Major League Baseball’s trade deadline will be the focus of the industry for the next month. This year’s deadline is July 30, meaning St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has 27 days to decide what he’ll do. But, hey, who’s keeping score?
Mozeliak has said that the health of his club will be the deciding factor, and that’s what we’ll focus on in Part 1 of this email. As for Part 2, we’ll get into some early speculation about the trade.
Let’s do it.
What pitchers do you think the Cardinals will pursue near the deadline? I imagine they’re looking for a starter to fill the No. 4 or 5 spot left open by Steven Matz’s injury. — Brent M.
Which rental pitchers could the Cardinals sign at the deadline to slot into the rotation? — NA
Mozeliak has yet to declare his intentions ahead of the trade deadline (at least publicly), but he did provide a revealing statement to The Athletic in June.
“At the trade deadline, you can always turn to pitchers,” Mozeliak said. “There’s never been a year where you don’t go into the deadline looking for pitchers if you want to compete.”
The logical conclusion is to assume St. Louis will examine the pitching market, especially given Matz’s turbulent recovery process. Matz has been sidelined with lower back issues since May and his rehab has been halted and restarted twice. His current timeline would put him on track to return in early August, but the Cardinals can no longer give Matz’s health the benefit of the doubt. Andre Pallante has continually improved as the fifth starter and the Cardinals are fine with him in that role for now, but their lack of pitching depth beyond the 26-man roster is well-documented. It’s also been a major factor in why manager Oli Marmol has been conservative on pitch counts with his four remaining starters.
Erick Fedde seems like the type of pitcher the Cardinals would be looking for based on their recent history. (Duane Burleson//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
For these reasons, starting pitching depth should be a priority for Mozeliak. We know how the Cardinals operate at the deadline. They aren’t taking on big contracts or parting with top prospects. To their credit, while the names Mozeliak targeted at the 2021 and 2022 deadlines weren’t flashy (think Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Jordan Montgomery), they were effective. That same line of thinking will come into play here.
Erick Fedde, and his 3.23 ERA in 100 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox, is a prime trade target based on the Cardinals’ previous decisions at the deadline. Fedde signed a two-year, $15 million deal and is owed roughly $8 million in 2025. Tyler Anderson (17 starts, 3.03 ERA) is having a breakout year for the Los Angeles Angels, though he’s a bit more expensive than Fedde. Anderson has one year left on his contract after this season and is owed $13 million in 2025.
The Cardinals’ rotation features five right-handed pitchers, so adding a lefty like Anderson could be a goal. Other available left-handed pitchers on expiring contracts include Yusei Kikuchi (Toronto Blue Jays), Andrew Heaney (Texas Rangers) and Quintana (Mets). The problem is that it’s difficult to predict whether these pitchers will actually be available, as their teams haven’t committed to any decisions at the deadline.
We’ll see more legitimate options emerge as the month progresses. For now, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the Cardinals will target.
What do you think about the Paul Goldschmidt dilemma? I don’t see them re-signing him for next year because of his age, the cost and because so many players on the roster are capable of playing first base. Trading him would derail a playoff-bound team by giving up a key player. If you keep him through the end of the year, he’s just gone. My vote would be to trade him at the release deadline. — Mark S.
Do you think we trade Goldy and let Alec Burleson become the full-time first baseman? — Brandon S.
I don’t see any possible scenario in which the Cardinals trade Goldschmidt, and that’s without taking into account his full no-trade clause. They have a decision to make, but it won’t happen until the offseason. Goldschmidt’s season has been far from ideal (and he’d be the first to acknowledge that), but his impact on the locker room and organization is immeasurable. The Cardinals plan to compete in the second half. They won’t part ways with either Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado.
There is a conversation to be had about what the organization is thinking long-term at first base and whether they want to explore an extension, but that is expected to be addressed in the offseason. Plus, there is no surefire guarantee that Goldschmidt will be gone at the end of the year. In fact, I would argue the opposite. If the Cardinals approach Goldschmidt with an extension, he will gladly listen.
Is there any interest in a trade deadline deal that has more impact than a starting pitcher or a bullpen pitcher who takes the fourth or fifth spot? — Bill H.
What is the likelihood that the team will get on-field help at the deadline? How much of that could change based on the team’s performance over the next month? — Matthew G.
Pitching appears to be the priority, but we can’t rule out the position. The team’s performance will dictate how management views the outfield, something Mozeliak has already alluded to. As mentioned, the impending returns of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman will be critical.
The Cardinals have a plethora of outfielders, and the super-utility options of Edman and Brendan Donovan are an obvious plus when it comes to lineup construction. What the club sorely lacks is a right-handed power hitter. The regression of Arenado and Goldschmidt has emphasized that. Masyn Winn has been a top-notch leadoff hitter, but his job isn’t to hit for power, it’s to get on base. Outside of Willson Contreras, there aren’t many right-handed power hitters in the lineup. If the Cardinals are looking for outfield help, I’d expect them to emphasize offensive production over defense, and I’d expect it to come in the form of a rental right-handed hitter.
With the team’s recent resurgence and the success of younger players (i.e. Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, etc.), which players on the major league roster could we see used as trade bait? The obvious answer is Dylan Carlson, but who else is someone the Cardinals could part with to improve the team? — Jon T.
This is a question the Cardinals haven’t answered yet, but let’s try. Speculatively speaking, I’m sure the team would listen to offers for Carlson, as he figures to be the odd man out in the outfield when Edman and Nootbaar return. Perhaps Ivan Herrera will make that list while Pedro Pages continues to excel in the backup catcher role.
I think the bigger question is whether the rising success of some of their projected role players, like Michael Siani and Burleson, changes the organization’s view of other players once considered untouchable. Does Siani’s performance as one of the best center fielders in baseball this year change how the club views someone like Victor Scott II? How do they view Jordan Walker, who has spent more than two months in Triple-A? While neither player is on a major league roster, those prospects have major league service time and both were thought to be key pieces for the team’s future. Perhaps that’s still true, but it’s fair to question where those players stand given the outstanding performance of others.
Is rotation really a crucial need? Is a fifth starter more valuable to this team than another late-inning reliever? — Nick H.
I find this topic fascinating, as arguments can be made for both sides. For me, it depends on how management is structuring its roster. While they are in a solid position for now, there is no guarantee that the Cardinals will make the playoffs. Because of how playoff series are formatted, a fifth starter is more valuable in the regular season than in the postseason. Conversely, a high-end reliever reaches his highest value in the playoffs.
St. Louis has a lethal bullpen. Ryan Helsley is one of the three best closers in the league, and the setup staff of JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Fernandez has formed one of the most reliable back ends in baseball. What the Cardinals lack is the depth in the rotation to ensure the best chance of making the playoffs. For those reasons, I think addressing the rotation is a crucial need. Sonny Gray has stepped up as an ace, and Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas have formed solid supporting acts. Finding an arm to slot in between those three and Lance Lynn would bring much more comfort during the second half of the season.
(Top photo by Paul Goldschmidt: Michael Reaves//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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