Typically, when NASCAR Cup drivers move up to the Xfinity Series, they will be the favorites to win.
These drivers have the talent necessary to earn a place in the sport’s top category and, in addition, they usually have quality equipment. That will be difficult to overcome.
This week in Nashville, there are five Cup regulars in the race. And yet, according to my model, the favorite is an Xfinity veteran.
This is what my sims have for the field before practice and qualifying for the Tennessee Lottery 250.
Justin Allgaier | 15.4% | 39.1% | 55.2% |
Ty Gibbs | 12.7% | 34.3% | 50.4% |
John Hunter Nemechek | 9.8% | 29.0% | 44.4% |
Cole Custer | 8.6% | 24.6% | 39.1% |
Austin Hill | 8.2% | 23.5% | 38.4% |
Chandler Smith | 6.7% | 20.4% | 33.6% |
Tyler Reddick | 6.0% | 18.2% | 30.5% |
Since Nashville is a concrete track, we shouldn’t be surprised to see… Justin Allgaier –King Kongcrete himself– at the top.
Allgaier won this race in 2022, one of his five victories at Nashville, Bristol and Dover, the three regular concrete tracks on the calendar. Even on difficult terrain, I’m not going to fight the model that puts it on top.
Despite the model’s optimism, however, Allgaier is not a betting value this week. He’s a +400 chance to win in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, meaning his 20.0% implied odds are above his 15.4% mark in simulations. So we’ll have to hope that Allgaier either extends his lead before Saturday or takes a bit of a breather from his dominance in particular.
Instead, the best value option in the field is a different regular option from Xfinity: Austin Hill (+2000).
Hill has never won on asphalt, but he does have a pair of average top-five finishes in three races at Dover, one of which was this spring. He also finished fourth at this race last year despite an early spin that left him a lap down.
In addition to Dover, Hill was in the top four in career average at Las Vegas and Darlington earlier this year, both mid-major tracks. He is always in the fight and that matters.
My model has Hill at an 8.2% chance to win, versus the implied 4.8%. It’s possible that’s too high. But with Hill’s form on similar tracks, I agree he’s the best target in the field.
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Which driver do you want to watch on Saturday in Nashville? Check out the latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for the full menu of options.
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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports wagers on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the opinions of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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