Back in December, during their surprising pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, we posed the question: What has happened to the Toronto Blue Jays? Six months later, without Ohtani, without Soto and with a 15-game deficit in the American League East, the question for Toronto is: What now?
It appears the Jays are sure sellers, but they will almost certainly wait as long as possible to choose a direction. The Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox are among the clubs that have seemingly turned their seasons around. Jays management, operating with a franchise-record payroll of $225 million, wants to give its underperforming roster every opportunity to do the same.
At the moment, such a reversal is difficult to imagine. The Blue Jays entered Wednesday ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA and 26th in runs per game. And it’s not that they have had bad luck. His projected win-loss record, based on run differential, was actually one game worse than his actual mark of 36-43.
So if the “what now?” The question isn’t appropriate yet, but it will soon be, as the deadline for changes is five weeks away. And if the Blue Jays turn out to be sellers, the questions will only multiply. Which players will they purge? How quickly can they restructure? And what will the concession of failure mean for the future of team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins?
Last October, after José Berríos’ controversial shutout in the fourth inning of an elimination game, Shapiro defended Atkins, telling reporters: “When evaluating, you’re not evaluating a series or even a season, and in “In the case of Ross, the whole of my work is undeniable.”
Shapiro also said: “We need to get better. Ross needs to improve, but he has done a good job and put us in a good position next year to be a very good team.” Well, the biggest acquisitions of the offseason without Ohtani and Soto were infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa and designated hitter Justin Turner. And free agent departures included third baseman Matt Chapman and right-hander Jordan Hicks.
The Blue Jays were coming off their third playoff appearance in four years under Shapiro and Atkins, who arrived in 2015. Their tenure has included a series of blockbuster moves, including trades for Berríos, Chapman and Robbie Ray and signings for Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. But his defensive overcorrection after the 2022 season, when they parted ways with veteran outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. along with young catcher Gabriel Moreno, continues to haunt this team.
Teoscar Hernández was a key part of the Blue Jays clubhouse and lineup from his arrival in 2017 until his final game in 2022. (Vaughn Ridley//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
Hernández and Gurriel were not only valuable hitters, but part of the soul of the team. Admittedly, the Blue Jays needed a greater left-handed presence, and trading Gurriel and Moreno for Daulton Varsho helped achieve that. But the team’s lack of run production has become such a problem that management sacrificed defense for offense by installing Spencer Horwitz at second and Davis Schneider in left.
Shapiro is signed through 2025, Atkins through 26. Ownership of Rogers Communications is notably removed from team operations. But if this season ends badly, it will be difficult for Shapiro to continue claiming that Atkins’ work is “undeniable.” And if the Blue Jays are likely to fire Atkins in October, why would they let him oversee their deadline moves in July?
Maybe because Shapiro and Atkins are very connected and because Shapiro is still very involved in the decision-making. But considering the disillusionment of the fan base and insufficient returns on investments, Shapiro could also be in danger. Payroll is part of it. George Springer’s weakened six-year, $150 million contract through 2026 looks increasingly problematic. But the Blue Jays also raised ticket prices to help finance a $300 million renovation of the Rogers Center, and spent $100 million on a new player development complex in Dunedin, Florida.
Ah, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The first question for the Blue Jays, if they actually sell, will be whether they will simply part with their potential free agents, particularly left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, reliever Yimi Garcia and catcher Danny Jansen, and then try to make the bulk of the players. current group in 2025.
The current group, of course, doesn’t guarantee such support. A good number of Jays fans have seen enough. But Shapiro and Atkins could argue they want to take their best shot in their final season with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette under club control.
A significant boost would be needed during the offseason. Guerrero and Bichette would likely leave after 2025 for nothing more than Draft picks. But by not selling, the Blue Jays could avoid a drop in attendance: The average home crowd has dropped by more than 4,000 this season, from 37,307 to 33,203. And Shapiro and Atkins could perhaps buy more time.
The problem with such a plan, of course, is that the Blue Jays could collapse in 2026. In February, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked their farm system 20th in the majors. Since then, top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann missed two months with inflammation of the ulnar nerve in his left elbow. Another top pitching prospect, left-hander Brandon Barriera, underwent a combination of Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure. And top hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
The state of the farm system, combined with the struggles of the major league club, offers a compelling reason for the Blue Jays to reorganize, if not outright rebuild. Guerrero and Bichette are not going to sign extensions if they have not already done so. By making them available for two pennant races, the Blue Jays could get better returns than if they waited until the offseason or the next trade deadline.
Guerrero, who entered Wednesday with an .882 OPS since May 1 and homers in three of his last five games, would be perhaps the most attractive slugger available if the Mets don’t trade Pete Alonso. Bichette has slumped all season and recently missed time with a right calf strain. But the Dodgers, in particular, could see him as an excellent candidate for a change of scenery.
If Shapiro and Atkins make their two stars available, then they will have to decide: do we want prospects with the most potential or talents who are close to being Major League ready and who will accelerate the team’s return to contention? And if they are open to those changes, why stop with Guerrero and Bichette? In a market hungry for starting pitchers, why not listen to Bassitt, who is under contract through 2025, and even Gausman, who is under contract through 2026?
The Blue Jays under Shapiro and Atkins have been buyers in recent years, not sellers. But in 2017 they turned Francisco Liriano into Hernández and Nori Aoki. In 2019 they turned Marcus Stroman into Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, the latter later swapped for Berríos.
The 2018 deadline was more of a farce. The Blue Jays moved six players and none of the 10 they acquired had a significant impact. That is the nature of these agreements. Some make it, others don’t. But if the Blue Jays don’t heat up quickly, it would behoove Shapiro and Atkins to consider anything. Or risk launching another uninspired product in 2025.
(Photo of Bo Bichette reacting to a strikeout: Kavin Mistry//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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