and with expectation, the looming specter of disappointment can begin to become a risk. This team has done everything we could have wanted and more so far, but fans are hard to satisfy. That starting rotation is incredible, congratulations to JJ Piccolo and Brian Sweeney. As long as they stay reasonably healthy, I’m comfortable assuming they’ll do enough to reach the AL Central. It doesn’t have to be now, but over the next few months, they’ll need to have a bullpen strong enough to finish games. Right now, he’s a little shaky, but options in the minors and perhaps a trade could be enough to really set this team up for success.
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