By Ken Rosenthal, Patrick Mooney and Katie Woo
MLB Trade Deadline Watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
In recent weeks, the White Sox have assigned top scouts to focus on the Padres, Dodgers and Mariners farm systems, according to sources briefed on scouting moves. Those three clubs have shown interest in several White Sox players, but they are far from the only ones committed to Chicago in potential trades.
Still, the White Sox’s scouting activity could be an indication of how they will approach the deadline. If they rely on field scouts, it means they probably want prospects with great tools. The Padres, Dodgers and Mariners have those types of players in considerable supply.
As previously reported, White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet is a target of the Padres. Reliever Michael Kopech and outfielder Tommy Pham are among the other possible candidates, and Padres general manager AJ Preller remains aggressive, or is he impatient? – in discussions.
The Dodgers also like Crochet and center fielder Luis Robert Jr., Major League sources said. The Mariners, whose combined outfield OPS ranks 23rd in the majors, could clearly use Robert. But unless Robert warms up, the White Sox fear that if they trade him at the deadline, they will be selling him cheap.
Robert, who will turn 27 on August 3, missed almost two months with a right hip flexor strain. Through Sunday, he had hit just .191 with a .265 on-base percentage since his return. His seven home runs raised his OPS to .737, but he has been inconsistent and not a game-changer.
That may all change in the next month, but Robert’s frequent injuries, few walks and high strikeout rates are a concern for interested clubs.
Teams will likely want to see more before giving up what the White Sox want for a player who hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases last season. Robert is owed the remainder of his salary of $12.5 million in 2024 and $15 million in 2025. His deal also includes club options of $20 million for 2026 and 2027.
Will AJ Preller deal with the Padres’ top prospects?
While several people in the game are speculating that Preller is trying to bolster his roster to save his job, what would be the difference between this supposedly desperate version of Preller and the way he normally acts as a general manager?
A litmus test for Preller will be whether to move Leodalis De Vries, a 17-year-old shortstop whom the Padres signed from the Dominican Republic last January for $4.2 million.
De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are believed to be as untouchable as any player in the Padres system. The Padres are telling clubs they don’t want to trade them. But in the case of De Vries, is it possible that Preller is taking that stance just to whet the appetite of interested clubs? As Preller has shown previously, if he can acquire the right player, no prospect is off limits to him.
In her second professional game, 17-year-old Leodalis DeVries is quickly racking up first-place finishes:
✔️ 1B
✔️SB
✔️2B@Parents | @Tormenta_Baseball pic.twitter.com/9Xj0C7riri
– MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 24, 2024
Juan Soto was an example. To achieve this, Preller parted ways with left-hander MacKenzie Gore and outfielder James Wood, among others. Dylan Cease was another highly desired target. Preller initially resisted including right-hander Drew Thorpe in that deal, according to a source briefed on the discussions, but eventually relented.
As things stand, no player of the caliber of Soto or even Cease appears to be available at the deadline. The Padres have other players of interest, including left-hander Robby Snelling and right-handers Dylan Lesko and Adam Mazur. But Preller, following the death of late Padres owner Peter Seidler, is working with new bosses. It remains to be seen how that influences his behavior.
Potential targets for starting pitchers decline
The fallout from the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval and the Marlins’ Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett hitting the disabled list over the weekend?
Demand for starting pitchers is virtually certain to outstrip supply, so teams will need to find internal solutions.
The Guardians, for example, are discussing how to best keep their own pitchers healthy and effective while developing creative options in their own system, according to sources briefed on their thinking.
That’s not to say the Guardians will give up trying to add a starter. But even if they do, they will need additional help. Right-hander Gavin Williams, out for the season with elbow inflammation, is expected to return next week. Left-hander Joey Cantillo, a prospect who recently returned from a left hamstring strain, is going strong at Triple A.
While the Guardians are getting great work from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, the return to form of fellow right-hander Triston McKenzie could be a crucial development.
McKenzie, who made only four starts last season due to a sprained elbow, appears to be increasingly comfortable throwing hard again. He’s shown improvement in his average fastball velocity in his three most recent outings, jumping from 92.5 mph to 94.3 to 95. The trick now is for him to regain control and look more like the pitcher he was in 2022, when he had an ERA of 2.96. in 191 1/3 innings.
