With less than two months until the start of the college football season on Aug. 24, it’s time to start thinking about which teams to back and which to count out when it comes to regular-season win totals.
In recent years, teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and others have proven they are safe bets to get at least nine or ten wins per season.
But with the SEC getting even tougher thanks to the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, and the Big Ten adding Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA, how many of those leagues’ traditional powerhouses can we really trust to hit the Over in their preseason totals?
While it’s hard to trust teams as well-equipped as the Bulldogs and Buckeyes given their schedules this season, below are three teams we think are good bets to surpass their win totals.
Note: For a team to exceed its published total, it must win the designated number of games during the regular season (excluding conference championships, bowl games, and playoff games).
Utah Utes (Big 12): Over 9.5 wins
Utah Utes 2024 win total (odds available as of July 2)
DraftKings | MGM bet | FanDuel | |
On | 9.5 (-135) | 9.5 (-135) | 9.5 (-162) |
Low | 9.5 (+115) | 9.5 (+110) | 9.5 (+132) |
Best Odds: Over 9.5 (-135) DraftKings/BetMGM
Coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utes won nine regular-season games in two of the past three seasons, but injuries kept the 2023 team from capturing three straight Pac-12 championships.
Last year, three Pac-12 teams finished in the top 11 of the final KeynoteUSA poll: No. 2 Washington, No. 7 Oregon and No. 11 Arizona. That trio accounted for three of Utah’s four regular-season losses, and Oregon State (another team the Utes won’t face this season) handed them their only other regular-season loss.
Following its move to the Big 12, the only one of those four former Pac-12 teams that Utah faces this year is Arizona (Sept. 28 at Rice-Eccles Stadium). The softer schedule alone might be reason enough to bet on a big season for Utah, which hosts Arizona and avoids two of the best teams in its new conference: Kansas and Kansas State.
Utah Over 9.5 at -135 or lower isn’t cheap, but there’s still plenty of value here. The case for Utah reaching 10 regular-season wins starts with talented seventh-year QB Cam Rising. The veteran quarterback led Utah to back-to-back Rose Bowl berths following the 2021 and 2022 seasons and returns after missing 2023 due to injuries. He leads an offense that will also welcome back star tight end Brant Kuithe (second-team All-Pac-12 in ’19, ’20 and ’21 before injuries the past two seasons) and veteran RB Micah Bernard.
All of that offensive firepower, plus Whittingham’s always-stingy defense, should be more than enough for Utah to earn this win and contend for the Big-12 title.
Virginia Cavaliers (ACC): Over 4.5 wins
Virginia Cavaliers 2024 win total (odds available as of July 2)
DraftKings | MGM bet | FanDuel | |
On | 4.5 (+100) | 4.5 (-110) | 4.5 (-110) |
Low | 4.5 (-120) | 4.5 (-110) | 4.5 (-110) |
Best Odds: Over 4.5 (+100) DraftKings
Virginia? Yes, Virginia.
Under former Clemson assistant Tony Elliott, who is entering his third season as head coach in Charlottesville, the Cavaliers won a total of just six games in 2022 (3-7, 1-6 ACC) and 2023 (3-9, 2-6 ACC).
But last year’s team was unlucky in several close losses, and this year’s manageable schedule, plus the return of promising sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea, make it easy to see Virginia winning five or more games during the 2024 regular season.
Performance in close games is hard to predict, but generally speaking, if a team wins all of its one-possession games in one season, it’s likely to lose a few of them the following year. Fortunately for Virginia, which went 2-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer in 2023, the opposite is also true, which is good news for the Cavaliers’ 2024 outlook.
Last season, UVA nearly defeated NC State, Louisville and James Madison. Those teams combined to win 30 games, and the Cardinals and Wolfpack both finished the season ranked in the top 25. But losses in those games, as well as close losses to Miami and BC, were a big reason the Cavs finished 2023 with a record of just 3-9.
Colandrea, who started seven games as a freshman, isn’t assured of the starting job over senior Tony Muskett, who also played a big role a year ago. But the sophomore should have the edge thanks to his high potential as a dual threat (200-plus rushing yards in 2023). As long as Colandrea, who threw nine interceptions on just 246 attempts last year, can limit turnovers, this offense should keep Virginia in most games even without last year’s best weapon, star receiver Malik Washington.
The final reason for Virginia to be over 4.5 points is its schedule: The Cavaliers begin the year with winnable games against Richmond and Wake Forest, followed by games against Maryland, Coastal Carolina and Boston College. In theory, Virginia has a realistic chance to get three or four wins during that span.
While the schedule after the BC game on Oct. 5 will be much tougher, home games later in the year against North Carolina and SMU, plus a trip to Pitt, will give Colandrea and company a realistic chance to reach at least five wins.
SMU Mustangs (ACC): Over 8.5 wins
SMU Mustangs 2024 win total (odds available as of July 2)
DraftKings | MGM bet | FanDuel | |
On | 8 (-125) | 8.5 (+110) | 8.5 (+116) |
Low | 8 (+105) | 8.5 (-130) | 8.5 (-142) |
Best Odds: Over 8.5 (+116) FanDuel
Continuing in the ACC, let’s take a look at SMU, which is one of three teams joining the conference for the 2024 campaign.
While both Cal and Stanford are expected to struggle in their first seasons after leaving the Pac-12, SMU has high expectations after an 11-3 (8-0 AAC) finish in 2023, the Mustangs’ final year in the American Athletic Conference.
Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone was outstanding in 2023, with 3,197 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions on 344 pass attempts. Stone, a third-team All-AAC selection in 2023, has a chance to take his new conference by storm if he can build on his impressive showing from last year, when he threw for 17 touchdowns (with just one interception) in SMU’s final seven regular-season games.
However, SMU proved in the 2023 AAC conference title game against Tulane that it was no one-man team, beating the Green Wave 26-14 with backup quarterback Kevin Jennings playing in place of the injured Stone, who also missed the bowl game loss to Boston College.
The Mustangs not only have the talent, but also the favorable schedule to make a lot of noise in their first season in the ACC.
After non-conference matchups with Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU and TCU, SMU begins its conference play with a home game against Florida State on Sept. 28, followed by a road game against Louisville on Oct. 5. After that, it could potentially play wins down the stretch against Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia and Cal.
Even if SMU loses its toughest nonconference game, at home against Dallas-area rival TCU, and loses matchups with FSU and Louisville, it would still have a realistic chance to get to 9-3.
The combination of an underrated quarterback and a schedule packed with winnable (though not easy) matchups makes the Mustangs as valuable a bet in the preseason win totals market as any.
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