By now, the NIL shortage that has been hampering Mike Neighbors’ Arkansas women’s basketball program is well known.
Lack of cash appears to be a reason for at least some of the mass exodus of talented players from this team this offseason, as indicated by a social media post by former Razorback Taliah Scott.
Replenishing the roster in such a NIL-constrained climate is not easy, but one way to work around the limitations is to take advantage of government bureaucracy that restricts the NIL money international student-athletes can earn while in the U.S. with a F- 1 visa.
Specifically, a law prohibits them from working off campus, and the most common way to earn money through NIL is through active work, such as posting on social media or shilling for a local business. In the past, this has severely limited what foreigners can earn because NIL collectives make a lot of money from promoters seeking marketing done on behalf of their companies.
While this law may seem unfair to international student-athletes, it also presents a money-saving strategy for programs to sign quality players who do not drain their collective NIL funds. That would explain why Neighbors has been signing Europeans lately, inking new Razorbacks from Spain, Finland and Holland.
In recent days, reports have emerged that John Calipari may be taking a similar approach.
His Arkansas men’s basketball is on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of NIL earnings, with a war chest in the $5 to $6 million range, putting him at the top of the sport. To show how much talent that money has already brought, consider that the two highest-paid Razorbacks next season will almost certainly be Jonas Aidoo and Johnell Davis.
NBA lottery and first round talk
Those star transfers, however, aren’t even among the Razorbacks’ four projected first-round NBA Draft picks in 2025:
No. 15: Zvonimir Ivisic
No. 16: Fland “Boogie”
No. 21: Karter Knox
No. 30: Adou Thiero
Four Razorbacks in the first round would break a program NBA draft record, surpassing the Todd Day/Lee Mayberry/Oliver Miller draft in 1992, when Day was selected in the NBA lottery at No. 8 overall.
But so much talent comes at a price. In fact, according to a report from Keynote USA’ Matt Norlander, Davis, Thiero and Adoo alone have absorbed more than $3 million of the Hogs’ NIL budget.
While we can assume that Ivisic and the incoming freshmen will receive less than seven figures each, it is certain that they will each receive a payout in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Simple math would show that the pot has narrowed significantly for the rest of the roster yet to be filled, and that may explain the delay in announcing DJ Wagner as the next Razorback when it seemed inevitable last week.
However, if Calipari follows Neighbors’ path, he may be able to fill out his roster beyond the 8 or 9 and create the kind of star-studded depth that would push Arkansas into the top 5 in most preseason polls.
According to recent reports, the Arkansas basketball staff is in contact with two teenage basketball stars from Europe who could take their program to the next stratosphere:
Egor Demin: Future NBA lottery pick No. 1
This 17-year-old Russian plays for one of Europe’s top organizations, Real Madrid, and features the kind of sophisticated shooting, touch and pace at 6’9″ that make him an obvious NBA prospect. You only need to look at a few 30 seconds of the following to see that, and for those who have doubts about his explosiveness, be sure to catch the breakaway dunk at :13:
Demin is considered a 2025 NBA lottery pick in some of the mock drafts, including Keynote USA’s.
If Egor Demin decides to spend a year playing in the United States, then Calipari will have to beat out his most trusted former assistants in Orlando Antigua to sign him. After spending the last few years in Kentucky, Antigua now trains with Brad Underwood in Illinois. The Illini join BYU as the apparent favorites for Demin right now.
In fact, there has been a “Trilly” report from the gray area that BYU has even offered Demin something close to $2 million in NIL. At first glance, that seems unlikely given the federal restrictions mentioned above. However, international student-athletes can earn NIL money from passive income, which includes activities such as licensing names and likenesses for trading cards and merchandise.
It is conceivable that some boosters may offer an aggressively high guarantee on such a licensing agreement before commissions on sales come in. Or that the NIL payment may be made before the international player actually receives the student visa. Both may be potential loopholes to exploit.