Kyle Hendricks’ coming full circle moment
Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks will mark 10 years of major league service time on Wednesday and will get full protection without changes. Those right-handers of 10 and 5 (10 years in the majors and the last five consecutive seasons with the same team) represent a moment of coming full circle for one of the most important pitchers in franchise history.
Kyle Hendricks pitches in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. (Gene J. Puskar/Pool Photo via USA Today)
At the 2012 trade deadline, Hendricks ended up going to the Cubs organization only after Ryan Dempster had previously used his no-trade power to veto a deal with the Braves. In the proposed trade, the Cubs would have received Randall Delgado, a pitcher they would not have started in a Game 7, an assignment Hendricks handled in stride during the 2016 World Series.
With Dempster’s hopes of going to the Dodgers fading and Atlanta no longer an option, the Cubs committed to the Rangers and executed the type of trade that selling teams dream of every summer.
Hendricks wasn’t the highest-rated prospect included in the deal (third baseman Christian Villanueva had a higher profile at the time), but an outside source familiar with the Texas farm system recommended the delicate Dartmouth pitcher. That scouting advice on Hendricks combined with Dempster’s deliberations helped transform Chicago’s rebuild.
This time of year, executives are glued to their phones, constantly trying to assess the trade deadline outlook while simultaneously preparing for the Draft. Scouts follow players for years, gradually accumulating information and hoping their voices will be heard when it comes time to make last-minute decisions. Sophisticated computer programs can project future value. But some of this is just random.
“Just another lucky roll of the dice,” said Hendricks, the last remaining player on the Cubs from the 2016 championship team. “That’s how everyone’s journey happens. You don’t get to this level without luck, so there have been a lot of things that have gone right for me, being in the right place at the right time.
Among all the Ivy League athletes who have made it to Major League Baseball, the NFL, the NBA and the NHL, the Dartmouth graduate is believed to have earned the most money ($84.8 million) through his professional contracts as a player, according to research and information from sources. The best comparison would probably be Ryan Fitzpatrick, the former NFL quarterback out of Harvard who earned approximately $82 million during his playing career, according to Spotrac.
Hendricks has also produced more WAR (21.9, according to Baseball-Reference) than any other Ivy League player during the MLB draft era (since 1965). That group includes two players-turned-executives who could disrupt this year’s trade deadline: Rangers general manager Chris Young (Princeton) and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow (Yale).
A’s closer Mason Miller will be one of the most sought-after arms at this deadline. He will also come with a lofty price tag, one that was exponentially high in late April and doesn’t seem likely to come down in July. High-leverage relievers are often the most coveted trade pieces for contending teams, and there is arguably no better reliever in baseball this year than Miller. His 101 mph four-seamer has impressed hitters all season, giving him the highest chase rate (39.7 percent), strikeout percentage (42.4 percent) and strikeout percentage (46.5 percent) in the league.
It’s the obvious play to connect contending teams with Miller. With five weeks left until the trade deadline, there are only a handful of teams besides the A’s (the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies) that are considered real sellers. In theory, Oakland should capitalize on a market that will clearly favor the seller. There’s no scenario where Miller isn’t moved at the deadline, right?
Not quite. Some industry sources believe Oakland’s asking price for Miller will be considered too high and that the 25-year-old will remain in the Bay Area this season.
“I don’t think they’re going to move him,” a league source said. “He’s too premium a guy.”
Oakland’s point of view boils down to the abundance of team control Miller has left. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. Free agency is off the table until 2030. By trading for Miller, a team would be acquiring one of baseball’s top relief arms along with five and a half years of control. That will allow the A’s to essentially set their price, and that price will be nothing short of aggressive, if not unreasonable.
“(Oakland) will ask for too much,” the source said. “It’s going to be absurd. They have too much control over him. There aren’t many star guys right now who are super controllable. It would have to be an incredibly good package.
“Never say never, but he is very controllable and is a fundamental part of his team. “I think they would have to be impressed.”
(Top photo by Garrett Crochet: Quinn Harris//Keynote USA/Getty Images)
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