Has it really come to this?
After eight seasons in the NHL, Mitch Marner is fifth on the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ all-time assists list. He is eighth in points. He is fifth in points per game. He owns two of the 10 highest scoring seasons in franchise history. He has never missed the playoffs.
And yet, something has to change. Someone has to go. Never mind that the Leafs, since Marner and Auston Matthews debuted in 2016-17, have the third-best record in the NHL at 356-188-74. The fanbase just doesn’t care anymore. The team won just one playoff series during that stretch and went 0-6 in winner-take-all games.
With Matthews and William Nylander embarking on their new contract extensions and John Tavares likely remaining a Leaf through the final season of his contract with a cap hit of $11 million, that leaves Marner and defenseman Morgan Rielly as the two core members. in which general manager Brad Treliving works. He must make decisions. Marner, a two-time first-team All-Star who ranks seventh in the NHL in scoring over the past five seasons and is three years younger than Rielly, is the player who will get the biggest return.
Marner has a full no-movement clause, but that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to remain a Leaf. He’s number one on my colleague Frank Seravalli’s Trade Targets board for a reason. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported this week that Marner’s camp prefers to play the entire season in Toronto and not present any type of trade list. But that doesn’t mean suitors can’t come ask, nor does it mean Leafs bosses can’t see what’s out there. The very act of asking a player to waive his NMC sends the message that a team does not view that player as part of its long-term plans. So it’s still possible that Marner, a 2025 UFA, decides to work with the Leafs to find a new home. Many things can change between now and October.
If the Leafs end up sending Marner in a blockbuster trade…what landing spots might make sense? Consider these destinations.
buffalo sabers
Why it makes sense: The time for patience has passed for a Sabers team mired in a record 13-year NHL playoff drought. They have more than enough young assets, particularly up front, to the point that they can barely fit them all on the depth chart. The Sabers need difference-making veterans now. They are swimming in cap space, with FRG goalkeeper Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen representing his only major contract for the 2024-25 season. They have enough promising young players to be able to build a competitive package in a commercial offer; you could start Dylan Cozens, for example, and include another prospect or first-round pick. And from Marner’s perspective, a brief tour of the QEW would mean he can change teams without uprooting his life.
Fly in the soup: Would the Leafs want to trade Marner within their division and have to face him four times a year? Wouldn’t being so close to Toronto seem like enough of a new beginning? And would he be willing to take a step back from his quest for playoff glory by joining the team known for never making the playoffs?
Carolina Hurricanes
Why it makes sense: The Hurricanes are positioned for a turnaround this offseason. In six seasons under coach Rod Brind’Amour, they have a .664 points percentage and have set the standard for playmaking across the league, but have failed to advance even to a Stanley Cup Final. . One thing the Canes have consistently lacked: an elite-level point accumulator. They haven’t had a top-10 scorer in the NHL since 2012-13. With so many free agents, they have no shortage of cap space if they decide to dedicate it to Marner. His ability to offer her the opportunity to play for another contender could increase the odds of him resigning from his NMC, and Raleigh as a market would offer a significant respite from Toronto’s stifling atmosphere.
It also happens that restricted free agent Martin Necas, a right-footed, goal-line shooting right winger, has likely ended up like Cane, determined to earn a bigger role elsewhere. Given that there is some overlap in his skills as silky-handed playmakers, it might make sense to send Necas the other way in a deal with Marner.
Fly in the soup: Marner would provide the Canes with elite scoring…in the regular season. This team has struggled to get over the hump in clutch moments, so would bringing in Marner, whose career points per game drop from 1.11 in the regular season to 0.88 in the playoffs, really solve the problem? Additionally, the Canes and interim general manager Eric Tulsky have a lot of cap maneuvers to sort out. In addition to Necas being unsigned, standout right winger Seth Jarvis needs a new deal as an RFA. Defenseman Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei are UFAs. The Canes have to decide whether to also go for re-signing left winger Jake Guentzel. So whether they have room for Marner’s $10.903 million AAV – and more in an extension – depends on his plans for all of his free agents.
