The first three starters in the Atlanta Braves‘ rotation have been among the best in baseball through the first half of the season, and the team’s high-powered offense has come alive after a widespread slump that lasted more than 40 games and was the main reason they fell as many as 10 1/2 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.
But even though the Braves cut Philadelphia’s lead a few games and feel pretty good about their chances whenever Max Fried, Chris Sale or Reynaldo López start, they have a couple of holes in their lineup and a sharp decline in rear part of the rotation. . They need to address two areas before the trade deadline: corner outfielder and starting pitcher.
Outfielder Adam Duvall and shortstop Orlando Arcia have struggled at the plate all season, especially lately, as Duvall hit .124 in the past 30 days entering Thursday and Arcia hit .129, and they have the two worst OPS of anyone. the qualified players in that period: Duvall .359 and Arcia .397. Oh!
The Braves are willing to go with Arcia because of his strong defense and the energy he brings to the dugout and clubhouse. They have a decent backup (Zack Short) and an excellent shortstop prospect (Nacho Alvarez Jr.) who is impressing at Triple-A.
But the corner outfield is another matter. Duvall was signed to team with Jarred Kelenic in left field, but after right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending knee injury in late May and after a recent hamstring strain sidelined center fielder Michael Harris II indefinitely, the Braves began using Kelenic and Duvall every day with either Forrest Wall or Cleveland Guardians castoff Ramón Laureano.
Kelenic has thrived in center and in the leadoff spot in Harris’ absence, but Duvall’s slump worsened with exposure to right-handed pitching: He was 9-for-97 (.093) with 37 strikeouts against righties through Thursday, with an OPS of .242. Against them he was the worst in the majors among hitters with more than 30 at-bats against right-handers.
The Braves can live with Charlie Morton’s inconsistency in the fourth spot in the rotation, but they need to add a starting pitcher, even with Ian Anderson expected to return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the All-Star break. They can’t count on the prospects and others they’ve used in the back of the rotation, or Anderson, after the right-hander missed a season and a half. They also know that as fantastic as Sale and Lopez have been, Sale hasn’t been healthy for a full season since 2019, and Lopez has already pitched more innings (79 1/3) than in any season since 2019, his last full season as a starter.
With those needs in mind, here are a few trade proposals I came up with, with opinions on each from our resident expert, former MLB general manager Jim Bowden. – David O’Brien
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The Braves would add another big bat to their order in Rooker, who had 30 homers, a .488 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ in 2023, and has been even better this season with 14 homers, a .506 slugging percentage and a 145 OPS+ through Wednesday, albeit with an AL-leading 97 strikeouts. It would make Atlanta better now, and with three more years of contractual control, it would provide insurance if Acuña has any issues in 2025 returning from ACL surgery, as he did in 2022 returning from his first ACL surgery. And if the Braves decide not to exercise the option on designated hitter Marcell Ozuna’s contract for 2025 or not to extend it beyond that, Rooker is an experienced DH.
The Braves would be giving up a nice pitching prospect in Kuehler, a second-rounder in the 2023 Draft who has a 2.21 ERA in his first 13 minor league starts (all in Low-A), and a top-10 organizational prospect in Guanipa, an 18-year-old burner who signed for $2.5 million last year out of Venezuela and projects as an MLB center fielder. Expósito, 23, has turned heads with the best season of his career so far at High-A Rome, hitting .286 with 11 homers, 22 stolen bases and an .858 OPS.
Bow: Oakland should jump on this trade and call a press conference before A’s general manager David Forst gets off the phone with Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. If the A’s could get Kuehler outright for Rooker, I think this proposed trade would be a win for them, but also getting Guanipa makes it a no-brainer. Get Exposito out of the deal; Oakland doesn’t even need him in this proposal to get a deal done.
For the Braves, it will feel like deja vu from three years ago, when they acquired Jorge Soler from Kansas City at the trade deadline. Rooker will add significantly more power to their lineup, and while I don’t love the 29-year-old defensively, Atlanta has Duvall to play defense late in the game. The Braves are so good defensively that they can have a below-average defender in the outfield and still win. Rooker could help them make a playoff push by lengthening their lineup, but I actually like the Oakland side of this trade proposal a lot more than the Atlanta side, especially long-term.