As for who is contributing the most money to BYU athletics, look no further than businessman Ryan Smith, the owner of the Utah Jazz. As college basketball analyst Aaron Torres says, Smith is “basically the ‘Chicken Man of Utah, the John Tyson of Utah.'”
As in the case of Arkansas, a few million dollars in NIL can make a much bigger difference per player in basketball than in football. In fact, both BYU and Arkansas appear to have brighter prospects in basketball. That contrasts with the playing field where both will enter the 2024 season with some of the smallest odds in their respective conferences to win a title according to college football’s best bets.
Nolan Traoré
The almost 6’5” Frenchman also needs to wait one more year before entering the NBA Draft.
Although he just turned 18, the crafty, steady combo guard already has a lot of Johnell Davis in his game, which explains why he’s also a projected NBA lottery pick in some 2025 mock drafts. (He’s in the ranked number 5 in the NBA Draft Room). It is certainly important for Traore to produce against high-caliber competition, as evidenced by his performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and in the recent clip below:
The fact that Engin and Traore have already competed against grown men as professionals makes them more prepared to step in and contribute at age 18 than most true freshmen coming out of high school. Sure, SEC players may be more athletic than you’re used to, but the skill level and strength wouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, they would have already competed against teams with superior strength, size and skill in Europe.
Calipari knows he needs to rely less on true freshmen in the future, but Engin and Nolan Traore would be the exception to that rule due to their professional experience.
Traore has already visited Alabama, Xavier and Gonzaga and the fact that he has yet to commit to an American university may mean he is determined to continue playing professionally given how well he has done in recent months.
Going to Australia to join the “Next Stars” program is another possibility, Torres says. At this point, it appears Traore is less likely to land in Fayetteville than Demin.
“I’d be surprised if he ends up playing major college basketball in the next year,” Torres said Tuesday.
Possible problem for Arkansas basketball
Bureaucracy surely has the potential to ruin a good time.
The federal law on NIL could be an obstacle for an international star to decide to spend a year in the United States. Finding the money to pay for the termination of his professional contract abroad would also be a factor.
Even if the monetary aspect is good, there is also the possibility that the foreigner will not meet all the academic requirements to enter the university.
While many Europeans study English in school, some basketball players may not be fluent enough to study at an American university. Some of them dropped out of school in their home countries in their mid-teens, so it is unclear where they would be in meeting other entry requirements.
These are complications that work on two levels: with each specific school and with the NCAA in general. Navigating them correctly often takes time.
All this bureaucracy may be enough to keep prospects like Demin and Traore away from university life entirely. Or it may put a temporary damper on things.
As an example, look no further than what happened last season with Zvonimir Ivisic, the first of the former Wildcats to join Calipari at Arkansas. The Croatian committed to Kentucky on August 1, 2023.
“Kentucky fans just think, ‘Okay, great. See you on day 1 of school, we are excited to have you,” says Torres. “And then you find out there are problems with the NCAA. First, there are problems with Kentucky’s own admissions. Then come the problems with the NCAA.”
Ivisic did not arrive on campus in October, then had to take classes part-time before he was finally declared eligible in January 2024.
There’s nothing easy about bringing a top European into the fold in this era, but the teams that can do it well are primed to make big waves come March. And, in the case of projected NBA lottery picks like Egor Demin and Nolan Traore, in June as well.
***
Next, Torres talks about the latest with Demin at the beginning and then moves on to Nolan Traore at 8:20:
More from Irwin and Courtney Mims on foreign player finances at 9:45 p.m. here:
Even at 17, Demin acts like someone who’s already been a pro for a few years:
Several dozen NBA scouts in the building to watch 6-foot-9, 17-year-old Russian guard Egor Demin and Real Madrid. Yesterday he scored 15 points and 9 assists in the first game. pic.twitter.com/fzTv00rH2o
-Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) January 27, 2024
More on Arkansas basketball from BoAS:
Keynote USA
For the Latest Sports News, Follow @Keynote USA Sports on Twitter.