With two days until the first round of the NHL Draft and five before the opening of free agency, one thing is very clear about the Toronto Maple Leafs.
They have been extremely busy behind the scenes these last seven weeks since their season ended, looking to improve their roster at basically every position and in every way possible.
Everyone you chat with in NHL circles has had a conversation with Leafs general manager Brad Treliving or someone in the front office, including other teams and agents of top free agents.
With the Leafs seemingly involved in everyone and everything, it’s a little tricky to parse where exactly they’ll land in terms of additions this offseason. But here’s what we’re hearing as the league’s silly season heats up this week in Las Vegas.
1. The Leafs were runners-up to Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom last week, losing to the New Jersey Devils despite having what some might consider a better asset package on the table. At least they were offering something comparable in a very real bid for the 34-year-old.
Included in that offer was Toronto’s first-round pick for the upcoming draft, showing how seriously Treliving was pursuing the upgrade in net. (Trading with the Flames remains tricky, however, given Treliving’s abrupt departure from Calgary last spring.)
Without Markstrom, and with Linus Ullmark heading to Ottawa on Monday, it’s unlikely the Leafs will be able to fill their goaltending need through a trade. Nashville has given teams the impression that they will hold on to Juuse Saros, the other top goaltender who appeared to be in play this summer.
Which means the Leafs will almost certainly be left searching for a tandem goaltender in free agency. Laurent Brossoit, who has put up good numbers in limited action in recent years, remains a likely option, but Panthers backup Anthony Stolarz, Nashville’s Kevin Lankinen and Cam Talbot, last year’s No. 1 in Los Angeles, Are others.
The league’s goaltender market is really in flux right now with all the movement (which also included the Capitals’ trade of Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles), but the two-year, $2.5 million contract dollars per season that Alex Nedeljkovic signed to stay in Pittsburgh should be considered the right ballpark value for those unrestricted free agent options. But his AAV could rise if bidding wars materialize.
However, rumors that Joseph Woll is close to renewing his contract should come as no surprise to anyone, as the organization is very mindful of his future. They won’t want to block his path with any additions they make now that Markstrom and others are unavailable, so a short-term commitment is expected with any signing.
2. Judging by all the conversations Treliving is having around the league, goaltending isn’t the Leafs’ top priority.
What will happen should not be a big surprise. The Leafs are determined to improve their defense, and especially the right side of it.
Ideally, the Leafs would address the need by trading rather than paying a premium for multiple defensemen in free agency. The problem? They have a limited pool of assets to deal with: their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, the pending RFAs of Timothy Liljegren and Nick Robertson, and potentially, Mitch Marner.
Toronto will be in contention for all the top UFA defensemen on July 1st. Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov are two of the leading candidates, although both can re-sign with their current teams in Dallas and Vancouver. Brady Skjei and Brandon Montour will also likely receive offers from any teams looking to add D.
Brad Treliving has a lot on his plate this offseason. (RJ Johnston/Toronto Star via /Keynote USA/Getty Images)
Tanev, unsurprisingly, is the Leafs’ biggest draw.
One path they could take with the 34-year-old in particular is to extend the term of his offer. Instead of offering the four-year deal Tanev is considering, the Leafs could increase the number of years on the deal to lower the salary cap to a more favorable number.
That would help the team this summer and beyond, knowing that Tanev is unlikely to play through the entire term of the deal.
Another top-four option for Toronto that hasn’t received much fanfare to date would be Blue Jays linebacker Matt Roy, a right-handed shooter who logged 21 minutes a night last season and brings a solid two-way game. The Leafs are believed to be interested, even though he could command closer to $6 million per season on a long-term deal.
Prices for free agent defensemen are likely to be high overall. Some teams have so much cap space right now that they could pursue a strategy of offering short-term contracts at high AAVs to win bidding wars.
The Leafs have nearly $20 million to spend this offseason, but that includes new contracts for their three RFAs (Liljegren, Robertson and Connor Dewar) and the need to sign at least one goaltender, two defensemen and one forward.
(One under-the-radar challenge facing the Leafs is the possibility of a costly award for Liljegren in arbitration. It may make his move this summer difficult.)
It will be tight, but it’s possible Treliving could add two impact defenders with those dollars. Or a big swing RD and a familiar face to play deeper in the lineup (Joel Edmundson or Ilya Lyubushkin) who will come a little later and cheaper in free agency.
Although Jake McCabe played his best hockey on the right side last season, he will likely land on the left side again next season, assuming the Leafs can find the righties they want this summer.
3. The other somewhat surprising strategy the Leafs will have in free agency will be to reinforce what they have on the wing. In an ideal world, they would like to add a center, but the market does not have great options.
They seem unlikely to be among the biggest names on the wing, given their other needs and limited cap space, but the group of second-tier talent is attracting Treliving’s attention.
Two former Blues who played under new coach Craig Berube, David Perron and Dakota Joshua, are two players the Leafs like. So is Jake DeBrusk. Those three are also indicative of the type of tough, playoff-ready reinforcements they will try to add up front to play with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares.
David Perron could fit comfortably under new Leafs coach Craig Berube. (André Ringuette/NHLI via /Keynote USA/Getty Images)
The Leafs have a lot of forwards under contract, especially once they signed their RFAs, but with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi likely heading to the open market on Monday, they are two players who played in the top six for most of last season . and produced a total of 90 points that need to be replaced somehow.
Easton Cowan can’t do much.
The Leafs aren’t against bringing back Bertuzzi and Domi, but they want to keep most of their cap space available until July 1 for defense. His return to Toronto may depend on being able to return after the initial wave of UFA signings take place across the league on Monday.
4. The wild card in all of this is (yes, we know, you’re tired of hearing about this) what’s going on with Mitch Marner. If he is treated, he could meet one of the needs mentioned above. It could also open up more cap space.
And it could leave them even weaker on the wings and in terms of scoring power.
From what we’re hearing, the Leafs, in their exploration of a Marner trade through calls to teams around the league, are already getting a good idea of the challenges involved in making this deal.
One, in particular, appears to be the lack of teams to whom a) Marner would likely accept a trade that can b) accommodate his $10.9 million cap hit for next season and c) be willing to return pieces that the Leafs find attractive, which ideally it would include an impact defenseman.
There’s also the extent that Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, would have to work with said team, assuming Marner even consents to the trade.
The timeline alone appears to militate against a trade, as does the fact that his team continues to convey that they have no intention of waiving a no-movement clause to facilitate a deal.
But, as mentioned, the Leafs are certainly exploring all of their roster options right now, including what could be available in exchange for Marner.
5. The Leafs currently have $52 million in cap space for the summer of 2025. And only six forwards, two defensemen and no goaltenders have signed.
Free agency will obviously have an impact on this, as any UFA goalie or defenseman they sign is likely to have some term. Extensions for Woll and someone like McCabe will also end that abundance.
Even with those hypothetical contracts included, however, they’re looking at $30 million to play for, two goaltenders and most of the blue line under contract, and some gaping holes up front.
It would be a mistake for the Leafs to look past this season, given that their core is still in their prime, but they’re likely to be even bigger players in the silly season a year from now, regardless of what they do this week.
The Core Four might get one more chance, thanks to all those NMCs, but the Leafs will have a chance to drastically reshape their core over the next 13 months, no matter what.
(Top photo by Chris Tanev: Ashley Potts/NHLI via /Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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