By all indications, this is what the Dodgers were supposed to be. They woke up Thursday morning with the largest division lead in all of baseball, along with the best odds of returning to the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Only the Phillies have scored more runs. Only four clubs have a lower effectiveness. The most stellar team in baseball lives up to its expectations.
Still, there are questions to ask and surprises to raise. After all, this club just lost its first home series to division foe the Arizona Diamondbacks since 2018 with a pair of losses.
You had questions. Here is Part 1 of this batch of mailbag questions, which have been condensed for clarity.
The lineup’s top five hitters likely represent MLB’s best first-half lineup, at least by cumulative or average OPS. But the bottom half of the lineup, with the 6 or 7 players that normally appear there, has to be one of the worst 3 to 5 in all of baseball. It is awful. It should worry Andrew Friedman and the board. – Brands.
This addresses one of the most concerning issues of the first few months of this Dodgers season. No baseball team entered Wednesday with a lower OPS in the bottom three of the order than the Dodgers (.553). Sure, the Dodgers are by far the best in the top two spots (1.012) and the third-best in spots 3-6 (.785), but the slide presents a real problem.
Andy Pages has cooled off after a good start. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today)
How it is solved is a different topic. Part of this is that the Dodgers are hoping for positive regression from guys like Gavin Lux, Kiké Hernández and Chris Taylor, and production from a now-healthy Jason Heyward. Andy Pages has taken a slight step back after leading much of that group in his first month in the majors. Perhaps Miguel Vargas can provide some offensive production as well, but that would likely require a longer stretch of play.
Ultimately, it could be an area of need at the trade deadline. They are two bad months, but they are enough for a worrying trend. The Dodgers have already gotten better production from Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes than they did a year ago. Maybe they’ll add another right-handed bat if Pages or Vargas don’t emerge?
The Dodgers are 0-11 when the opposing team scores more than 5 runs. How much concern is there about the Dodgers’ apparent inability to win higher-scoring games despite this lineup? They will have to win in many ways if they want to win the World Series. —Dan G.
Is this something? Probably not. This is nothing? Maybe not?
Yes, the Dodgers have yet to win a game in 12 tries (after a 6-0 loss on Wednesday) when they have allowed five or more runs. The team that arrived on Wednesday with the best winning percentage in this type of game? The Milwaukee Brewers, 9-14 (.391) when the opponent scores 5+. Teams don’t win those games often, even with some of the best offenses in baseball.
But no team in baseball has had fewer games in which it allowed five or more runs than the Dodgers. On the other hand, only the Phillies have produced more games as an offense with five or more runs (29) than the Dodgers (28).
The offense is clearly capable of putting up eye-catching totals. The pitching staff is among the best at preventing runs. They have yet to sequence a game in which they score enough to make up for the rare mediocre shooting night.
How much clue does Vargas have this time? —Jacob N.
Vargas still has a limited role. He has started twice in the five days since he was recalled, and it’s hard to imagine him making many starts against right-handed pitching.
The Dodgers don’t have to make a decision until Max Muncy comes off the disabled list, which should be next week. So, one would think, the decision is between returning Vargas to the minors or finding some closure with Chris Taylor (who, according to the organization, is not dealing with any injuries while he works out his issues). Manager Dave Roberts said he sat down with Taylor last week in San Francisco to talk about Taylor’s 6-for-61 start (.098). The coach has long been in the former All-Star’s corner and praised how he handled things.
“Man, he’s responsible,” Roberts said this week. “He works hard. He doesn’t make excuses and I think the swing is getting better. So now the question is what’s best for CT as far as how we can get him the best track to get back to a normal rhythm. I haven’t done that because there are others guys that I think should have opportunities to play. But when I find opportunities, I try to include it and we’ll see how it develops next week.”
How much time do the Dodgers give Lux to fix everything at the plate and in the field? — Vincent P.
Roberts has repeatedly said that they are looking for Gavin Lux to make approximately 150 plate appearances before making a serious evaluation of him. After all, he is coming off a major injury; Last month he was candid about the mental obstacles that still remain in his rehabilitation. He entered Thursday with 141 plate appearances, batting .203 with a .558 OPS after a two-hit night (including a triple) on Tuesday and a double on Wednesday. The surface numbers haven’t been very good. Advanced metrics are not so encouraging.
But in the last two weeks, Lux has hit four extra-base hits. She has shown at least some signs of pacing. Roberts has praised this version of Lux, even if it’s not the same version the Dodgers last saw. Los Angeles has been able to survive for now, and Lux, finding an offensive rhythm is still the cleanest way for all of this to resolve itself.
On the field, Lux has been a plus. Concerns about his pitching seemingly disappeared as soon as he moved off shortstop. Lux got good grades and has yet to make an error at second base.
Have the Dodgers asked James Outman to work on a specific fit in OKC? -Jay O.
If anything, the biggest adjustment the Dodgers have for Outman is not worrying about adjustments. As I wrote when Outman was drafted, the 27-year-old outfielder often seemed like someone so obsessed with his swing mechanics and approach that they left him in the middle of the plate. The most important prescription they’ve given him is for Outman to get as many regular at-bats as possible and generate some positive traction.
How much more rope does Mookie have in the SS? —Andrew C.
It seems enough. Mookie Betts’ public frustrations after a pair of errors last week aside, the Dodgers have been impressed with his work there. They already think that he has been more than playable. They are convinced that he will continue to improve.
The Dodgers have already shown a propensity to seek additional offense at the position, even if it means sacrificing elite defense. Corey Seager was a solid defensive shortstop, but the extra value his bat brought to the position made him very valuable. Trea Turner’s greatest value at the position came through his bat. That’s why the organization was prepared to give Lux the reins of the position in recent years.
So aside from an obvious trade target (like Willy Adames or Bo Bichette) being available, it’s safe to assume Betts will come up short. As good as Miguel Rojas’ glove is, there is certainly a level of concern when it comes to putting the 35-year-old out of position every day.
(Photo by Mookie Betts and Gavin Lux: Harry How//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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