By Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney
MLB Trade Deadline Watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
Injuries have hit the Tampa Bay Rays‘ rotation hard this season. Health should not be taken for granted. However, with two key reinforcements on the way, the Rays may end up being a team to watch when it comes to sellers in the starting pitching market.
Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz are both working their way back from injuries at Triple-A Durham. Club officials believe Baz is on the mend now that he’s healthy, while Springs is lagging behind in terms of what the Rays can expect from him for the rest of the year. If all goes well (and that’s an important clause here; setbacks happen and there’s always the chance someone else gets hurt), then the Rays could end up with one of those “nice problems to have.”
They may soon have to create two openings in their starting rotation, which includes Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot. As things stand, no one deserves to be sent down to the minor leagues. So if things continue on track, a trade is likely to happen.
Of this group, league sources suggested Civale and Littell would be the most likely to be traded. Littell, 28, is making $1.8 million this year and has one more year left before becoming a free agent in 2026. Civale, 29, also won’t be a free agent until 2026 and is making $4.9 million this year.
In addition to making sure they make a full recovery, the Rays also need to take into account any inning limitations their starters like Pepiot may have, if any. That wouldn’t necessarily prevent them from trading one of their seven starters, but it will be a factor.
In addition to what they might do with their starting pitching, the Rays will have to make some decisions regarding their overall strategy for the trade deadline. With a 40-41 record, they are 11 games behind the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles for first place in the American League East, but just four games out of the final wild-card spot. While much can change between now and the July 30 deadline, initial impressions are that the Rays are hesitant to call it a day.
Ultimately, July will dictate the Rays’ fate. However, if president of baseball operations Erik Neander opts to sell, industry sources believe it will not be in the form of a fire sale. The Rays aim to be competitive next season and would avoid the idea of a complete rebuild. This could complicate decisions on a number of players who could prove valuable trade pieces but are also considered assets for next year’s team.
Closer Pete Fairbanks is a clear example.
High-leverage relief pitchers are always in demand at the deadline, and that’s often when relievers are at their greatest value. Although the Rays are not willing to move him yet, many teams will call the 30-year-old right-hander, who has a 3.25 ERA and 12 saves in 14 opportunities.
Fairbanks is in the second year of a three-year, $12 million contract and the Rays have a team option for 2026. He’s a value-added player and a valuable piece to their roster. While they’d prefer to keep Fairbanks, at least for now, Tampa Bay could have plenty of options in the coming weeks.
Yankees and Rangers eye Cubs
There was silence at Oracle Park Thursday morning as Chicago Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger chatted with San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman. About three hours before the first pitch, they stood on the outfield grass where Chapman had brought his dog to run and play fetch. They are good friends who occasionally train together during the offseason in Arizona. They are also two of Scott Boras’ high-profile clients who remained on the free agent market last winter and ultimately signed contracts only after the start of spring training.
But even when things seem quiet, the business side of the game never stops.
As the Cubs struggle to gain ground in the playoff race, teams like the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have recently had a notable scouting presence on the club, a league source said. If the trend continues for the Cubs, Bellinger’s name will likely become a hotly discussed name again near the deadline, as it was last season.
In the midst of those trade rumors a year ago, when the Yankees were involved, Bellinger led the Cubs on an MVP-level run. He remains a well-rounded, productive player who bats left-handed and creates flexibility by being able to handle first base and all three outfield positions. But he acknowledged that his production (.759 OPS) had not met his own personal standards or expectations when he returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million contract, which includes buyout clauses after the first two seasons.
“I hope to do a lot more,” Bellinger said. “I hope to play better.”
Buying or selling is always a complex decision for undecided teams, and executives would have to take into account Bellinger’s contract structure, which could essentially make him a rental hitter or potentially a big-money commitment through 2026.
Bellinger stressed that he believes a change of direction is coming: “We still have time. We have a good team.”
The Cubs were not designed to sell at the trade deadline. His management has been making changes around the edges of the roster, trying to gradually improve a team that has 19 one-run losses, the most in the majors. But rivals have to be prepared in case things get even worse and the Cubs change direction.
The Cubs are already six games under .500 and 10 1/2 games out of first place. They narrowly avoided a four-game sweep in the Bay Area with Thursday’s 10-inning victory over the Giants, another of nine National League teams grouped behind the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card field.
Mets on the fence after surge
The New York Mets have yet to make any directional decisions regarding the trade deadline, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking, and how they continue to play will determine their approach.
Perhaps more than any other National League team, the Mets have shown how much things can turn around in a few weeks. On June 2, they were 11 games under .500. On Wednesday night, after overwhelming the New York Yankees in the Subway Series, they moved to 39-39.
If they continue to look like a team that should look to buy at the deadline, bullpen help (even before Edwin Diaz’s suspension and Drew Smith’s elbow injury) stands out as an obvious need. On the sales side, the Mets have a host of players on expiring contracts, such as starter Luis Severino, designated hitter JD Martínez and first baseman Pete Alonso, who could keep them busy when the deadline arrives in a month.
And, of course, from a speculative point of view, some hybrid style of buying and selling should not be ruled out either.
(Civalé photo: Charles LeClaire/USA Today)
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