White Sox get: LHP Riley Frey
Pham has big-game credentials and is still a pro-level hitter at age 36, as evidenced by his .345 OBP and 109 OPS+ in 45 games entering Thursday. He can bring the coveted, elusive “upside” to a team that’s hard to define but players know when it comes. One big plus for Atlanta: He’s on a low-cost, one-year deal, so the outlay won’t be too much — in prospects or salary — to get him as a rental player. Pham has hit .313 with six homers and an .846 OPS in 31 postseason games. That included 16 hits in 14 games over Arizona’s final three postseason series in 2023, with a homer in each of them, including the World Series.
Frey, a left-hander with a funky delivery from the low-arm slot, has impressed since the Braves selected him in the 19th round of the 2023 draft out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He has a 1.82 ERA in 12 games (eight starts) at two Class A levels this season, with 46 strikeouts and 15 walks in 59 1/3 innings.
Bowden: A fair deal for both parties and the idea works for both teams. Pham has been traded at the trade deadline in each of the last two years, so we might as well make it three in a row. He has brought a unique edge to every locker room he has been in and is a winning player. He’s at the tail end of his career, but he can still hit for power and steal bases. I like the fit and prospect price for Atlanta. From the White Sox perspective, they have to trade Pham to open the door for their young players to develop.
White Sox get: RHP Garrett Baumann, SS Mario Baez
After a year in the KBO, Erick Fedde is back in the majors and putting together a career year. (Lon Horwedel/USA Today)
Fedde is thriving in his first season back in the majors after a year in South Korea. The 31-year-old was seventh in MLB in innings pitched (100 1/3) and 14th in the American League with a 3.23 ERA after his start Wednesday against the Dodgers. He is under contract through 2025 and has a team-friendly salary of $7.5 million next year, and Fedde would provide some security heading into the offseason with Max Fried eligible for free agency, Charlie Morton considering retirement and Spencer Strider returning from elbow surgery and his status uncertain for the first part of the 2025 season.
Baumann, a 6-foot-8 right-hander selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft out of Hagerty High near Orlando, has a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts at Low A with 44 strikeouts and 13 walks in 59 innings. Báez is a 17-year-old shortstop prospect with outstanding speed, a plus arm and a good glove. He hit in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut last summer, but has struggled with the bat in the Florida Complex League. He is among several shortstops among the Braves’ top 30 prospects.
Bowden: I agree that the Braves really need one more veteran starter, not because I don’t think one of their young starters will step up and fill the fifth spot in the rotation, but because I think the Braves need to protect themselves from injuries to their veteran starters in the second half of the season. Fedde is a solid mid-rotation starter who has figured out how to do it and delivers quality innings that will be crucial in August and September. If I were the White Sox, though, I’d expect to get a better pitching prospect in return, considering Fedde’s extra year of control. So, start the conversation with Kuehler and finish it with Baumann and Baez, and then we can write the press release.
Rays get: RHP Garrett Baumann, OF Luis Guanipa
If the Rays decide to trade him, there’s a lot to like about Eflin, starting with 63 strikeouts and just six walks in 81 1/3 innings, the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. While his strikeout rate is significantly lower than the best of his seven years with the Phillies through 2022, so is his walk rate, a major-league-leading 0.7 per nine innings. Eflin has a modest 4.20 ERA in 14 starts, but he’s averaged nearly six innings per outing and would be a great fit for the back end of Atlanta’s rotation. He’s under contract through 2025, a plus for a team that could lose starters Fried and Morton to free agency and retirement, respectively. Eflin’s three-year, $40 million contract includes an $18 million salary in 2025, slightly higher than ideal but $2 million less than what the Braves have paid Morton in each of the past three seasons. If the Rays can move all that salary, they could also reduce the cost of returning him in a trade.
Bow: If I were the Braves, as much as I’d like to add Eflin to the rotation, I don’t like the $18 million salary in 2025 because of the financial exposure the rest of my roster already has. So unless the Rays are willing to take on some of the salary — which is unlikely because other teams would almost certainly absorb the full amount in a trade — I’d probably focus more on a trade with the White Sox to acquire Fedde, who is much more affordable at $7.5 million in 2025.
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(Top photo by Brent Rooker: Godofredo A. Vásquez / KeynoteUSA)
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