In the first half of last season, Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte ranked 11th in the National League in WAR, better than anyone at his position. However, he did not make the All-Star team.
Fans voted for Luis Arráez of the Miami Marlins to be the NL starter at second base, players voted for Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves to be the backup and the Diamondbacks were well represented with three other picks at Stars game. Mars had the distinction of being among the annual snubs.
And inevitably, there will be snubs again this year. The league announced its first updates to the All-Star voting on Monday, and Marte, who now ranks third in the National League in WAR, best among second basemen, again does not lead the fan vote.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but here are three All-Star-worthy players in each league who, whether because of a full field or quirks in the Draft process, seem especially vulnerable to being abandoned. outside.
National League
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers, 2B
The two best second basemen in the National League (and they are not particularly close) have been Marte and Turang. They lead in fWAR at their positions (by more than half a win), and bWAR has them among the top four players at any position in the National League (along with Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani).
But Luis Arráez of the San Diego Padres leads the league in hits and batting average, and is currently the top vote-getter at second base. If that holds, the player ballot, which chooses a substitute at each position, will surely choose one of Marte or Turang, but including both on the team could be difficult considering that the Commissioner’s Office has room for only two players from general position in each one. league, and you may need those spots to find a representative from each team.
Francisco Lindor
New York Mets, SS
One reason it might be difficult to get two backup second basemen on the National League roster is that the league is loaded with deserving shortstops, and Philadelphia Phillies fans are filling the ballot boxes to make the roster. even tighter.
Even with Betts out of the picture due to his broken hand, the National League’s top 15 players by fWAR include four other shortstops, and that list doesn’t include Trea Turner, who is now second to Betts in the voting. from the fans (which means Turner is in a decent position to end up starting the game).
If Turner makes the team as a starter, the player ballot could choose between Cincinnati Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz and Brewers veteran Willy Adames as the leading candidates to be his backup. In theory, there would be room for both, but shortstop Ezequiel Tovar would be an ideal representative of the Colorado Rockies and Lindor (10th in the league in fWAR, just behind Adames) has been the Mets’ best player.
It will be difficult to get all the deserving shortstops, which could open the door for Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo or Rockies starter Cal Quantrill to end up on the team.
logan webb
San Francisco Giants, SP
Logan Webb’s excellent season may not merit an All-Star award. (Darren Yamashita/USA Today)
The National League is overloaded with All-Star quality starting pitchers. Webb is a true ace coming off a second place finish in the Cy Young Award. He ranks second in the league in innings, sixth in aggregate win probability, and has a spectacular 3.02 ERA, which is 13th best in the league and second best on his own team!
Nine National League starters have a 2.99 ERA or better (and will be 10 once Atlanta Braves starter Reynaldo López has enough innings to qualify again), and 21 rank in the top 10 in at least one of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts per nine or win probability added. Four starters from the Phillies, three from the Los Angeles Dodgers and three more from the Braves deserve serious consideration for the All-Star Game, plus the league could find its best representatives among the Mets (Luis Severino), the Rockies (Quantrill ), the Marlins (Ryan Weathers, Tanner Scott), Pittsburgh Pirates (Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes) and Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin among others) need to be pitchers. There are also a handful of non-closers (Phillies’ Matt Strahm, Brewers’ Bryan Hudson, Reds’ Fernando Cruz) who make a compelling case for inclusion.
Each roster has room for only 12 pitchers. Some extra arms will serve as injury replacements and backups for the guys pitching Sunday before the break, but even so, there could be some starters with exceptionally low ERAs who don’t make the NL team.
american league
Rafael Devers
Boston Red Sox, 3B
Already a two-time All-Star, Devers is on pace for the highest OPS of his career, and his wRC+ and slugging percentage are the highest among American League third basemen. He is tenth in the American League in WAR.
But two things could keep Devers from making the team: depth at his position and a disappointing vote total from Red Sox fans.
Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez is having another elite season and takes the fan vote so far. Devers is third behind Baltimore Orioles rookie Jordan Westburg. No other Red Sox player ranks in the top five at any position. Left fielder Jarren Durán isn’t even in the top 20 among outfielders, and he ranks sixth in the league in WAR (among all position players).
Certainly, Devers could still make the team as a backup on the player ballot, but Westburg is a compelling alternative (2.4 WAR for Devers, 2.3 for Westburg), and if the league has room for an additional third baseman, it could find that Isaac Paredes (2.0 WAR, 138 wRC+) is the best possible representative of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Jeffers, C.
Minnesota Twins
By WAR, each league has two standouts at the catcher position. In the American League, they are Adley Rutschman of the Orioles and Salvador Pérez of the Kansas City Royals. In the National League, they are William Contreras of the Brewers and Will Smith of the Dodgers. It would make sense to have those four as starters and reserves in each league.
But All-Star teams often feature three catchers, and Jeffers has also been tremendously good for the Twins. His offensive numbers are comparable to Rutschman’s, and he’s as good as any potential Twins representative (aside from, perhaps, Carlos Correa, who could be crowded out by American League depth at shortstop). It would also be a great story for a long-overlooked player to have his moment in the All-Star spotlight.
However, this might not be a three-catcher year for either league. Each had three All-Star catchers last year, but each league had only two the year before, and they split up in 2021 (two for the American League and four for the National League). Assuming Rutschman and Perez are chosen as the American League’s top two catchers, the league office will have only two more bench spots to fill with at-large candidates, and there are currently five American League third basemen and five American League shortstops with a higher WAR than Jeffers. . If he makes it, Jeffers would be one of the best stories on any of this year’s All-Star rosters, but it might be difficult to justify placing him ahead of Paredes or New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Seth Lugo
Kansas City Royals, SP
This is shaping up to be a career year for the 34-year-old Lugo. He leads the American League in wins, is second in innings and fifth in ERA (with an All-Star caliber of 2.40). He’s also on track to help lead the Royals to the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.
At first glance, he’s a shoo-in for the All-Star Game.
But the American League’s pitching leaders are a tough group this season. Luis Gil of the Yankees and Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty of the Detroit Tigers are the only ones to rank in the top 10 in both ERA and strikeouts per nine. The leader in expected ERA (Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox) ranks 14th in actual ERA.
There will be a lot of personal preference involved in American League pitching selections, and at least five relievers (Clay Holmes of the Yankees, Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians, Mason Miller of the Oakland Athletics, Kirby Yates of the Texas Rangers, Andres Muñoz of the Seattle Mariners), perhaps more so, have strong All-Star resumes, potentially reducing the number of starters who will make the team.
Depending on how players vote (the player ballot decides the majority of All-Star pitchers), teams with multiple pitching candidates (Mariners, Tigers and Royals among them) could find that there isn’t room for all of their standouts. If there’s room for just one Royals starter, Cole Ragans (102 strikeouts, 3.14 ERA) would have as strong a claim as Lugo.
(Devers top photo: Elsa//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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