By Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal
MLB Trade Deadline Watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
The Milwaukee Brewers, who lead their division with the third-best record in the National League despite needing pitching help, don’t seem inclined to fix that hole through big spending or trading their top prospects at the deadline. according to people familiar with the club’s thinking.
Rival evaluators like the Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders, which could be used to make deals, but Milwaukee values that depth a lot.
As a contender in recent years, the Brewers have traditionally gone about acquiring help at the trade deadline with a measured approach, mindful of preserving their potential capital. They view themselves as a small-market club that aims to achieve success year after year by relying on younger, cost-controlled players. While they are not alone in that thinking, the Brewers follow the plan like it is their creed.
This summer is expected to be no different, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking, despite a clear need because its pitching staff is not as strong as it has been in recent years.
“He’s the model,” Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins said. “To have sustained success here, things are done a certain way. It’s hard to argue against it because of the consistent success they’ve had. Therefore, it is easy to trust some of the decisions that are being made. “They also have a pretty good understanding of what certain types of moves can do in a locker room because of what has been done in the past.”
Trading Josh Hader to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline was a huge blow to team morale. That deal also involved the Brewers getting two major league relievers (Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet) to try to absorb the loss of an All-Star closer, as well as two top prospects, one of whom (Esteury Ruiz) was later included. in a three-team trade for All-Star catcher William Contreras. Milwaukee is always operating on different paths.
The Brewers’ starting rotation ranks near the bottom of the MLB in production based on pure innings and FanGraphs’ version of WAR. Their bullpen is quite strong, however, rival evaluators wonder if usage rates dating back to last year could cause burnout with some key relievers like Elvis Peguero and Joel Payamps. Despite all that, league sources said Milwaukee believes its way of doing things remains sustainable.
While the Brewers’ staff is in need of reinforcements (and will likely add them from the outside in some capacity), sources said most of the help is expected to come internally via pitchers returning from injuries.
Milwaukee expects closer Devin Williams (stress fractures in back), who has yet to pitch this season, to return at some point next month. Before the end of July, the Brewers could also see the return of left-handed starter DL Hall (knee sprain) and right-handed starter Joe Ross (lower back strain). Right-hander JB Bukauskas (right shoulder inflammation) is another name club officials seem hopeful of returning at some point.
The return of Devin Williams should give the Brewers a boost. (Eric Hartline/USA Today)
The Brewers have had to operate differently in 2024 — they traded Corbin Burnes in the offseason and Brandon Woodruff isn’t expected to pitch this season — and their methods have worked. Freddy Peralta is clearly their No. 1 starter. Behind him, the club’s brass has liked what they’ve gotten from 25-year-old Tobias Myers.
Milwaukee has used Bryse Wilson and Colin Rea to cover massive innings and at times protected them with starters. They recently acquired veteran Dallas Keuchel, and their front office has shown an ability to tackle turnaround projects in recent years (Julio Teherán is an example from a season ago).
Another point of reference for their approach to the deadline would be the smaller trades the Brewers made in 2019, acquiring left-hander Drew Pomeranz and starter Jordan Lyles, who both had ERAs starting at 5 at the time. Pomeranz dominated out of Milwaukee’s bullpen, racking up 45 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings, while Lyles went 1-for-7 down the stretch.
The Brewers have to take calculated risks. Hoskins was sidelined all of last season while recovering from a torn ACL in his left knee. He signed a two-year, $34 million contract in January and was “caught off guard” when the Brewers traded Burnes. But Hoskins knew Milwaukee’s track record when it came to pitching development, and he was impressed by how much continuity the Brewers maintained with their coaching staff once Craig Counsell left and Pat Murphy was promoted to manager. The Burnes deal has also produced an immediate impact with Joey Ortiz already playing like an All-Star third baseman.
“There’s a lot of understanding here about the different kinds of nuances that go into this whole operation,” Hoskins said. “You always hope to get better at the deadline because you’ve put yourself in a position to be a buyer. But at the same time, you feel pretty good about the group we have here. We’re just getting healthier. We should get Devin back. It’s easy to trust what’s going on because of the results.”
Why Bo Bichette and the Dodgers are not the ideal couple
Bo Bichette appears to be the ideal player for the Los Angeles Dodgers if the Toronto Blue Jays decide to trade him. There is only one problem: his defense at shortstop.
Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, dating back to his days with the Tampa Bay Rays, is a stickler for defense. He thinks about the Dodgers’ biggest position player acquisitions: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline. They were all strong defenders.
Bichette, 26, is no longer here.
Rival evaluators say Bichette can get careless at shortstop and sometimes rush. He has also been on the disabled list with leg injuries three times in the last calendar year, perhaps contributing to his reduced range.
The most important defensive metrics paint a grim picture. Bichette entered Sunday ranked 23rd among shortstops in Outs Above Average and 28th in Defensive Runs Saved. The previous two seasons, he ranked 30th and 28th in OAA and 33rd and 12th in DRS, respectively.
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
Bichette’s offensive woes may be carrying over to his defense: His .623 OPS entering Sunday was the eighth-lowest in the majors. It’s also possible that he is frustrated with the Blue Jays’ performance and would benefit from a move to an established power. With the Dodgers, he would lengthen a heavy lineup and allow Betts to move back to second base.
Betts’ defense was also an issue before he went on the disabled list with a broken left hand. But his main problem was his pitching ability, and the Dodgers believe that can be fixed. Betts’ replacement, Miguel Rojas, is an above-average defender, and at 35 is enjoying one of his best offensive seasons. Gavin Lux at second base is having a good defensive rating, but contributes little offensively.
A middle infield with Bichette and Betts would be dynamic, and for the right acquisition cost, the Dodgers would surely jump. But the Blue Jays aren’t sure they’ll sell, much less sell cheap, for Bichette, who will be under club control until next season. With no other quality shortstops expected to be available, the Dodgers may have to find the best combination of Betts, Rojas and Lux in their middle infield.
For all the talk about the Dodgers finding a shortstop and adding an outfielder, their biggest need might be in a familiar place: the rotation.
The Dodgers face uncertainty with virtually all of their starters. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are on the injured list. James Paxton is currently healthy but frequently injured. Bobby Miller has been inconsistent since coming off the injured list.
Tyler Glasnow, a few starts shy of his career high innings, will likely need a break at some point. The same could be said for Gavin Stone, who went from depth piece to the Dodgers’ starter with the lowest ERA. Rookie Landon Knack shows potential but was never meant to be an anchor.
In short, the Dodgers have many options, but few certainties to start a postseason game. That’s where White Sox 6-foot-6 left-hander Garrett Crochet could come into the picture.
The Athletic reported last week that the White Sox recently assigned top scouts to evaluate prospects in the farm systems of the Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners. Each of those teams has expressed interest in several White Sox players. And the Dodgers, like other clubs looking for rotation help, are intrigued by Crochet, according to sources briefed on his wish list.
Crochet, in his first season as a starter, is unlikely to spend the entire season pitching consistently. But the Dodgers could add him to their mix of potential weapons for October and determine which pitchers will handle which innings later.
The outfield also remains an area of need for the Dodgers, even with strong recent performances from Andy Pages, Jason Heyward and Miguel Vargas, and the good hitting of James Outman at Triple-A.
Ideally, the Dodgers would want to add an everyday outfielder who could hit seventh when Mookie Betts and Max Muncy are healthy. That way, they could group Pages and Heyward at the eighth spot and use Gavin Lux or Miguel Rojas at the ninth.
It’s no surprise that Tanner Scott is a popular name on the trade market. And it’s no surprise that, considering the deadline is almost a month away, rival clubs are reporting that the Miami Marlins want a lot for their left-handed closer.
Scott, 29, isn’t a lock to make the jump from the bottom Marlins to a real contender. His strikeout and walk rate is at the lowest level of his career, and although his ERA entering Sunday was 1.50, his expected ERA was 3.40. But several major clubs, including the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Dodgers, have expressed some level of interest, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Pair Scott with the Orioles’ Craig Kimbrel, the Yankees’ Clay Holmes or the Dodgers’ Evan Phillips, and each of those clubs would become more formidable in the late innings. The same goes for the Phillies, who already have multiple ninth-inning options and could use Scott alongside left-hander Jose Alvarado. Scott earned two saves against the Phillies over the weekend, both times pitching perfect innings.
The Marlins are virtually certain to trade Scott, and the limited supply of quality relievers should allow them to get a good return, even though he is a potential free agent. It’s just a matter of which team will accept his price and how soon.
(Top photo by Rhys Hoskins: Stacy Revere//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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