Chicago Blackhawks
Why it makes sense: The Blackhawks will soon add another top prospect with the second overall pick and will continue to build their core alongside Connor Bedard. But as they approach a critical mass of young talent and find themselves with nearly $34 million in cap space this offseason, they are positioned to begin adding and building a competitive team around Bedard. It doesn’t make sense at this juncture for general manager Kyle Davidson to pursue older UFAs with long-term deals, but a 27-year-old in his prime represents the type of move that would be prudent. Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid won the Hart and Art Ross trophies and made the playoffs in their second NHL seasons. If Bedard wants to continue his generational talent trajectory, he needs some quality teammates to play with. Chicago also offers an attractive Original Six market, not like the Toronto experience, but nothing obscure.
Fly in the soup: Is it perhaps a year too early for the Hawks to accelerate? Their roster is absolutely empty and it will take more than one major acquisition to change that. We also have to wonder what package they would need to ship to Toronto. Big blue right-hander Seth Jones would fill some needs, but he’s not exactly playing at his highest level these days. With so few quality veterans, the Hawks would likely have to dip into their prospects and/or picks to balance the bill on a deal. This is a risky proposition for a team that is so far from winning. Speaking of which: Marner would have to accept the idea that he will likely miss the playoffs in at least his first season as a Hawk, if not several seasons if he signs an extension.
Nashville Predators
Why it makes sense: No, this is not a direct response to the rumors recently thrown at general manager Barry Trotz. The Preds just make sense if they fit. Trotz has established himself as an aggressive roster revamp, continuing a tradition established by his predecessor David Poile. Nashville was much more competitive than many expected in 2023-24, and a player like Marner could elevate them to a higher level. When looking at a possible extension: Tennessee has no state income tax, so Marner could make a lot of money under an acceptable cap. The Predators could build an offer around goaltender Juuse Saros.
Fly in the soup: It seems more likely that the Leafs will look to the free agent market, perhaps at someone like Laurent Brossoit, and sign a mid-level option to pair with Joseph Woll, which would cost them only money and no assets. If Saros is not part of a deal, do the Predators really have the assets to acquire Marner? Luke Evangelista and the prospects won’t make it.
Seattle Kraken
Why it makes sense: The Kraken’s trajectory has been strange. They leveled up in Year 2, came within one game of the Western Conference finals and raised fan expectations in the process. The bubble burst last season. Now his immediate future is cloudy. They looked nothing like a playoff team in 2023-24. But they have a new coach in Dan Bylsma, some interesting young forwards coming up in Shane Wright and Jagger Firkus and a truly underrated goalie in Joey Daccord. Marner would give them their first true star and accelerate their maturation as contenders. The Kraken also has quite a few veteran assets with plenty of time left on their deals, making them useful trading bait. Big blueliners like Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak would likely appeal to Treliving.
Fly in the soup: If I’m accepting a trade offer from Seattle, I won’t give up my perennial 90-point scorer for a lowball offer. I want Wright or Matty Beniers to come to me. But Seattle has only been building its pipeline of young talent for a few years; Would they have to gut too much to acquire Marner?
Utah HC
Why it makes sense: New owner Ryan Smith wants the Delta Center to rock from Game 1 onward. What better way to cultivate a potentially enthusiastic new fan base than by getting a star to build around? Utah and general manager Bill Armstrong also probably have the best variety of assets to offer, ranging from promising young players (Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, etc.), tons of Draft picks or, in a blockbuster scenario, a good friend of Matthews. and potential new linemate in Clayton Keller. There are many interesting permutations to consider.
Fly in the soup: As is also the case with the Seattle setting: Utah is very, very far from Toronto, where Marner grew up. Moving to another continent into an unknown hockey market would feel like exile. Would Marner’s team really want to bet on their future when they had the ability to sit in the NMC and choose their landing spot next summer if necessary?
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